{"id":422891,"date":"2026-11-01T08:03:51","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T04:33:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/422891\/from-the-makkah-pact-to-collective-security-a-historic-opportunity-for-west-asia\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T08:03:51","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T04:33:51","slug":"from-the-makkah-pact-to-collective-security-a-historic-opportunity-for-west-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/politics\/422891\/from-the-makkah-pact-to-collective-security-a-historic-opportunity-for-west-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"From the “Makkah Pact” to “Collective Security”; a Historic Opportunity for West Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri \u2013 University Professor<\/p>\n

This event signifies a paradigm shift among Arab countries from sole reliance on the United States toward “regional management” and direct engagement with Tehran; a development that can create both opportunities for de-escalation and risks for diplomatic calculations.<\/p>\n

Tehran, host to an emerging coalition<\/strong><\/p>\n

On Monday, October 26, 2026, Tehran hosted a delegation composed of senior security and defense officials from the three member states of the “Makkah Joint Defense Agreement”; a defense pact signed in August 2026 between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan in Jeddah, according to which any armed attack on one of the three countries is considered an attack on all.<\/p>\n

This delegation, headed by Khalid bin Salman (Saudi Defense Minister), Asim Munir (Pakistan’s Army Chief), and Ibrahim Kalin (Head of Turkey’s Intelligence Organization), met with the President and the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. This was the first meeting at this level between Iran and representatives of these three countries since the intensification of military conflicts in February 2026.<\/p>\n

The significance of this meeting must be analyzed at two levels: first, the declarative level, which mentions “de-escalation” and “support for diplomacy.” Saudi officials have explicitly stated the purpose of this trip as supporting diplomatic efforts and reducing tension between the parties involved. But at another level, this meeting carries a strategic message: the countries of the region, even those that in recent years sought movements against Iran, have realized that “security cannot be purchased” and they cannot tie their stability solely to Washington.<\/p>\n

The strategic shift of Persian Gulf countries<\/strong><\/p>\n

The policy of the Persian Gulf littoral states toward Iran has undergone an important transformation in recent months. This transformation must be viewed within the framework of the aggression and destructive war that America and the Israeli regime began against Iran in March 2025 and that was halted with a fragile memorandum of understanding in June of the same year. During this war, Iran attacked not only Israel but also American bases on the soil of regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, and Yemen’s Ansarullah also intensified its attacks on Saudi oil facilities and civilian infrastructure. This bitter experience has profoundly changed Riyadh’s calculations.<\/p>\n

Riyadh, which for decades had tied its security to the American support umbrella and assumed that American and Israeli military attacks on Iran could weaken this long-standing regional rival and transform Saudi Arabia into the region’s superior power, now faces the fundamental question: if America cannot defend its own bases against Iranian missile and drone attacks, how can it defend its allies? This question is the main motivation behind the formation of the Makkah Pact and also the presence of that country’s defense minister in Tehran.<\/p>\n

Of course, simultaneously, signs of Riyadh’s readiness for a long-war scenario are also visible: the crude oil storage program in underground facilities in Singapore from the second half of next year indicates that Saudi Arabia is planning for prolonged disruptions in energy transmission routes.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Turkey and Pakistan also have their own specific motivations. Ankara seeks to play a mediating role and strengthen its regional position, and Islamabad is taking advantage of these conditions to strengthen its geopolitical weight. Pakistan, since the beginning of the war in March 2025, has played a key mediating role between Washington and Tehran, and Asim Munir’s previous trip to Tehran last week paved the way for the holding of this quadrilateral meeting in Tehran. Therefore, the Makkah Pact is a combination of different and sometimes conflicting interests from which Iran can benefit.<\/p>\n

However, there is also a pessimistic reading: all three member states of this pact have close relations with America and the Israeli regime, and Saudi Arabia has stood alongside America in previous wars. From this perspective, their presence in Tehran may be considered, more than a sign of strategic change, a tactical effort to reduce the pressure of war on America and its allies and to lower oil prices on the eve of American elections. This reading cannot be ignored, but even if the primary motivation of the Makkah Pact members is tactical, the establishment of this communication channel between Tehran and Riyadh at the peak of tension has strategic value in itself.<\/p>\n

The Tehran meeting carries a dual message for America<\/strong><\/p>\n

This meeting in Tehran was held simultaneously with the continuation of the process of indirect Iran-US negotiations mediated by Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan. One day before the presence of the Makkah Pact members, a delegation from Qatar had come to Tehran; a trip that, according to the spokesman of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, had a bilateral nature and was related to Doha’s mediating role in Tehran-Washington relations. Iran’s Foreign Minister has announced that Tehran has presented a seven-day plan to the mediators, according to which America would lift the naval blockade and sanctions within six days, and then Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

