{"id":345356,"date":"2025-08-17T14:48:58","date_gmt":"2025-08-17T11:18:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/345356\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\/"},"modified":"2025-08-17T14:48:58","modified_gmt":"2025-08-17T11:18:58","slug":"alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/345356\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\/","title":{"rendered":"Alaska: Deal-Making Stage or Geopolitical Minefield?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Great Game in Alaska: Geography of an Unconventional Summit
\n<\/strong>Farshid Bagherian, in an interview with the Foreign Relations Strategic Council website, noted: “Choosing Alaska for the Trump-Putin summit is not merely geographical. Symbolically, it marks the convergence of U.S. and Russian borders and historically recalls a colossal 19th-century deal: Russia\u2019s sale of Alaska to the United States.” According to the analyst, “Such symbolism may subconsciously steer minds toward a \u2018territorial deal\u2019\u2014something Moscow has effectively placed on the table with its recent proposal to Trump.”
\nBagherian emphasized that “Putin is a master of wielding symbols in foreign policy. By selecting the stage and timing, he aims to convey political messages before formal negotiations.” He added, “Moscow knows Trump craves projecting an image of historic diplomatic achievements globally and domestically. Combining these motivations could pave the way for a grand deal\u2014though not necessarily a sustainable end to the war.” The analyst further noted that “Alaska\u2019s selection, coupled with Trump\u2019s waiver of secondary sanctions deadlines against Russia, signals to European capitals that the White House may accommodate Moscow\u2019s demands.”<\/p>\n

Agreement and Collusion Scenarios: From Minimalism to Frontline Solidification
\n<\/strong>Bagherian outlined four primary scenarios for ending the Ukraine war via the Alaska talks:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Minimal Agreement<\/strong>: A temporary ceasefire, partial sanctions relief, and formal negotiations\u2014without<\/em> altering borders. While preferable for Europe\/Ukraine in preserving territorial integrity, Putin would likely reject it as a non-“victory” absent territorial gains.<\/li>\n
  2. Territorial Exchange<\/strong>: Ukraine cedes eastern territories; Russia withdraws from southern regions like Zaporizhzhia or Kherson. This lets Trump frame the deal as a “win-win,” but rewards Moscow and risks normalizing such models.<\/li>\n
  3. Solidifying Current Frontlines<\/strong>: De facto acceptance of Russian control over occupied areas without formal border agreements. This creates gray zones akin to frozen conflicts, perpetuating re-escalation risks.<\/li>\n
  4. Tacit Washington-Moscow Collusion<\/strong>: Prioritizing U.S.-Russia competition with China while sidelining Ukraine. Bagherian deems this geopolitically perilous, signaling that smaller nations\u2019 interests are expendable in great-power rivalries. Scenarios 2 and 3 are considered most likely, aligning with Trump\u2019s “swift achievement” and Putin\u2019s “preserving gains” logics.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Zelenskyy\u2019s Dilemma: Exclusion from the Negotiating Table
    \n<\/strong>Bagherian stressed that “excluding or marginalizing Ukraine in Alaska is not merely tactical but strategically consequential.” He warned that violating the principle of national self-determination\u2014a pillar of modern international law\u2014undermines the legitimacy of post-WWII norms.
    \n“Even if Zelenskyy is belatedly invited,” Bagherian explained, “his symbolic presence\u2014whether sharing a room with Putin\u2014matters profoundly. A delayed or restricted invitation would signal that key decisions were made without Ukraine.” The analyst believes “Putin anticipates this exact scenario: demonstrating Moscow can negotiate with the world\u2019s top power while the war\u2019s primary party is absent. Domestically, this would be touted as a diplomatic victory; internationally, as fracturing the Western front.”<\/p>\n

    Geopolitical Consequences: Europe on Alert<\/strong><\/p>\n

    According to Bagherian, “Any agreement formed without respecting the red lines of Ukraine and Europe will have long-term consequences for the balance of power: First, the use of force to change borders would be redefined as a justifiable tool in international politics. Second, the Transatlantic alliance would face internal pressures and mutual distrust. Third, other actors may also take bolder, similar actions in their surrounding environments.”<\/p>\n

    The senior international affairs analyst emphasizes that “For this reason, Europe has intensified coordinated diplomatic efforts in recent weeks. The calls by the leaders of France, Germany, Britain, and other EU members with Washington are to ensure that any future agreement includes security guarantees and respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” Bagherian concludes by warning that “If the Alaska summit results in an agreement that appears as a ‘victory’ in the short term, but disrupts the balance of power in the long term, this will not only be a costly legacy for America and its allies, but will also plunge the international order into a period of structural instability.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Strategic Council Online \u2013 Interview: A senior international affairs analyst stated: “The final week of summer 2025 marks a sensitive test for international relations and the future of the Ukraine war. The meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska was merely seven months after Trump\u2019s return to the White House, as the Ukraine war rages on relentlessly.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine\u2019s president, has preemptively rejected Trump\u2019s proposed peace plan\u2014likely based on territorial concessions to Russia\u2014warning that any agreement without Kyiv\u2019s presence and consent would be a “dead solution.” Observers view the clash of interests among Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Europe as the intersection of four conflicting logics: Washington\u2019s deal-driven logic, Moscow\u2019s consolidationist logic, and Kyiv\u2019s and Europe\u2019s survivalist logic. While scenarios range from a minimal agreement to tacit Putin-Trump collusion solidifying current frontlines, each carries profound implications for European security and global power balances. Zelenskyy\u2019s absence from Alaska could heighten risks of a deal that not only weakens Ukraine\u2019s position but also undermines the legitimacy of fundamental international law.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":345240,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13289,17,12726],"tags":[6978,43380,16275,13354,12872,35560,12870],"class_list":["post-345356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-6978","tag-alaska-summit","tag-putin","tag-russia-en-2","tag--en","tag---en"],"yoast_head":"\nAlaska: Deal-Making Stage or Geopolitical Minefield? - Strategic Council on Foreign Relations<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/345356\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/345356\\\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/345356\\\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\u062c\u0648\u0627\u062f \u0645\u062f\u062f\u06cc\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.scfr.ir\\\/fa\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/35df72a1a82f18cf1cb487d0c5afdb26\"},\"headline\":\"Alaska: Deal-Making Stage or Geopolitical Minefield?\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-17T11:18:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/345356\\\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":652,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.scfr.ir\\\/fa\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/345356\\\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/08\\\/6899ae814c59b742fd26b844.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"\u00ab\u0641\u0631\u0634\u06cc\u062f \u0628\u0627\u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u00bb\",\"Alaska Summit\",\"Putin\",\"Russia\",\"Trump\",\"Ukraine war\",\"USA\"],\"articleSection\":[\"interview\",\"Politics\",\"Top News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/345356\\\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scfr.ir\\\/en\\\/politics\\\/345356\\\/alaska-deal-making-stage-or-geopolitical-minefield\\\/\",\"name\":\"Alaska: Deal-Making Stage or Geopolitical Minefield? 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