{"id":345348,"date":"2025-08-17T12:10:15","date_gmt":"2025-08-17T08:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/345348\/consequences-of-the-lebanon-minus-resistance-scenario\/"},"modified":"2025-08-17T12:10:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-17T08:40:15","slug":"consequences-of-the-lebanon-minus-resistance-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/345348\/consequences-of-the-lebanon-minus-resistance-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"Consequences of the “Lebanon Minus Resistance” Scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"

From the Martyrdom of Seyed Hassan Nasrallah to the Redefinition of the Resistance Role<\/strong>
\nAsghar Zarei, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “After the martyrdom of the late Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Seyed Hassan Nasrallah, and the appointment of the martyr Na\u2019im Qassimi as the new Secretary-General, Hezbollah entered a new and redefined phase of its role in regional security equations. This redefinition was not merely about a leadership change, but carried a multi-layered message within it; first to the Zionist regime and second to Lebanon’s political structure. The main axis of this message was the continuity of the Resistance strategy, but in a more flexible, smarter format suited to the region’s new coordinates.”
\nThe regional affairs analyst points out that “the Zionist regime, after the recent ceasefire, has repeatedly violated it and targeted dozens of the Hezbollah forces in recent weeks.” According to this expert, “Tel Aviv’s aggressive behavior is a clear sign that disarming the Resistance will not only not bring security for Lebanon, but will place the country under constant threat and undefended.” Referring to recent statements by Sheikh Naima Qassem, the current Secretary-General of Hezbollah, he emphasizes that “the Resistance’s red line is preserving its weapons. Weapons that are not a threat to the Lebanese government but a guarantee for its survival against the endless aggression of the Zionist regime.”<\/p>\n

Pressure Scenarios and Designing “Lebanon Without Resistance”<\/strong>
\nZarei, referring to recent trends in the Lebanese parliament, speaks of a designed scenario in Western capitals; a scenario whose goal is not only to disarm Hezbollah but to contain the entire Resistance currents in the region. He notes that “the recent trips by the US special envoy for Middle East affairs and multilateral consultations with Lebanese officials, especially simultaneous with the cabinet session, have all been towards realizing this plan.”
\nAccording to the Arab world affairs analyst, “Hochstein, the US representative, brought a package of pressures with him; not only in the form of the disarmament plan but also in the form of threats to impose new sanctions and cut off economic aid in case of the Lebanese government’s unquestioning non-compliance with the US agenda.” He adds that “Saudi Arabia has also played a prominent role in this equation and has even exerted pressures beyond Washington’s on Beirut to get the disarmament resolution passed in the Lebanese parliament.” The international affairs expert “considers this process an example of direct foreign interference in Lebanon’s national sovereignty; a process that, if realized, will push Lebanon towards a quasi-colonial structure.”<\/p>\n

Popular Resistance, the Backbone of Hezbollah’s Legitimacy<\/strong>
\nZarei reports on the widespread wave of gatherings by the Hezbollah supporters in various regions of the country who have staged protests against the disarmament plan. According to the West Asian affairs analyst, “Contrary to the suggestions of the Western-oriented media, the Shiite community and even parts of Lebanon’s Sunni and Christian communities have also warned about the dangerous consequences of this plan.”
\nHe emphasizes that Hezbollah is not just a military group; over the past decades, it has acted as an executive arm for ensuring Lebanon’s national security and preserving the country’s independence against the Israeli regime. From his perspective, any decision to weaken or remove this arm will deprive Lebanon of its defensive backbone.” This analyst adds, “Not only in the south, but also on Lebanon’s eastern borders, there are serious threats from takfiri groups, and the experience of Syria is proof that the absence of a deterrent force can mean the collapse of national security.”<\/p>\n

Worrying Outlook<\/strong>
\nAsghar Zarei, looking at the upcoming trends, warns about Lebanon’s political and security future. He believes that “if the plan to disarm Hezbollah becomes operational, the Lebanese government will effectively turn into a vulnerable institution.” The Arab world affairs analyst “sees this scenario as a repetition of the experience of defenseless areas in the face of ISIS advances in Iraq and Syria, which, in the absence of an effective Resistance force, were exposed to occupation.”
\nThe Arab world affairs expert emphasizes that “one of the Zionist regime’s primary motives for insisting on this plan is to create a security vacuum in Lebanon so that, if needed, the possibility of attacking it again is provided.” Citing the experience of the 33-day war and the Zionist regime’s recent aggressions against Lebanon, he speaks of Hezbollah’s decisive role in defeating this regime and states clearly: “Today, if Hezbollah is disarmed, a new round of aggression and occupation will begin immediately.”
\nHe also points to the possibility of civil war in Lebanon, a scenario meticulously designed by some regional and international currents that could become reality if the Resistance is removed from the power equations.
\nIn conclusion, Zarei deduces that “instead of moving towards disarming the Resistance, Lebanon’s military-political structure should move in a direction that, by strengthening the position of the Resistance, guarantees the path of deterrence and preservation of national sovereignty.” From his perspective, “the Resistance is not only a security tool but an inseparable component of Lebanon’s independence and political stability in a turbulent region.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Strategic Council Online \u2013 Interview: An expert on Arab world affairs said: One of the Zionist regime’s primary motives for insisting on disarming Hezbollah is to create a security vacuum in Lebanon so that, if needed, the possibility of attacking it again is provided. Today, Lebanon is witnessing one of its most sensitive political junctures in recent years; the Lebanese cabinet, in its recent session chaired by Najib Mikati, the country’s Prime Minister, approved the content of the US proposal for disarming Hezbollah and monopolizing weapons in the hands of the army, despite opposition from some ministers. The US proposal, which has faced firm opposition from the Hezbollah, was brought to Beirut by Thomas Barrack, the US Special Envoy, and with a paternalistic approach, considers disarming the Hezbollah a precondition for starting any dialogue and border demarcation, explicitly stating that this plan must either be entirely accepted or Lebanon must accept the consequences of its rejection.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":345260,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13289,17,12726],"tags":[21651,16435,14777,13392,43369,12870,13078],"class_list":["post-345348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-asghar-zarei","tag-disarmament-en","tag-lebanon-en","tag-lebanons-hezbollah","tag-thomas-barrack","tag--en","tag---en"],"yoast_head":"\nConsequences of the "Lebanon Minus Resistance" Scenario - 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