{"id":344485,"date":"2025-05-28T20:33:47","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T16:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/344485\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\/"},"modified":"2025-05-28T20:33:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T16:03:47","slug":"an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/344485\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\/","title":{"rendered":"An Analytical Look at the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mehdi Seif Tabrizi \u2013 Researcher on Russian and Caucasus Affairs<\/em>
\nThis agreement, rooted in months of tense negotiations between the two countries, originated from Zelenskyy\u2019s initial proposal during the Biden administration called the \u201cVictory Plan.\u201d However, this proposal gradually became a point of contention and a source of tension in the volatile relations between Kyiv and Washington. Ultimately, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine\u2019s president, had no choice but to sign the agreement, as failure to do so could have led to a profound rupture in Ukraine\u2019s relations with Donald Trump\u2019s America. The key difference is that the United States. Eventually, it agreed to drop some of its core demands regarding the mineral contract. At the same time, Zelenskyy failed to incorporate security guarantees from the U.S. into the bilateral agreement.
\nIn reality, this agreement appears more favorable to Ukraine than some earlier versions, but it brings no clear future for Kyiv, neither at the peace negotiation table nor on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

Key Provisions of the New Agreement<\/strong>
\nBased on the 10-page document and its two-page annexes, the United States and Ukraine will establish a joint investment recovery fund to attract global capital for Ukraine. Full ownership and control of resources and mines within Ukraine\u2019s territory and territorial waters will remain with Kyiv, and the Ukrainian government will determine where and which materials are to be extracted. The investment fund is structured as a 50\/50 equal partnership, meaning Kyiv and Washington have equal shares in its joint management. According to Ukraine\u2019s Ministry of Economy website, \u201cneither party will have a dominant voice in the fund, reflecting an equal partnership between Ukraine and the U.S.\u201d Contributions to the fund will be in cash and only through new authorizations for critical materials, oil, and gas projects. Meanwhile, Washington has the option to consider new military aid to Kyiv as a contribution or payment of its share to the fund. Income and contributions to the fund will not be taxed in either the U.S. or Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The investment period for the fund is 10 years. During this time, the fund\u2019s income will be exclusively invested in new projects or Ukraine\u2019s reconstruction, with neither party permitted to withdraw any funds. Additionally, Washington will assist Kyiv in attracting investment and technology from funds and companies in the U.S., the EU, and other countries. According to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, countries and individuals who have financed or equipped \u201cRussia\u2019s war machine\u201d will not be able to \u201cbenefit from Ukraine\u2019s reconstruction.\u201d
\nThe agreement, which calls for a \u201chistoric economic partnership,\u201d is designed to \u201cleverage the shared assets, talents, and capabilities of both nations to accelerate Ukraine\u2019s economic recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n

The most critical aspect of the new agreement is that Trump, contrary to claims and demands made during the first 100 days of his administration, makes no mention of recovering previous aid provided to Kyiv. This can be seen as a key concession from Trump to Zelenskyy, who had insisted that repayment of $350\u2013500 billion in aid over the past three years was a prerequisite for any agreement between the two capitals.
\nThe agreement also adopts a harsh tone toward Russia, labeling Moscow as the aggressor in the conflict\u2014a departure from Trump\u2019s earlier statements blaming Ukraine and Zelenskyy for the war.<\/p>\n

The new agreement\u2019s ultimate goal is to achieve \u201ca free, independent, resilient, and prosperous Ukraine.\u201d This marks a notable shift from Trump\u2019s remarks earlier this year, in which he claimed \u201cUkraine was responsible for starting the war\u201d and suggested \u201cUkraine might one day become part of Russia.\u201d
\nThe agreement also leaves the door open for Ukraine\u2019s potential future membership in the European Union, emphasizing that investments must align with Ukraine\u2019s obligations as an EU candidate country. It adds that if Ukraine joins the EU in the future, the agreement will be \u201crenegotiated in good faith.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, a key point is that the signed agreement differs significantly from earlier drafts, highlighting that the U.S. retreated from many prior provisions.
\nIn one early version, revenue from Ukraine\u2019s minerals and other natural resources was to compensate the U.S. for military aid. However, in the final document, Washington\u2019s military aid to Kyiv is classified as assistance, not a loan. Meanwhile, the funds the U.S. allocates to Ukraine post-signing will count as their contributions to the joint fund.<\/p>\n

Security Issues:<\/strong> Ukraine dropped its primary demand for U.S. security guarantees as part of the agreement. This demand had led to the controversial meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump in the Oval Office in February.<\/p>\n

Exclusive Access for the U.S.:<\/strong> While the agreement ensures preferential U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral wealth, it does not grant exclusive rights, unlike earlier drafts.<\/p>\n

