Sareh Bayati \u2013 Economic affairs expert<\/p>\n
The post-World War II economic order has come under pressure from great power competition, sanctions, tariffs, and state industrial interventions. Trade, investment, and access to resources are no longer merely economic issues, but have become instruments for exerting pressure and increasing bargaining power. However, the erosion of the Bretton Woods structure should not be equated with its sudden collapse. What is observed most of all is the dispersion of decision-making centers and countries’ efforts to reduce financial and trade dependencies.<\/p>\n
In this process, BRICS is considered an important framework for political coordination and pursuing reforms, but it is not yet an integrated actor with a common financial policy. The expansion of relations with ASEAN and other emerging economies also shows that countries are seeking to increase cooperation options; although differences in interests, economic structures, and security relations limit joint action. As a result, the importance of BRICS in the current circumstances stems more from creating alternative options and increasing bargaining power than from completely replacing the dollar or existing financial institutions.<\/p>\n
The outlook for global growth<\/strong><\/p>\n The outlook for the global economy in 2027 still depends on a set of factors. Continued investment in artificial intelligence can support economic growth, and the decline in energy prices from the peak of the crisis can also limit inflationary pressures. However, prolonged disruption in energy routes can increase transportation and production costs, re-intensify inflation, and place central banks between containing prices and supporting growth; therefore, the relative resilience of the global economy does not mean the absence of risk, and energy shocks, tariffs, and policy uncertainty can affect countries unequally.<\/p>\n The experience of the energy market also shows that geopolitical competition does not necessarily eliminate economic dependencies. Even during periods of tension and trade restrictions, market needs, refining capacity, and production costs can create unexpected trade routes; as the sale of Russian fuel to America has also been cited as an example of this contradiction. Therefore, a policy of energy independence or economic decoupling must be measured against the reality of supply and demand and infrastructural constraints.<\/p>\n Minerals and the redefinition of West Asia’s position<\/strong><\/p>\n West Asia’s geoeconomic power is no longer determined only by oil and gas. The energy transition, the development of data centers, batteries, power grids, and defense industries have increased demand for rare minerals and their processing capacity. As a result, countries possessing energy and mineral resources can strengthen their strategic position by linking the supply of raw materials, industrial investment, and transit routes.<\/p>\n This development has two consequences. First, oil revenue still matters, but by itself does not guarantee future competitive advantage; processing, chemical production, and participation in technology chains are also of increasing importance. Second, foreign investment in energy and minerals, under conditions of US-China competition, can become a lever for political bargaining; although dependence on a single market or supplier also carries its own risks. The sustainable strategy is for natural resources to be transformed into infrastructure and industrial capacity, not for the economy to remain in the cycle of raw material exports.<\/p>\n US economic policy has also moved away from the free-market model with limited government intervention. The increased role of the state in investment, support for industries, imposition of tariffs, and direction of strategic sectors shows that global competition is shaped more than ever by control of supply chains and attraction of capital. In these circumstances, governments do not only regulate market rules, but also intervene to expand domestic production and reduce dependence on their rivals.<\/p>\n BRICS faces a dual challenge; its members want more space for development policies and a reduction of unilateral pressures, but they do not have identical trade and security interests. ASEAN countries, while welcoming market and capital opportunities, also try not to become trapped in great power competition; therefore, financial and trade cooperation will be sustainable when it is based not merely on the slogan of multipolarism but on clear interests and executive mechanisms.<\/p>\n OPEC and the necessity of adapting to the energy market<\/strong><\/p>\n OPEC’s traditional influence has been limited by the growth of producers outside the organization, new technologies, and changing demand patterns. War can increase the importance of supply coordination in the short term, but in the long term it also intensifies price volatility and the difficulty of reaching collective agreement.<\/p>\n OPEC’s future depends on more transparent supply management, cooperation with non-member producers, and understanding the growing role of gas, electricity, and minerals in energy security. The reinvention of this organization does not mean abandoning oil, but requires adapting production policy to a market that regards energy simultaneously as a commercial commodity, security infrastructure, and an instrument for the exercise of power.<\/p>\n Dependence on limited export routes makes energy producers vulnerable to political crisis, sanctions, and infrastructural disruption. Diversification of routes, investment in ports and pipelines, insurance risk management, and cooperation with various partners can reduce this vulnerability. For the Caspian littoral states and Iran as well, geography becomes power when it is connected to secure routes for export, transit, and access to markets.<\/p>\n Linking the North-South and East-West corridors can reduce transit costs and create interdependence; but sanctions and financing constraints show that transit resilience also requires economic diplomacy.<\/p>\n Iran; from economic pressure to geoeconomic resilience<\/strong><\/p>\n External economic pressure has a lasting effect when the target country cannot diversify its trade, revenue, and financial paths. From this perspective, assessing the possibility of the collapse of Iran’s economy solely in light of sanctions is not sufficient, and domestic production capacity, access to markets, transaction costs, and economic adaptability capacity must also be considered.<\/p>\n For Iran, the practical response to geoeconomic competition is the expansion of export markets, development of industrial capacity, completion of transit corridors, and reduction of dependence on a single partner or export product. The effective linkage of energy and minerals with domestic processing and technological investment can also create greater value added.<\/p>\n The world economic order is moving toward polycentricity, but this process neither means the immediate end of dollar dominance nor guarantees the success of BRICS. The power of countries will depend more than ever on the ability to manage dependencies, finance projects, preserve trade routes, and transform natural resources into industrial capacity. For Iran as well, the criterion of success is not merely presence in multilateral mechanisms, but transforming them into investment, sustainable trade, and economic maneuverability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" SCFR Online – Opinion: Competition over energy, minerals, and supply chains has expanded geoeconomic instruments and highlighted the role of BRICS and alternative paths in the world economic order.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":422766,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,13268,13427,12726],"tags":[49722,21665,24743,49725,49721,16411,48793,49724,40936,49723],"class_list":["post-422840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-note","category-strategic-perspective","category-10-en-2","tag-bretton-woods-structure","tag-brics","tag-energy-security","tag-irans-economic-resilience","tag-new-geoeconomics","tag-opec-en","tag-sareh-bayati","tag-strategic-minerals","tag-transit-corridors","tag-world-economic-order"],"yoast_head":"\n