Reza Majidzadeh – Economics Researcher

In his approach to other countries, Donald Trump has shown that he is not afraid of playing the chicken game and that he is determined to confront China’s expanding hegemony. However, currently, a state of mutual risk hedging has emerged between China and the United States.

In the context of this new tit-for-tat tariff ping-pong, all Chinese imports to the United States were subject to a 10% tariff on February 4, in addition to the duties and taxes already in place under the previous Trump administration.

However, the question is whether Trump is playing this ping-pong to push China towards a deal or counter China’s influence. The United States is playing a tariff game with other countries in exchange for concessions, as was the recent experience with the new Canadian prime minister.

However, against China, he has even maintained the tariffs of his first term in office. In fact, it seems that the United States has a different model in dealing with China and, as was clearly stated in his first term, is seeking to dismantle the “Made in China 2025” strategy. It was on the basis of these developments that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on February 4 that China would impose new tariffs on some goods imported from the United States.

Coal and liquefied natural gas were subject to a 15 percent tariff, and crude oil, agricultural machinery, large vehicles, and pickup trucks were subject to a 10 percent tariff. Of course, China did not limit itself to a tariff war in this action reaction and announced that it was filing a case against the United States at the World Trade Organization. However, the organization’s regulations or procedures are not very effective, and China’s action is only a step to convince public opinion.

The scope of China’s tariff war is vast and diverse and has even reached the export of rare metals. However, from this confrontation and tariff Ping Pong, some of the preferences of the parties can be identified. For example, China is seeking to reduce the supervision of its investments in the United States, which was intensified during the first term of the Trump administration.

China wants to restore its investment conditions under the Obama era when bilateral foreign direct investment increased. In addition, China is also seeking to remove Trump’s restrictions on technology. However, this is a challenging area, and the new techno-federal structure of the world also makes it less likely that confrontations in this field will subside. Especially since Chinese companies such as DeepSeek have recently challenged the US lead in artificial intelligence.

It can also be added that China’s trade controls are also politically motivated. That is why the most recent bans, in the form of restrictions on the export of critical minerals to the United States, reflect China’s dominance in supply chains and access to materials used in high-tech. China has become increasingly willing to use sanctions against American companies. Beijing’s recent efforts to exert influence in key markets, such as drones and critical minerals, indicate a growing desire to strengthen supply chains and impose economic costs on rival countries.

In general, China uses its economic leverage to achieve long-term political goals. In such circumstances, the country is trying to consolidate its growing commercial power and become the main driving force in changing the patterns and arrangements governing the international economy and trade. Therefore, Chinese policymakers are creating several global, regional, and bilateral formats of geo-economic arrangements in various trade-finance-logistics fields, but alongside these initiatives, they also consider a managed scope of trade war necessary to achieve their long-term goals and to drag the opponent into the zone favorable to their interests.