Ehsan Taqavi, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: \u201cThe South Caucasus trilateral agreement cannot be overlooked with simplistic optimism or dismissed as an unrealistic threat.\u201d In his view, \u201cThis agreement, which some consider merely a transit project, has geopolitical objectives at its core that could jeopardize Iran\u2019s national interests.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Caucasus region expert emphasizes that \u201cthe perspective on these developments must be realistic, not pessimistic or optimistic. In the past, some Iranian experts and officials, relying on Russia\u2019s role, believed the Zangezur corridor would never materialize. However, the current reality shows that this project has been reintroduced in a new form with U.S. mediation, which demands greater vigilance.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Caucasus affairs expert sees the new plan not just as a transit route but as a tool for shifting the balance of power in the region. In this regard, Takagi clarifies: \u201cThis corridor, which is supposed to connect the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and then Turkey through Armenian territory, could impact the 43-kilometer border between Iran and Armenia and weaken Iran\u2019s transit role.\u201d The Eurasian affairs analyst, referring to concerns about U.S. and even NATO presence near Iran\u2019s borders, believes that \u201calthough direct adjacency is not necessary to create a threat, geographical proximity can intensify strategic effects.\u201d<\/p>\n
He notes that global developments have shown that countries do not need shared borders to advance their objectives against others. Still, the U.S. presence in Armenia\u2019s Syunik province and the potential establishment of military or security bases under the pretext of securing this corridor could complicate the region\u2019s geostrategic equations.\u201d According to this analyst, \u201cThis agreement is part of the strategy to contain Iran and Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ehsan Taqavi views the trilateral agreement as part of a \u201cgreat game\u201d of geopolitics that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union and has now reached its peak with the U.S. playing a role. He believes that \u201cthis game started years ago with the competition of powers such as Russia, China, Turkey, and the European Union in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia, with high sensitivity, tried to maintain its control over post-Soviet countries, China expanded its economic ties, Turkey sought to create a bloc of Turkic-speaking countries, and Europe aimed to develop its economic and political influence. Meanwhile, the U.S., leveraging Russia\u2019s current weakness, especially after the conflict in Ukraine, has seized the opportunity to dominate this region.\u201d<\/p>\n
The senior Russia affairs analyst emphasizes that \u201cnaming the corridor the \u2018Trump Route\u2019 and signing the agreement at the White House is more a display of U.S. power against Iran, Russia, and China than a practical step toward peace. This display of power, particularly during Donald Trump\u2019s second presidential term, has been reinforced with actions such as showcasing advanced fighter jets or making provocative statements about U.S. military capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Taqavi\u2019s view, \u201cIran has missed opportunities in the past, such as a strategic alliance with Armenia, and the vacuum created by Russia\u2019s weakness in the region has opened the door for U.S. influence.\u201d The senior Caucasus affairs analyst believes that \u201cIran can leverage existing opportunities with dynamic foreign policy and active diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Taqavi suggests that \u201cTehran should transform threats into opportunities to strengthen its transit and economic position.\u201d According to him, \u201cThe timing of this agreement, which occurred after the 12-day war between the Israeli regime and Iran, indicates long-term U.S. planning to exploit the situation to its advantage. However, Iran, relying on its geopolitical advantages, such as its strategic location on transit routes, can still play a key role in Caucasus equations with smart diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Strategic Council Online \u2013 Interview: A senior Eurasian affairs analyst stated that the trilateral agreement between Armenia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the United States on August 8, 2025, known as the \u201cTrump Route,\u201d is a turning point in the geopolitical equations of the South Caucasus. This agreement, ostensibly signed for peace and the establishment of a transit corridor between Baku and Nakhchivan, carries serious concerns. From the perspective of analysts, this plan is not merely an economic project but part of the U.S. strategy to enhance its influence in the region and contain regional powers such as Iran and Russia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":345431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13289,17,12726],"tags":[16401,13227,43085,12741,24207,13354,43487,12870],"class_list":["post-345569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-armenia","tag-china-en-2","tag-ehsan-taghvaei","tag--en","tag-republic-of-azerbaijan","tag-russia-en-2","tag-south-caucasus-trilateral-agreement"],"yoast_head":"\n