This position indicates that Tehran is trying to separate regional negotiations from the nuclear issue and to use the presence of regional countries as a lever to strengthen its positions.<\/p>\n

But on the other side, America, while preparing for a scenario of renewed military attack, also welcomes regional efforts to persuade Iran toward compromise and diplomacy and desires conditions in which it can end the conflict with Iran more quickly, calm the current inflamed political-security atmosphere, and announce that it has also achieved its stated objectives regarding Iran.<\/p>\n

As a result, for America as well, this development (the presence of Makkah Pact members in Tehran) carries a dual message. On one hand, Washington observes that its traditional allies in the Persian Gulf have taken the path of direct engagement with Tehran. On the other hand, this engagement can help reduce tensions and create an atmosphere for advancing diplomacy.<\/p>\n

But the important point is that Arab countries do not have exactly identical concerns with America. Contrary to initial impressions, these countries also fear any comprehensive agreement that would lead to excessive strengthening of Iran. Saudi Arabia and the UAE still prefer Iran to remain in its current suspended state without achieving major concessions, while Qatar and Oman pursue an approach based on de-escalation and diplomacy.<\/p>\n

War and peace: dangerous calculations<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the military dimension, the presence of the aforementioned delegation in Tehran is taking place simultaneously with Ansarullah’s continuous attacks on Saudi Arabia and the mutual threats between Iran and America. The Makkah Pact, which was supposed to consider “an attack on any member as an attack on all members,” is now facing its first serious test. The reality is that this pact is more a political-security umbrella for crisis management than an operational military coalition. Saudi Arabia knows well that entering into a direct conflict with Iran, even with the support of Pakistan (which possesses nuclear weapons) and Turkey, could lead to the destruction of its vital infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Iran is also aware of this reality. Iran’s Foreign Minister has emphasized that Tehran is “more prepared than ever” to defend itself, but considers this readiness “for preventing war,” not welcoming it. Therefore, the presence of the aforementioned delegation in Tehran can be seen as an effort to reduce the risks arising from misunderstanding and military adventurism.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, the variable of the Israeli regime should not be overlooked. Benjamin Netanyahu in the final days of his election campaign has claimed that “90 percent of the work of destroying Iran’s nuclear program has been done,” and some unofficial reports indicate his pressure on Trump to attack before the elections. On the other side, Trump prefers that a war not begin before the Congressional elections on November 3. This time gap creates a limited window for diplomacy, in which the Tehran meeting is precisely situated.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Diplomacy in the shadow of war<\/strong><\/p>\n

The presence of Makkah Pact members in Tehran demonstrates an undeniable reality: the countries of the region have realized that in the absence of an indigenous and sustainable security framework, no one can guarantee their own security. Iran, by accepting this delegation, also showed that it is prepared, while maintaining its strategic positions, to engage in dialogue with its regional rivals. The spokesman of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had previously not considered this pact a threat against Iran and had described it as a sign of regional countries’ despair over American security guarantees; a position that indicates Tehran prefers to view this development as an opportunity to redefine the region’s security architecture, not as a military threat.<\/p>\n

However, it should not be forgotten that these dialogues are taking place in the shadow of war and military threat. As long as fundamental challenges, including the nuclear issue, the presence of American forces in the region, sanctions and blockade, as well as the movements of resistance groups, remain unresolved, any regional engagement will be fragile and vulnerable. What matters now is transforming these meetings into a sustainable and institutionalized process so that the region can exit the endless cycle of tension and confrontation. Iran, as one of the key actors, can with diplomatic intelligence transform this opportunity into a collective security mechanism; a mechanism in which the security of all countries of the region is intertwined, rather than the security of one being provided at the cost of the insecurity of another.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SCFR Online \u2013 Opinion: The presence of high-ranking delegations from the member states of the “Makkah Joint Defense Agreement” in Tehran, at a time when the region is embroiled in military tensions and the fragile process of Iran-US negotiations, is considered a turning point in the security equations of the Persian Gulf and West Asia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":422857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13268,17,12726],"tags":[49818,38838,49817,49819,48382,13297,18850,47148,15786,8357],"class_list":["post-422891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-note","category-politics","category-10-en-2","tag-collective-security-in-west-asia","tag-iran-saudi-relations","tag-iran-us-negotiations-2","tag-makkah-joint-defense-agreement","tag-makkah-pact","tag-persian-gulf-security","tag-regions-security-order","tag-regional-diplomacy","tag-strategic-council-on-foreign-relations-en","tag-8357"],"yoast_head":"\nFrom the "Makkah Pact" to "Collective Security"; 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