On the basis of the strategic agreement in 2008 calling for friendship and cooperation between the two nations of Iraq and the United States, in June 2020, strategic talks between Iraq and the United States began. One of the key aspects of the strategic talks that caused sensitivities, was the continued presence or withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq.

It was finally agreed that the US combat troops would leave Iraq by the end of December 2021, which happened on Friday, December 31. It was also agreed that the US training forces would remain to train the Iraqi army, police and security forces, as well as for the intelligence cooperation. In fact, what happened was the end of the presence of combat troops and continuation of the training mission of the American forces in Iraq. But the fundamental question that arises here is, basically, why the US military mission did not end completely, and what prospects can be imagined for the continued presence of the US training forces in Iraq in the light of the country’s internal developments?

What is stated in the final statement of the US-Iraq strategic talks is that continuation of the US military training mission in Iraq is a mutual wish of both sides, which is itself based on the requirements of each side:

United States: The United States has spent a lot of money in Iraq since 2003 and has created a lot of benefits for itself in that country. This means that the country is not ready to leave Iraq completely. On the other hand, after leaving Afghanistan, the Biden’s administration came under a lot of criticism and does not seem willing to repeat the measure it took in Afghanistan in Iraq as well. That’s why the United States felt the need that in order to defend its interests in Iraq, its military mission should not end completely.

Iraq: The fact is that during the withdrawal of troops in 2011 and 2021, the political currents inside Iraq were not uniform, and differences of opinion eventually led to the US military staying in Iraq with a training mission. In 2011, after the Iraqi government refused to accept US conditions such as granting immunity to US troops, some Iraqi currents, such as the Kurds, advocated the staying of the US troops. Following the occupation of parts of Iraq by the ISIS, the issue was linked to the withdrawal of US troops; therefore, with the return of US troops to Iraq in 2014, the number of supporters of US troops staying in Iraq increased and went beyond the Kurdish case.

For example, following the assassinations of Sardar Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes in January 2019, when the Iraqi parliament convened to force the United States out of Iraq, only 170 out of the 329 Iraqi deputies were present. Although the exit plan was eventually passed and became a law, it should be noted that 159 members of the Iraqi parliament indirectly opposed the US withdrawal from Iraq by not attending the session.

In addition to Iraq’s background and experience, withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban to power undoubtedly affected the outlook and mentality of Iraq’s political elite. Therefore, it can be said that withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq still has serious opposition inside Iraq.

In addition to the Iraqi parliament, the Iraqi government led by al-Kadhimi was not determined to withdraw US troops from Iraq because the government did not enforce the January 2019 parliamentary resolution.

Prospect for US military presence in Iraq

On October 10, 2021, Iraq held its fifth parliamentary election since the adoption of the 2005 constitution. The importance of the Iraqi parliamentary elections is in that they will appoint a new prime minister, a new president and a new speaker of the parliament, as well as giving a vote of confidence to the cabinet.

The question is that whether the government that is made out of this parliament is sensitive to the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and will take a position in this regard? Based on the final results of the recent Iraqi parliamentary elections and the victorious coalitions, it should be said that the new Iraqi parliament will focus much less on the withdrawal of troops than the fourth parliament, because in the fifth parliamentary elections, forces opposing presence of the US in Iraq failed to achieve favorable results and the currents supporting withdrawal of US troops from Iraq have become weaker than in the 2018 elections, which led to the coming to power of Adil Abdul Mahdi’s government and approval of the law of January 2019 on the necessity of withdrawal of troops.

The Sadr coalition won the recent Iraqi elections which the head of its political branch claims that “Sadr movement opposes the presence of any foreign forces in Iraq. But when the presence of non-combat American forces is in line with the logic of supporting, training and equipping Iraqi forces, remaining of such forces in Iraq could be acceptable.”

However, the continued presence of US covering forces in Iraq could exacerbate internal divisions and difference in the country in future.