{"id":345906,"date":"2025-09-17T15:48:50","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T12:18:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/345906\/prospect-of-a-multipolar-order-and-the-future-of-beijing-washington-confrontation\/"},"modified":"2025-09-17T15:48:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T12:18:50","slug":"prospect-of-a-multipolar-order-and-the-future-of-beijing-washington-confrontation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/345906\/prospect-of-a-multipolar-order-and-the-future-of-beijing-washington-confrontation\/","title":{"rendered":"Prospect of a Multipolar Order and the Future of Beijing-Washington Confrontation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>From Thucydides Trap to the Churchill Trap: The Paths Ahead for China and the U.S.<br \/>\n<\/strong>Nouzad Shafiei, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: \u201cHistory has always witnessed the rise and fall of powers; a process that is repeating itself today in the form of the China-U.S. competition.\u201d According to this university professor, \u201cThe United States is concerned about China\u2019s challenge and will strive to prevent Beijing from becoming the world\u2019s preeminent power.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Referring to the concept of the \u201cThucydides Trap,\u201d this analyst notes that \u201cthis theory, derived from the experience of ancient Greek wars, explains how a dominant power, fearing the rise of an emerging rival, is driven toward military conflict.\u201d He therefore warns that \u201cit is possible that Washington may consider military actions to contain China; a scenario that, while not certain, cannot be ignored.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This expert on Southeast Asian affairs believes that \u201cthe current equations are not limited to the military domain and involve a range of diplomatic, economic, and security tools.\u201d Proposing two main scenarios, he describes the paths ahead for the two powers as follows: \u201cFirst, the scenario of direct conflict, or the Thucydides Trap, in which uncontrollable competition leads to hot war; second, the \u2018Churchill Trap\u2019 scenario, which has its roots in the post-World War II policy of containing communism and could lead to the formation of a new cold war between Washington and Beijing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to this university professor, \u201cIf the second scenario materializes, U.S.-China hostility will primarily be pursued in the realms of propaganda, economic pressures, and political containment, while both sides avoid direct military conflict.\u201d He emphasizes that \u201cthe level of tension and how it is managed depends on the skill of the two countries\u2019 leadership in management; because each of these paths will have profound consequences for the international order.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>China on the Verge of a Historic Turning Point: Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and Global Ambition<br \/>\n<\/strong>This expert on South Asian affairs believes that \u201cgiven its massive population, economic capability, and civilizational background, China cannot avoid becoming a global power.\u201d In the view of this analyst on South Asian affairs, \u201cThis process is not merely the desire of China\u2019s leaders; rather, the country\u2019s internal capacities drive it toward playing a larger role in the international system.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The expert on Southeast Asian affairs notes that \u201cthe shift in Beijing\u2019s approach is not merely propagandistic but reflects a change in the balance of power within the global system.\u201d This analyst believes that \u201cChina is now an actor that plays a role not only in the military sphere but also in the economy, technology, and even cyberspace.\u201d From Shafiei\u2019s perspective, \u201cthe recent military parade is a sign of this very process, where China, by displaying its strategic capabilities, seeks to send a clear message to competitors that the era of unipolarity is ending and a multipolar order is taking shape.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The expert on East Asian affairs continues: \u201cAt the trans-regional level, the closeness of China, Russia, and North Korea in opposition to the West is reminiscent of the Cold War era, but with more complex equations, because now the competition is not only military but also technological, economic, and even cyber. It seems that the Beijing parade is the beginning of an era in which the global balance of power will no longer remain as it was in the past.\u201d This university professor concludes by emphasizing that \u201cthe future of the global order depends greatly on the nature of the interaction between China and the United States. If crisis management is handled wisely, the competition between the two powers will likely continue at a controlled level; otherwise, the world may enter a period of structural tensions whose consequences will spread beyond Asia to the entire international system.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Strategic Council Online \u2013 Interview: A senior analyst on South Asian affairs stated that China&#8217;s grand military parade on September 3, 2025, was not merely a display of power; instead, it will mark the beginning of a new chapter in global geopolitical equations. The simultaneous presence of the leaders of China, Russia, and North Korea before the cameras, especially against the backdrop of Beijing&#8217;s &#8220;nuclear strategic triangle&#8221; unveiling, sent a clear message to Washington and its allies that the past unipolar order is collapsing and the world is moving toward multipolarity. China&#8217;s new land-based, sea-based, and air-launched missile systems have elevated its nuclear deterrent capability to an unprecedented level, and the sharp reactions from the United States\u2014from Donald Trump&#8217;s sarcastic remarks to the Pentagon&#8217;s alert\u2014indicate that Washington views these developments as a strategic threat. Many analysts believe that this event, beyond its military dimension, symbolizes the formation of new alliances among Eastern powers against the West. Simultaneously, the arms race and diplomatic pressures in the Asia-Pacific region have accelerated, and security equations in Taiwan and beyond have entered a new phase. It seems that the Beijing parade was not just a military ceremony but the beginning of an era in which the redefinition of power in the twenty-first century will accelerate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":345793,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13289,17,12726],"tags":[13227,29391,35092,16434,13263,13354,12870],"class_list":["post-345906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-china-en-2","tag-china-us-competition","tag-multi-polar-system","tag-north-korea-en-2","tag-nozar-shafiei-en","tag-russia-en-2","tag--en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prospect of a Multipolar Order and the Future of Beijing-Washington Confrontation - 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