Existing Resources:<\/strong> The agreement is limited to new projects, meaning the U.S. and Ukraine must invest in Ukrainian territory to generate profits. Active mines currently generating revenue for Ukraine are excluded.<\/p>\n

Prospects for Continued U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine<\/strong>
\nMany experts believe the agreement will politically benefit Ukraine by enabling continued cooperation with the U.S., predicting increased American military aid. Timofiy Mylovanov, Ukraine\u2019s former Economy Minister and current head of the Kyiv School of Economics, wrote on social media: \u201cThis is a major political and diplomatic victory for Ukraine. It gives Trump a domestic political win and a more positive stance toward Ukraine. Ukraine protected its interests in this deal. Despite unimaginable pressure, all harsh demands from the opposing side were dropped for Ukraine.\u201d
\nImmediately after the signing, media reports revealed the Trump administration had agreed, for the first time since his second inauguration, to sell $50 million worth of weapons to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

U.S. Security Guarantees to Ukraine<\/strong>
\nAnalysts stress that the document includes no U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine, despite Zelenskyy\u2019s push for them, particularly in exchange for access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral resources. Thus, the agreement appears largely political\u2014an effort to reset Ukraine-U.S. relations but lacking security assurances, a critical shortcoming for Ukraine. Ukraine has signed over 300 security agreements with international partners, far more impactful than the investment fund deal with the U.S.<\/p>\n

Currently, no one in Washington wants to discuss security guarantees. Consequently, there is no near-term prospect of new weapons, military aid, or even humanitarian assistance from the U.S. Therefore, the agreement cannot be seriously considered a security guarantee for Ukraine.
\nA subtle point in the agreement is Trump\u2019s framing of U.S. interests as a form of security assurance. When asked about U.S. security guarantees during the initial draft\u2019s release, Trump replied: \u201cWhen we gain ownership of mines in Ukraine, we will certainly use military forces to protect our assets there. These forces won\u2019t be a mission to defend Ukraine but to safeguard U.S. interests. If Russia makes a mistake in its attacks and targets U.S. interests or forces, it will face retaliation.\u201d
\nIn the updated agreement, the U.S. claims that the presence of American companies and interests in Ukraine constitutes the \u201cbest security guarantee\u201d Washington can offer Kyiv.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong>
\nExamining various aspects of the U.S.-Ukraine agreement, it can be concluded that the deal lays the groundwork for longer-term relations. However, it offers no concrete guarantees for U.S. gains under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

However, the agreement\u2019s primary significance is symbolic. Trump needed to feel that the U.S. had gained something from Kyiv, while Ukraine was required to demonstrate functional and improving ties with the White House. Ukraine\u2019s allies also required this agreement to shift focus from the complex debate over military aid and the actual peace process.<\/p>\n

The text includes two phrases particularly pleasing to Kyiv. First, it references \u201cthe widespread devastation caused by Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine\u201d\u2014a blunt, sharp statement from a White House often reluctant to criticize the Kremlin. Second, clarifying \u201chow Ukraine might purchase weapons from the U.S.\u201d is vital for Kyiv, given Russia\u2019s battlefield dominance.<\/p>\n

The document\u2019s symbolic nature stems partly from its long-term outlook and potential political shifts in the coming years. If the war ends tomorrow, neither Kyiv nor Washington will have the same governments in three years. Thus, while the agreement is broad, ambitious, and transformative, its immediate impact on the frontlines is negligible. It is largely symbolic\u2014akin to a temporary bandage\u2014a contradictory and complex contract offering Trump ample media appeal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Strategic Council Online \u2013 Opinion: The United States and Ukraine mineral agreement was signed in Washington after extensive discussions last month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":344479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13268,17,12726],"tags":[42444,13354,12872,43024,12731,12870,33479],"class_list":["post-344485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-note","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-mehdi-seif-tabrizi","tag-russia-en-2","tag--en","tag-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement","tag-zelensky"],"yoast_head":"\nAn Analytical Look at the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement - Strategic Council on Foreign Relations<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/344485\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/344485\\\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/344485\\\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\u062c\u0648\u0627\u062f \u0645\u062f\u062f\u06cc\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.scfr.ir\\\/fa\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/35df72a1a82f18cf1cb487d0c5afdb26\"},\"headline\":\"An Analytical Look at the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-28T16:03:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/344485\\\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1421,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.scfr.ir\\\/fa\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/344485\\\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/2683687_997.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Mehdi Seif Tabrizi\",\"Russia\",\"Trump\",\"U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement\",\"Ukraine\",\"USA\",\"Zelensky\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Note\",\"Politics\",\"Top News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/344485\\\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/344485\\\/an-analytical-look-at-the-u-s-ukraine-mineral-agreement\\\/\",\"name\":\"An Analytical Look at the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement - 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