{"id":423098,"date":"2026-11-15T15:11:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-15T11:41:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/uncategorized\/423098\/energy-geopolitics-and-persian-gulf-security-the-consequences-of-insecurity-for-the-global-market\/"},"modified":"2026-11-15T15:11:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-15T11:41:30","slug":"energy-geopolitics-and-persian-gulf-security-the-consequences-of-insecurity-for-the-global-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scfr.ir\/en\/economy\/423098\/energy-geopolitics-and-persian-gulf-security-the-consequences-of-insecurity-for-the-global-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Geopolitics and Persian Gulf Security; the Consequences of Insecurity for the Global Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bahman Sayadi \u2013 International Affairs Expert<\/p>\n

Two Straits and one Global Market<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are two chokepoints with different but interconnected geographies in the energy economy and global trade. The Strait of Hormuz is the main route for transferring Persian Gulf oil and gas to Asian markets, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait provides the southern access of the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The simultaneity of traffic disruption at these two passages can increase transportation costs, insurance, product prices, and the time of goods movement and put global supply chains under pressure.<\/p>\n

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a distinction must be made between military assessment and economic security. The CENTCOM commander has claimed that no sign of the direct presence of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in the waterway has been observed and has considered the security of traffic manageable. However, the continuation of disruption and the distrust of shipping companies have maintained the economic risk; therefore, the claim that a route is militarily secure at a specific juncture is not the same as the sustainable predictability of trade.<\/p>\n

Ansarullah’s Power<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ansarullah’s attacks have shown that they too can affect the security of global trade without possessing a classical navy. An attack on an oil terminal or a commercial vessel, even if it does not cut the direct supply of oil to the market, is transmitted to households and economic firms through the increase in global energy prices and transportation costs.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Ansarullah’s connections with Iran do not mean its complete subordination to Iran; this movement has local roots, a governing structure, and independent objectives.<\/p>\n

The threats of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are not two identical tools, but they can simultaneously increase security and economic costs on several axes. This situation is of particular sensitivity for Saudi Arabia; because its energy infrastructure is exposed to missile and drone threats, and its export routes are also dependent on the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Air defense may be able to intercept part of the attacks, but the high cost of interceptors, pressure on stockpiles, and the necessity of protecting extensive infrastructure make the sustainability of this strategy difficult. The intensification of attacks may also bring more actors into the conflict and expand the scope of the crisis to more trade routes.<\/p>\n

Transmission of the Oil Price Increase Shock to the Global Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n

The increase in oil prices, more than being merely an indicator in the energy market, has extensive inflationary consequences. Oil prices crossing 100 dollars highlights the market’s concern about the consequences of a regional war; the increase in energy prices can also make Europe’s monetary policy more difficult and reduce the European Central Bank’s ability to contain inflation. In America as well, the market’s dependence on direct oil imports is not the only determining factor of price; refining capacity, transportation costs, insurance, sanctions, and market expectations play a role.<\/p>\n

Therefore, increasing oil supply from a specific source does not necessarily lead to a decrease in the global price. Even flexibility in issuing licenses for the import of Russian diesel to America, due to banking, insurance, and legal restrictions, does not necessarily guarantee the effective entry of cargoes or a reduction in consumer prices. Washington in such circumstances faces a conflict between geopolitical pressure and containing domestic energy costs.<\/p>\n

The Role of Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in Helping to Manage the Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

In these circumstances, the Muscat process and Oman’s role gain greater importance. Muscat’s advantage lies in maintaining communication channels with conflicting parties and focusing on reducing miscalculation. Transforming intermittent dialogues into a regional mechanism for Persian Gulf security can help manage the crisis; although mediation alone is not sufficient to resolve disputes and requires the participation of the main actors and agreement on rules of behavior.<\/p>\n

Egypt’s behavior is also an example of pragmatism accompanied by economic limitations. Cairo has given the president the authority to take necessary measures to help defend Saudi Arabia against Ansarullah attacks, but has emphasized that its mission will be defensive and will not mean attacking Yemen. Egypt’s financial dependence on the deposits of Persian Gulf countries, the need for energy imports, and the vulnerability of Suez Canal revenues play a role in the formation of this approach; therefore, Egypt seeks to support Saudi Arabia but does not want to enter a long and costly war.<\/p>\n

The global energy market faces a combination of military threats, shipping risk, government calculations, and the behavior of non-state actors. The security of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb cannot be guaranteed merely by increasing warships or intercepting missiles; because even the threat of attack can increase insurance and transportation costs. On the other hand, a military response to Ansarullah or other armed actors, without creating a political path to resolve the Yemen crisis, may perpetuate the cycle of attrition. Ultimately, the energy security of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea depends on the linkage among military management, regional diplomacy, and economic stability. None of these components alone can guarantee the sustainable security of maritime routes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SCFR Online – Opinion: The simultaneity of tension in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shows that energy security is no longer provided by protecting a single waterway or a single exporter, but depends on a network of regional interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":423088,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,13268,13427,12726],"tags":[18319,49497,24743,15787,21476,50016,18317,47148,18311,13267],"class_list":["post-423098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-note","category-strategic-perspective","category-10-en-2","tag-bab-al-mandab-strait","tag-bahman-sayadi","tag-energy-security","tag-geopolitics-of-energy","tag-global-oil-market-en","tag-muscat-process","tag-persian-gulf-security-en-2","tag-regional-diplomacy","tag-strait-of-hormuz-en","tag-yemen-ansarullah"],"yoast_head":"\nEnergy Geopolitics and Persian Gulf Security; 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