Nader Entessar emphasized that no US president, including Biden, can bring about meaningful changes in US-Iran relations in short to medium terms. He said if Biden wins the US foreign policy will turn to multilateralism with the first priority being improving Trans-Atlantic relations.<\/p>\n
When asked about the possible political turmoil that could lead to Supreme Court decision on the winner of the election, he said that If there is a contested election in 2020 and the matter is referred to the Supreme Court, I believe most of the Trump-friendly Supreme Court Justices will put him back in the White House.<\/p>\n
The following is an email interview with Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science in University of South Alabama:<\/p>\n
Q1: According to the polls, Trump did a better job in his second presidential debate than his performance in the first debate. Is this going to have any effect on people who have not voted yet?<\/strong><\/p>\n The polls that were taken after the second presidential debate indicated that the debate did not impact the standing of either of the two candidates in the polls.\u00a0 In fact, studies have shown that presidential debates in recent years have shockingly had little effect on election outcomes and that this year\u2019s US presidential debates have been the least consequential in decades.\u00a0 In my judgment, presidential debates have lost their usefulness in recent decades.<\/p>\n Q2: Coronavirus once again is on the surge in the US, and this time the virus has even infected the White House. Some sources say that three to five of Trump\u2019s aides now have COVID-19. Yet the President\u2019s Chief of Staff Mark Meadows admits that the \u201cTrump administration is not going to control the pandemic\u201d and it just hopes for a vaccine to come to the market soon. How these latest developments in coronavirus situation change the election game?<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Coronavirus Reduced Trump\u2019s Chances of Victory<\/strong><\/p>\n The Trump administration\u2019s handling of the novel coronavirus has been haphazard and chaotic from the beginning.\u00a0 As COVID-19 continues to take massive tolls on the lives of many Americans, more and more people are now recognizing the Trump administration\u2019s approach towards this pandemic has been disastrous.\u00a0 There is no question that Trump\u2019s policies in this regard will be detrimental to his reelection chances.\u00a0 However, Trump\u2019s hard-core supporters continue to look for culprits elsewhere rather than blame Trump for the disaster that has been ravaging the fabric of the American society.<\/p>\n Q3: It seems that Biden has not been successful in attracting young black voters in Florida. Last time in 2012, Obama won the election by winning this swing state. Do you think Biden could undo his possible Florida defeat by winning another important swing state such as Pennsylvania? How do you predict the results in these two states?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Pennsylvania, Biden\u2019s Winning Card <\/strong><\/p>\n Biden needs to win at least six or seven swing states in order to garner enough Electoral College votes to win the upcoming presidential election.\u00a0 Florida is an important swing state with its 29 electoral votes. Polls indicate that Trump and Biden are in a virtual dead heat in Florida. Therefore, Florida can go either way, but if Biden loses Florida, he can compensate for his loss thereby winning another important swing state like Pennsylvania. In the final analysis, ten states will be crucial in determining the winner of the 2020 presidential election in the United States.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Obama\u2019s Meager Share in Biden\u2019s Victory <\/strong><\/p>\n Q4: Barack Obama\u2019s strategy for winning two elections in a row was to persuade the young blacks under 30 and Latinos to vote whereas Trump\u2019s strategy was to get the votes of white elderlies that had not voted since Ronald Reagan\u2019s era. So, how do you see Biden\u2019s campaign to persuade those who usually do not vote? <\/strong><\/p>\n Obama has recognized the gravity of the situation in American politics today and thus has decided to actively campaign on Biden\u2019s behalf.\u00a0 Obama is still a popular figure in American society and carries weight among the younger generation in the United States.\u00a0 Although Obama\u2019s active role in this year\u2019s presidential campaign is important for Biden, but given the fact Obama has entered the fray rather than late in the game, I am not sure if his campaign will have a noticeable impact on the voter turnout among the youth, especially those in the minority communities.<\/p>\n Q5: Now that Barack Obama strengthens his support for Biden\u2019s presidency and even addressed people in Miami, it seems that Trump recognized the opportunity and insisted on the same differences that in 2016 allowed him to win the White House seat. How do you see Obama\u2019s role in future of Joe Biden possible presidency?<\/strong><\/p>\n Elderly and retirees who live in Florida have long been among the most ardent supporters of the Republican Party. Trump was able to get their support in 2016 and win Florida. However, this year, there is a growing unease among the retirees in Florida due to Trump\u2019s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic and socio-economic instability that has characterized his presidency. For example, signs in support of Biden and the Democrats are propping up in The Villages, the largest retirement community in Florida; something that was unimaginable four years ago.\u00a0 Therefore, Obama\u2019s campaign may help Biden, but as I indicated in my previous answer, at best Obama may be able to help Biden\u2019s campaign on the margins.