In an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website about some reports of Ukraine’s desire and intention to build a nuclear bomb in the face of Russia, Rahman Qahramanpour emphasized that the existence of a threat, even if it is a critical threat, is not a sufficient condition for building a nuclear weapon. He stated that countries such as South Korea and Taiwan have also threatened to build nuclear weapons at times due to critical threats from North Korea and China, but they failed to make the weapons. Therefore, in the case of Ukraine, it should be said that a critical threat like Russia is not a sufficient condition for Ukraine to build a nuclear bomb. In addition, it cannot necessarily meet this desire, just as South Korea and Taiwan failed to do so.

In response to the question, to what extent does Ukraine have the ability to build a nuclear bomb in the current situation? He said Russia may thwart Ukraine’s attempt with its advanced weapons. On the other hand, even if Ukraine has the necessary infrastructure and manpower to build a bomb, it needs a large budget for this task, which it does not currently have.

This international affairs expert clarified: Assuming that Ukraine can use its nuclear knowledge from the Cold War and its nuclear scientists to build a bomb, the critical question is whether this bomb can deter Russia’s nuclear threats and whether it will allow it to regain its lost territories in the Crimean Peninsula, Donetsk, and Luhansk?

Stating that the nuclear bomb is a weapon not to be used, and in a situation where Russia occupies 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, even acquiring a weapon, let alone building one, cannot lead to the recovery of these territories, Qahramanpour said: Let’s assume that Ukraine decides to use nuclear weapons against Russia, in that case, what will be Russia’s reaction?

He continued: Russia has the world’s second-largest nuclear arsenal after the United States, and if it wants to deter Russia’s nuclear power, it must build a nuclear triad, namely nuclear submarines, nuclear bombers, and missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Therefore, the Ukrainian problem will not be solved by building a few intercontinental missiles; Ukraine must build a large nuclear arsenal for this purpose.

The international affairs expert said: If Ukraine, under the current circumstances, moves towards building nuclear weapons with the green light of the West, then other actors under security pressure will be encouraged to do so, and these actors include South Korea and Taiwan, so this decision has widespread security concerns. If this happens, the half-dead structure of the nuclear order after World War II will be destroyed, and we will witness an inordinate expansion of the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons, which could create international insecurity.

Qahramanpour clarified: What is on the West’s agenda is to bring Ukraine into NATO in the long term so that it can be placed under NATO’s nuclear, security, and defense umbrella. If the West agrees with Russia, this solution may be the least expensive and most sustainable way to ensure Ukraine’s security. Of course, Germany and the United States are against Ukraine’s membership in NATO and consider it a prelude to tension between NATO and Russia. Still, if Trump’s efforts to create peace in Ukraine succeed, the United States and Russia may reach a solution.

The international affairs expert added: It is said that Trump will make a peace proposal to Russia, stating that Ukraine’s membership in NATO will be delayed for 20 years, but the question is, what will happen if Russia occupies the rest of Ukraine’s territory during this time? Another solution that the Europeans have proposed for peace in Ukraine is for Ukraine to become a member of the European Union sooner and benefit from the European Union’s defense framework.

He said: “Solving Ukraine’s security puzzle is a difficult task due to its neighborhood with Russia and the size and magnitude of Russia’s arsenal, as well as being in a fragile geopolitical position between Europe and Russia. That is why it is said that the future of Europe’s security architecture depends largely on the fate of Ukraine because Ukraine is a great barrier for Europe against Russia, and if this barrier breaks, countries such as Moldova, Romania, and the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) will be exposed to serious risks. Poland is also concerned about the consequences of this issue. Qahramanpour emphasized that the nuclearization of Ukraine will not be a sustainable solution to Ukraine’s security puzzle in the long term, and in general, Ukraine faces fundamental challenges in realizing such a decision. It seems that these news and reports are meant to put more pressure on the West to support Ukraine against Russia and change the possible policy of the United States and Donald Trump.”