Barsam Mohammadi \u2013 Expert on regional affairs<\/p>\n
After nearly two decades of hiatus, Palestinians are once again preparing to hold parliamentary elections. The Palestinian Central Elections Commission has announced that approximately 2.97 million citizens are eligible to vote, and the elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.<\/p>\n
Of this number, 1.24 million reside in the Gaza Strip, 1.59 million in the West Bank, and about 140,000 in the occupied city of Jerusalem. Notably, 1.57 million of those eligible, i.e., 53 percent, are under 38 years of age and have never participated in general elections. This statistic alone indicates that the upcoming elections, regardless of the outcome, will be an unprecedented event in the political life of Palestine.<\/p>\n
Hamas and the Strategy of a Broad Coalition<\/strong><\/p>\n Hamas, which won the last parliamentary elections in 2006 by securing 74 seats out of a total of 132, has adopted a different approach this time. The high delegation of this movement, headed by Hussam Badran, a member of the political bureau and head of the national relations office, has made trips to Cairo and has consulted with representatives of the Islamic Jihad movement, the Democratic Reform current within Fatah, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and several other groups regarding the elections for the Legislative Council and the Palestinian National Council and ways to strengthen national unity.<\/p>\n Hamas prefers to enter the competition within the framework of the broadest possible national coalition and not to participate merely as a single party and individually. According to reports, a preliminary agreement has been formed among Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Reform current led by Mohammed Dahlan, the Yasser Nasser al-Qudwa current, and the al-Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades to form an “expanded national list.” The realization of this convergence could change the traditional arrangement of Palestinian political forces and affect the power equations.<\/p>\n Fatah and the Challenge of Internal Division<\/strong><\/p>\n In contrast, the Fatah movement faces considerable internal challenges. Munther al-Hayek, Fatah’s spokesman, has emphasized that this movement opposes appearing on a joint list with Hamas, although it leaves the door open for an alliance with other groups. At the same time, reports indicate that Fatah may enter the competition with more than four electoral lists; an issue that could reduce this movement’s competitive capability.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the name of Marwan Barghouti, Fatah’s imprisoned leader, is mentioned as one of the important factors in the political equations. According to a poll by the “PSR” Center in August 2026, in a hypothetical competition, Barghouti tops the list with 54 percent, while Khalil al-Hayya, head of Hamas’s political bureau, receives 26 percent and Mahmoud Abbas 14 percent. Also, 39 percent of respondents considered Barghouti the most worthy successor to Abbas; in contrast, this figure was 16 percent for al-Hayya and 15 percent for Dahlan. These figures indicate a shift in the political tendencies of Palestinian society and the challenges facing traditional leadership.<\/p>\n Obstacles to Holding Elections and the Postponement Scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n Despite administrative preparations and the commencement of candidate registration from September 26, holding the elections faces serious obstacles. The Israeli regime has opposed holding elections in East Jerusalem, and Hamas’s participation is also one of its main concerns. A senior official of this regime has said that “nothing positive will come out of these elections,” and restrictions will likely be imposed regarding the areas of holding and the identity of participating lists.<\/p>\n In Gaza as well, there are extensive logistical challenges. The destruction of infrastructure, the displacement of the population, and the Israeli regime’s prevention of the entry of needed electoral items have made holding the elections face practical difficulties.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the scenario of postponing the elections has been raised once again. Mahmoud Abbas, who has a record of canceling elections in 2019 and 2021, may once again, this time citing the conditions of Jerusalem or pressures from the Israeli regime, prevent the holding of elections in the final days. Sources close to Fatah have also mentioned the postponement of elections as one of the probable scenarios.<\/p>\n Strategic Implications for the Future of Palestinian Governance<\/strong><\/p>\n At the strategic level, the Palestinian parliamentary elections can have three important consequences. First, the relative revival of the legitimacy of political institutions through returning the right of choice to the people, especially the young generation that has no experience of general elections; second, the rearrangement of political forces and the strengthening of the tendency toward national coalitions that can provide the ground for reducing divisions and even strengthening the process of rebuilding the Palestine Liberation Organization; third, influencing regional and international equations regarding the future of Palestine; because the election result and the level of participation can affect the political weight of Palestinian actors in foreign interactions.<\/p>\n The Palestinian parliamentary elections, beyond being an electoral competition, will be a test for measuring the political weight of Hamas, Fatah, and other currents, as well as the capacity of the Palestinian political structure to reproduce institutional legitimacy. Hamas, by adopting a broad coalition strategy, is attempting to consolidate its position in the future political structure and to benefit from the capacity of alliance with various currents to increase parliamentary presence.<\/p>\n On the other side, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority face internal divisions and challenges related to their political position, and concern about the strengthening of rivals is one of the factors that has raised the postponement scenario. The Israeli regime has also added to the existing complexities by opposing the holding of elections in East Jerusalem and opposing Hamas’s participation.<\/p>\n If held, the elections could be a turning point in the rearrangement of the Palestinian political structure and the strengthening of the role of elected institutions; however, the realization of this capacity will depend on overcoming a set of internal and external obstacles that could affect the timing of the elections, the level of participation, and the future composition of Palestinian governance institutions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" SCFR Online – Opinion: The upcoming Palestinian elections, after nearly two decades of hiatus, could affect the arrangement of political forces, the legitimacy of institutions, and the future path of Palestinian governance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":422453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13268,17,12726],"tags":[27790,15783,49211,49213,13393,49215,49210,27804,49212,49214],"class_list":["post-422479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-note","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-barsaam-mohammadi","tag-fatah","tag-future-of-palestinian-governance","tag-gaza-elections","tag-hamas-en","tag-marwan-barghouti","tag-palestine-elections-2026","tag-palestinian-elections","tag-palestinian-political-legitimacy","tag-west-bank-elections"],"yoast_head":"\n