Mohammad Amiri – Expert on International Affairs

The Gap Between Pressure Theory and On-the-Ground Reality

The architects of the maximum pressure strategy never imagined a day would come when Iran would not only avoid collapse but compel them to request a ceasefire. Washington today finds itself precisely in such a position. Senior analysts at the American Brandeis University, in an article published by this think tank, have emphasized that Iran has endured decades of sanctions and economic pressure, and its capacity for adaptation to the conditions it faces has never been eliminated. Although the costs are extremely heavy, no signs of imminent collapse or strategic submission are visible.

The reaction of Western actors to this resilience indicates helplessness in confronting an unpredicted phenomenon. A recent report from The New Yorker reveals that the current ceasefire between Iran and the United States bears no resemblance to classical ceasefires at all. Analysts at this publication have termed it a “non-ceasefire ceasefire”—a situation in which neither full-scale war is underway nor has sustainable peace been established. Donald Trump, who once spoke of Iran’s rapid defeat, now seeks to sign a one-page memorandum to halt hostilities. The American negotiating team consists not of seasoned diplomats but of the President’s son-in-law and close friend, both of whom are real estate investors.

In contrast, the Iranian delegation is led by senior executive managers and professional politicians. The Speaker of Parliament and Iran’s Foreign Minister have not only demanded the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets but have also requested war reparations and the right to control the Strait of Hormuz—conditions that reflect confidence stemming from proven deterrence.

The Cost of War for Its Perpetrators and Supporters

Perhaps the most compelling evidence of the resistance strategy’s success lies in examining the costs borne by the aggressors themselves and their allies and supporters. The International Monetary Fund has projected severely negative economic growth for Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2026: Qatar at -14.7 percent, Kuwait at -4.2 percent, Bahrain at -3.8 percent, the UAE at -1.9 percent, and Saudi Arabia at -1.4 percent.

However, the costs for the American side may be even more painful. A report from the Congressional Budget Office in mid-May 2026 announced that the cost of constructing, deploying, and operating the “Golden Dome” system to protect American territory over the next twenty years will be $1.2 trillion—a figure seven times greater than the Trump administration’s initial estimate, which some analysts believe is still lower than actual needs. One analyst has warned that the ratio of this system’s interceptors to enemy missiles could be as high as 1,000 to 1, and even $1.2 trillion may not suffice for complete defense. These are costs that were never previously factored into Washington’s strategic calculations and have now become a determining variable.

A Deadlock Called Costly Victory

Under such circumstances, claims of “victory” are neither heard nor tenable. A recent report from the Quincy Institute, citing a former senior military intelligence official of the Zionist regime, indicates that Netanyahu’s objective is to create a “state of endless war” with Iran—a strategy of “mowing the grass,” meaning periodic attacks to prevent the enemy from accumulating power. However, Iranians are in no way willing to accept such a situation in regional equations.

A senior analyst at the Chatham House Middle East institute also emphasized in an interview with The New Yorker that the international order has become severely fragmented and is no longer capable of providing solutions for sustainable peace. In such an environment, temporary ceasefires themselves become the new normal—a situation bearing no trace of peace yet granting no license for resuming full-scale war. Washington seeks a rapid, demonstrative victory, while Tehran seeks to consolidate the new equation. Now, after months of conflict, the on-the-ground reality is that none of the initial objectives of the US and Zionist regime’s war against Iran have been achieved. The inability to defeat Iran, the inability to fully control the Strait of Hormuz, and the inability to prevent the reconstruction of Iran’s military capabilities are not minor indicators. Perhaps the most significant achievement is nothing other than proving the proposition that maximum pressure, however severe, cannot bring a country with strong social backing and high capacity for adaptation and resilience to its knees. America now seeks a pathway to exit the quagmire—not out of benevolence, but due to calculations regarding the staggering costs of continuing the war—and this constitutes a strategic defeat.