In an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website, Seyyed Vahid Karimi stated: The Liberal Party of Canada, led by Mark Carney, retained power in the general election on April 28, 2025, winning 167 out of 343 seats in the House of Commons, but did not achieve an absolute majority. This fragile victory occurred at a time when US President Donald Trump had strained relations between the two countries by threatening to impose heavy tariffs and making controversial statements about the annexation of Canada. The Liberals needed to win 172 out of 343 seats in the House of Commons to gain a majority that would allow them to govern without the support of small parties. In his victory speech in Ottawa, Carney acknowledged that \u201cour old relationship with the United States, a relationship built on increasing integration, is over.\u201d He added, “The global free trade system that America founded, the system that Canada has relied on since World War II, the system that, while not perfect, brought decades of prosperity, is now over.\u201d The Canadian prime minister said, \u201cThe months ahead will be difficult and require sacrifice.\u201d<\/p>\n
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US territorial claims: a real threat or a tool for pressure?<\/strong><\/p>\n Karimi considered Donald Trump\u2019s claim that Canada would become the \u201c51st state\u201d of the United States, devoid of practical support and part of the US president\u2019s sensationalist tactics. He stated: \u201cCanada, with its long history of political independence and its status as a member of the Commonwealth, has a strong national identity and sovereignty. This claim is more of a political pressure and attention-grabbing claim and is unlikely to lead to practical action.\u201d<\/p>\n He pointed to the firm response of Mark Carney, the new Canadian Prime Minister, who declared in his victory speech in Ottawa: \u201cAmerica wants our resources, water, and land, but this will never happen.\u201d The former diplomat of our country in New York considered this stance a sign of Carney\u2019s strategy to strengthen nationalism and attract domestic and international support. He added: \u201cWith his recent trip to Europe and meeting with British and French officials, Carney has attracted the support of the Commonwealth and the European Union to counter American pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n Citing Trump\u2019s political record, Karimi stated: \u201cHe often uses major threats to gain diplomatic or economic concessions, but domestic and international constraints, such as opposition from the US Congress or the reaction of NATO allies, prevent these threats from being implemented. He concluded, \u201cThis claim, although provoking tension, will not become a real challenge to the territorial integrity of this country, given Carney\u2019s response and the support of Canada\u2019s allies.\u201d However, the analyst also noted that \u201cCanada is not an independent country anymore, but is under Britain’s political and diplomatic protection.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tariff War: Canada\u2019s Economic Challenge and Strategic Responses<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Karimi discussed the tariff war’s impact on the Canadian economy, describing it as one of the biggest challenges for the Liberal government. He stated: \u201cAs of March 2025, the US government has imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which has put a heavy burden on the Canadian economy.\u201d<\/p>\n Referring to Canada\u2019s 75% dependence on the US for foreign trade, he considered these tariffs a lose-lose equation that increases the cost of living for Canadians and threatens the country\u2019s economic growth.<\/p>\n According to the former diplomat of the Islamic Republic of Iran in New York, \u201cThe Carney government has responded to this challenge with two strategies; first, imposing reciprocal tariffs on $42 billion of American goods, which represents an aggressive approach to defending Canadian interests; and second, diversifying trading partners by strengthening the free trade agreement with the European Union (CETA) and negotiations with Asian countries such as Japan and India.\u201d Of course, he considered these measures a positive step, but insufficient to compensate for the losses fully, adding: \u201cThe Canadian economy continues to face high inflation, a housing crisis, and public discontent, which make it difficult to implement these policies.\u201d<\/p>\n Emphasizing Carney\u2019s experience as a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Karimi stated: \u201cCarney can guide the Canadian economy by managing global financial crises, such as the 2008 crisis and Brexit.\u201d However, he warned that Carney\u2019s minority government, with only 167 seats, will need the support of smaller parties like the New Democrats to advance these strategies, which will increase political fragility. He added: \u201cFailure to manage this challenge could lead to the strengthening of the Conservatives led by Pierre Pouliore in the next election.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Iran-Canada Relations: Opportunities and Challenges<\/strong><\/p>\n Karimi also discussed the prospects for Iran-Canada relations under the new Liberal government, stating that the victory of Mark Carney and the Liberals in the Canadian elections will not bring about a significant change in these relations. He said, \u201cBilateral relations are influenced by the macro policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Canada\u2019s domestic priorities, especially reducing tensions with the United States.\u201d Vahid Karimi pointed to Carney\u2019s focus on reviving the economy and managing relations with Washington, which has sidelined Iran-related issues.<\/p>\n The former diplomat considered one of the obstacles to improving relations to be the approach of Iranians living in Canada. He stated: \u201cThe 400,000-member Iranian community in Canada could have acted as a bridge to enhance relations.\u201d Karimi suggested that \u201cinitiatives such as conciliatory messages from Iran or more constructive engagement with this community could pave the way for improving relations in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Strategic Council Online \u2013 Interview: A former Iranian diplomat said: Although Donald Trump\u2019s territorial claims will not be a serious threat to the new Canadian government, the tariff war could burden the Canadian economy and the new government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":344199,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13289,17,12726],"tags":[20541,42918,12741,42920,42919,12872,12870],"class_list":["post-344227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-canada","tag-canadian-general-election","tag--en","tag-mark-carney-en","tag-seyyed-vahid-karimi-en"],"yoast_head":"\n