{"id":422838,"date":"2026-10-27T07:58:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T04:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/422838\/strategic-implications-of-the-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-from-the-kurdistan-region-to-baghdad\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T07:58:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T04:28:40","slug":"strategic-implications-of-the-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-from-the-kurdistan-region-to-baghdad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/422838\/strategic-implications-of-the-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-from-the-kurdistan-region-to-baghdad\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic Implications of the US Withdrawal from Iraq; from the Kurdistan Region to Baghdad"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sajjad Samani \u2013 Expert on West Asian affairs<\/p>\n

The end of the coalition mission and the continuation of US influence<\/strong><\/p>\n

The withdrawal of the forces of the so-called international anti-ISIS coalition from Iraq should not be considered to mean the complete severance of Washington’s security relations with Baghdad; rather, it should be assessed merely as the end of this coalition’s military mission. The International Crisis Group, in its analysis of the future of the US military presence in Iraq, considers the main question to be the capability of Iraqi forces to independently manage operational, intelligence, and cross-border coordination gaps; especially in circumstances where ISIS remnants, Syria’s uncertain situation, and competition among armed groups remain challenging.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the “Responsible Statecraft” website, in an article titled “Despite the War, the US Army Leaves Iraq,” argues that the unlimited presence of several hundred American forces is not a substitute for internal institution-building. The end of the mission can provide the political space necessary to strengthen the Iraqi government’s accountability, although training, intelligence sharing, consultation, and remote cooperation remain possible.<\/p>\n

Therefore, military withdrawal does not necessarily mean the end of American influence; rather, it can change its form from direct deployment to security, diplomatic, and economic instruments.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the American withdrawal can reduce direct military pressure on resistance groups in Iraq and increase the bargaining power of these forces. If the Iraqi government fails in managing borders, security control, and curbing sectarian violence, the security vacuum can give ISIS remnants an opportunity to resurge. Iraq’s chronic instability, given the region’s border and economic linkages, will not be in the interest of the national security of other regional countries.<\/p>\n

Some experts in this regard recall that Washington can maintain its influence in Iraq through economic aid, banking and energy relations, intelligence cooperation, arms sales, and connection with political elites; therefore, post-withdrawal competition will depend, more than on the number of soldiers, on the ability of foreign actors to establish sustainable relations with Iraqi institutions.<\/p>\n

Baghdad; between public legitimacy and governance constraints<\/strong><\/p>\n

The poll by the independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies, which the Atlantic Council published regarding the first hundred days of Ali al-Zaidi’s government, presents a dual picture of Iraq’s internal situation. According to the announced results, 77 percent of respondents were satisfied with al-Zaidi’s selection as prime minister, and 75 percent believed he had fulfilled his responsibilities. However, 60 percent considered corruption in Iraq to be widespread; a figure that reached 69 percent among Shiite respondents. Unemployment, especially among the youth, also remains a major concern.<\/p>\n

These data indicate that the government’s initial legitimacy will depend on its performance in governance, employment, and combating corruption. The Al-Bayan Center’s analysis regarding the role of state banks and the limited capacity of private banks to finance the budget also highlights a structural problem: the government’s excessive reliance on the state banking network to fund public expenditures can limit the credit needed by the private sector and productive investment.<\/p>\n

Therefore, Iraq’s stability does not depend solely on military capability; the quality of financial management, job creation, and combating corruption also have a direct effect on the government’s capacity to contain the crisis.<\/p>\n

The situation of the Kurdistan Region after the reduction of US support<\/strong><\/p>\n

The American withdrawal is of particular importance for the Kurdistan Region, because cooperation with Washington over the past years has provided part of the training, support, and coordination of Peshmerga forces. The Eurasia Review think tank warns that the Region should not take the continuation of the current form of foreign support for granted. In these circumstances, internal political cohesion, relations with Baghdad, and the organization of security forces gain greater importance.<\/p>\n

According to the Responsible Statecraft Institute’s analysis of Peshmerga unity, the Regional Government announced on September 21 the completion of a stage of integrating military forces. However, the command structure remains to some extent linked to the partisan dependencies of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Transferring the salaries of forces to the centralized account of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs was an important step, but administrative unity does not necessarily lead to operational integration. The continuation of partisan divisions can, in a crisis, disrupt the chain of command and increase the Region’s dependence on external guarantees.<\/p>\n

The Afghanistan lesson and post-withdrawal priorities<\/strong><\/p>\n

Comparing Iraq with Afghanistan is useful when it focuses not on equating the two countries but on the danger of institutional erosion and the gap between security assessments and political reality. Iraq possesses a different army, governing institutions, and revenue sources, but competition among armed groups, corruption, and the difficulty of converting military capability into political control remain dangerous. The presence of American forces alone was not a guarantee for solving these problems.<\/p>\n

For the Axis of Resistance, the realistic approach is to use the reduction of the US military presence to expand regional cooperation, but it must be borne in mind that the instability of state institutions or the intensification of armed competition will be dangerous.<\/p>\n

The strategic consequence of the withdrawal of coalition forces will depend on Baghdad’s ability to consolidate legal authority over weapons, the Kurdistan Region’s ability to reduce internal differences, and the capacity of foreign partners to strengthen Iraq’s national institutions. If these conditions are met, the end of the coalition’s military mission can help strengthen Iraq’s sovereignty; otherwise, the form of the American presence may change without its strategic influence coming to an end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SCFR Online – Opinion: The US military withdrawal from Iraq does not mean the end of the security relationship between Baghdad and Washington, but rather constitutes a test of the Iraqi government’s ability to manage internal threats and redefine foreign dependencies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":422756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13268,17,13427,12726],"tags":[49713,49711,49714,49550,49712,25219,49710,49033,49549,18611],"class_list":["post-422838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-note","category-politics","category-strategic-perspective","category-10-en-2","tag-baghdad-government","tag-fighting-isis","tag-iraq-us-relations","tag-iraqs-national-sovereignty","tag-iraqs-security-future","tag-kurdistan-territory","tag-peshmerga-forces","tag-sajjad-samani","tag-us-influence-in-iraq","tag-us-withdrawal-from-iraq"],"yoast_head":"\nStrategic Implications of the US Withdrawal from Iraq; 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