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q6: If Joe Biden wins, what will change in current US foreign policy? Will the Democrats’ win invalidate Trump’s isolationist policies at the international and transatlantic level? What will be the fate of the US approach in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf?<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Boosting Multilateralism Will Be Biden\u2019s Priority<\/strong><\/p>\n If Biden becomes the next US president, we will see a shift away from the unpredictability that US foreign policy has displayed under Trump.\u00a0 Multilateralism strengthening the frayed Trans-Atlantic ties will be given priority.\u00a0 Under Trump, the US State Department has become highly politicized and a general trend towards unprofessionalism has permeated the fabric of this institution. Biden will most likely try to remedy the damage that has been inflicted on this important institution and its diplomatic corps.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Washington\u2019s Central Policy towards Iran Will Not Change <\/strong><\/p>\n However, we should not expect a major change in US policies towards Iran. US-Iran problems are more than forty years old now. The myriad US sanctions against Iran are very complex and involve many institutional obstacles, both in the United States and Iran. Even under best circumstances, no US president, including Biden, can bring about meaningful changes in US-Iran relations in short to medium terms.\u00a0\u00a0 Some of the Trump administration\u2019s most egregious behaviour, especially its use of foul and undiplomatic language, will most likely be changed under Biden\u2019s presidency, but such changes are symbolic and not substantive in policy terms towards Iran.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q7: In recent weeks, Trump said many times that if he loses the election, he will not accept the result because probably \u201cDemocrats cheated.\u201d The conservative judge Amy Barrett will soon become the ninth member of the US Supreme Court turning the Court\u2019s balance into six conservatives and three liberals. If Trump did not accept the result of his election failure, to what extent the Supreme Court\u2019s decision would be in favour of the Republicans?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Supreme Court Will Declare Trump the Winner!<\/strong><\/p>\n More than a quarter of federal judges today are Trump appointees, and with the appointment of Judge Barrett, three of the current Supreme Court Justices will be also Trump appointees. Even if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, he will have a lasting and generational impact on the fabric of the US judiciary. If there is a contested election in 2020 and the matter is referred to the Supreme Court, I believe most of the Trump-friendly Supreme Court Justices will put Trump back in the White House. This is what Trump has counted on for some time now, and that is why he and his Republican allies in the Senate are rushing to have Judge Barrett approved as the ninth member of the Supreme Court in case the outcome of this year\u2019s presidential election is to be decided by the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n Q8: Republican dominance in the Supreme Court could last for decades, so some say that Biden will increase the number of the Supreme Court judges to end this superiority before it starts. Do you think it is possible within the United States constitution? Has this sort of action been taken before by a US president? <\/strong><\/p>\n Biden\u2019s Possible Attempt to Change the Supreme Court\u2019s Ruling Will Be Doomed<\/strong><\/p>\n Changing the number of Supreme Court Justices is not an easy task. Article III, Section 1 of the US Constitution states: \u201cThe judicial Power of the United States shall be vested in one supreme Court and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish.\u201d<\/p>\n Therefore, under the Constitution, the number of Supreme Court Justices is not fixed.\u00a0 However, the US Congress can change it by passing a judiciary act that requires the President\u2019s approval and signature.\u00a0\u00a0 The Judiciary Act of 1789 established the first Supreme Court, with six Justices.\u00a0 There have been several other similar acts that have changed the number of Supreme Court justices.\u00a0 Since the passage of the Judiciary Act of 1869, the number of Supreme Court Justices has remained nine.\u00a0 In 1937, President Franklin Roosevelt, frustrated by obstacles created against the implementation of his New Deal socio-economic programs, attempted to increase the size of the Supreme Court by adding new Justices who sympathized with his policies.\u00a0 But this endeavour proved futile and President Roosevelt his ill-fated threat to enlarge the Supreme Court.\u00a0 Although increasing the number of Supreme Court Justices, or \u201ccourt-packing\u201d as it is generally referred to, is popular among some progressive circles in the United States, history shows that such a move is a non-starter and is doomed to failure.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Nader Entessar <\/strong><\/p>\n Professor Emeritus of Political Science<\/strong><\/p>\n University of South Alabama<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Strategic Council Online: A political science professor in University of South Alabama believes that if Joe Biden wins the US Presidential election on November 3, it would come with symbolic changes in Washington policy toward Iran not substantive policy changes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":128275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13289,17,12726],"tags":[15582,22616,24928,22602,15585,24926,15493,16661,24927,17643,15581,33399,24925],"class_list":["post-128331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-democrat-party","tag-election-campaign","tag-florida","tag-iran","tag-joe-biden","tag-nader-entessar","tag-nuclear-agreement","tag-obama","tag-pennsylvania","tag-presidential-elections","tag-republican-party","tag-33399","tag-supreme-court-justices"],"yoast_head":"\n