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\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u06cc\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u0628\u062a\u0646\u06cc \u0628\u0631 \u062a\u062c\u0632\u06cc\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u06a9\u06cc\u0644\u06cc\u0627\u0646 (2009) \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0633\u062a \u0622\u0645\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0622\u0646 \u0634\u0648\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0632 \u0637\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u0628\u0631\u0622\u0648\u0631\u062f \u06cc\u06a9 \u0627\u0644\u06af\u0648\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u06cc VAR \u00a0\u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0622\u0646 \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a – \u0628\u0627 \u06a9\u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u2013 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0647 \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0631\u0636\u0647 \u0645\u0627\u0647\u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0648 \u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0632\u0647\u200c\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0641\u0639\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u062a\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u0648\u0627\u06a9\u0646\u0634 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f\u060c \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0633\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0635\u0631 \u062a\u0642\u0633\u06cc\u0645 \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f. \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0635\u0644\u060c \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u06a9\u06cc\u0644\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0631\u0648\u0632 \u0631\u0633\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0647 \u0648 \u0622\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u062e\u0635\u0648\u0635 \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062d\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0647 \u0627\u0631\u0648\u067e\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0631\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0645.<\/p>\n

\u0634\u06a9\u0644 2: \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639 \u0634\u0648\u06a9 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0632 \u0633\u0627\u0644 2000 \u062a\u0627 2016<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u062d\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u0626\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062d\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0647 \u0627\u0631\u0648\u067e\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0686\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u061f \u062a\u062c\u0631\u0628\u0647 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0633\u0647 \u0645\u0648\u0644\u0641\u0647 \u0627\u062b\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a\u06cc \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062f (\u0631\u062c\u0648\u0639 \u0628\u0647 \u0634\u06a9\u0644 1).<\/p>\n

\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631 \u062f\u0631 \u0639\u0631\u0636\u0647\u060c \u062a\u0627\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0645\u0647\u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u062a\u062d\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0647 \u0627\u0631\u0648\u067e\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0633\u0647 \u0633\u0627\u0644 \u0646\u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a. \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u060c \u062a\u0627\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u0639\u0631\u0636\u0647 \u062f\u0631 2015\/2016 \u0646\u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u062f\u0647\u062f.<\/p>\n

\u0647\u0631 \u0686\u0647 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f\u060c \u0628\u0627\u0639\u062b \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0648 18 \u0645\u0627\u0647 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u062d\u062a\u06cc \u0645\u0646\u062c\u0631 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0641\u0632\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u0628\u06cc\u0634\u062a\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u0634\u0648\u062f. \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u060c \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0644 \u067e\u0627\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u0631 \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0639\u062b \u06a9\u0627\u0647\u0634 \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u062f\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0644 2014 \u0648 \u0627\u0648\u0627\u06cc\u0644 2016 \u0634\u062f\u060c \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f – \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0634\u0648\u06a9 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062b\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u0644 2015 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0631\u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f. \u0628\u0647 \u0637\u0648\u0631 \u06a9\u0644\u06cc\u060c \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0634\u0648\u06a9 “\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0641\u06cc” \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f.<\/p>\n

\u062f\u0631 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u062a\u060c \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0638\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0631\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u0622\u06cc\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u062a\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644 \u0639\u0631\u0636\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u0642\u0627\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u0646\u0641\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u067e\u0627\u06cc\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u0631\u0633\u0627\u0646\u062f\u060c \u0642\u0628\u0644\u0627\u064b \u062a\u0627\u062b\u06cc\u0631 \u0645\u062b\u0628\u062a\u06cc \u0628\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a. \u062f\u0631 \u0646\u062a\u06cc\u062c\u0647\u060c \u06a9\u0627\u0647\u0634 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0686\u0646\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0638\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u0631\u0648\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f\u060c \u0645\u0645\u06a9\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u0628\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062d\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0647 \u0627\u0631\u0648\u067e\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0634\u06a9\u0644 3: \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0634\u0648\u06a9\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0646\u0641\u062a \u0628\u0631 \u0631\u0634\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u062a\u062d\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u0647 \u0627\u0631\u0648\u067e\u0627\u061b \u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0635 \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u06cc
\"\"<\/p>\n

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