Nima Shojaeian – International relations expert

For a significant part of the history of international relations, the structure of the global system was primarily based on competition among great powers. During the Cold War, the fate of many crises was determined in Washington and Moscow, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States held the position of the dominant power in the international system for a long period. However, developments in the recent decade indicate that this pattern is gradually changing. Although the competition between the United States and China remains the most important axis of global politics, in practice, the role of emerging powers in shaping the new order is undeniable.

Middle powers are no longer merely actors that choose one side between two major poles; rather, they seek to create a new and relatively independent space for the pursuit of their national interests by leveraging economic capacities, geopolitical position, and multilateral diplomacy. These countries neither seek global leadership nor wish to be defined within the framework of rigid and permanent alliances. They have adopted a strategy based on flexibility, balancing, and diversification of foreign relations; a strategy that has become one of the main characteristics of the emerging order.

India; striving for a global role

No country symbolizes the transformation of the status of middle powers as much as India. In recent years, New Delhi has sought to develop its relations simultaneously with the United States, Europe, Russia, Arab countries, and East Asia without entering into bloc politics. This policy has enabled India to play the role of an independent actor in many international crises.

India’s strategic relations with the United States have expanded in the fields of technology, defense, and maritime security; however, the country has simultaneously maintained its energy and defense cooperation with Russia. Extensive negotiations for a free trade agreement with the European Union also indicate that New Delhi seeks to become one of the most important economic links between East and West.

In fact, India is no longer merely an Asian power, but is transforming into one of the main pillars of the future multipolar order. The country’s population, industrial capacity, domestic market, technological capability, and geopolitical position have made it an actor that no major power can ignore.

Turkey seeking strategic autonomy

Turkey is another example of the transformation of the status of middle powers. In recent years, Ankara has demonstrated that it is not willing to calibrate its foreign policy solely based on the preferences of its Western allies. Membership in NATO on the one hand, and simultaneous cooperation with Russia, Central Asian countries, the Arab world, and Africa on the other, indicate Turkey’s effort to maintain strategic freedom of action.

In the energy sector as well, Turkey seeks to strengthen its geopolitical position by becoming an energy transit corridor between Asia and Europe. Through the development of indigenous defense industries, drone exports, expansion of economic presence in Africa, and increasing influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey is striving to base its foreign policy on strengthening strategic autonomy.

This pattern indicates that middle powers are no longer merely security consumers, but are striving to become producers of security and regional influence themselves.

Australia’s role-playing in the shadow of Indo-Pacific competition

At first glance, Australia appears to be a country far from the epicenter of global crises, but the intensifying competition between the United States and China has significantly elevated its position. Canberra now sees itself at the forefront of strategic developments in the Indo-Pacific region and has therefore made extensive investments in defense, submarine industries, cybersecurity, and intelligence cooperation.

The AUKUS pact should also be analyzed within this framework. This agreement is not merely a military project, but is considered an effort to consolidate Australia’s position as one of the main actors in the region’s security architecture. Alongside this approach, Australia has also sought to expand its diplomatic presence in Africa and international institutions. This policy demonstrates that middle powers no longer think only about regional security, but also seek to increase their global influence.

The new approach of some Arab countries of the Persian Gulf

Perhaps the most significant development in recent years can be observed in the behavior of some Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. These countries, which for decades had based their security primarily on U.S. support, are now pursuing a strategy of relative diversification of foreign partners.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have simultaneously developed their relations with the United States, China, India, Europe, and other Asian powers. They are trying to capitalize on great power competition to attract investment, technology, and economic opportunities.

This change in behavior indicates that even Washington’s traditional allies are no longer willing to calibrate their foreign policy on the basis of unilateral dependence, as far as possible. In the new order, diplomatic flexibility and the ability to simultaneously engage with multiple powers have become one of the most important sources of power.

The future order will not be shaped solely by great powers

One of the most important characteristics of the emerging order is that the great powers are no longer the sole determinants of the rules of the game. Emerging powers are also gradually increasing their strategic weight by leveraging economy, technology, energy, geographical position, and active diplomacy.

Unlike the Cold War era, these countries do not consider themselves compelled to choose between East and West. By adopting a multilateral foreign policy, creating a balance among rival powers, and actively participating in regional and global institutions, they have expanded their room for maneuver. From this perspective, the future multipolar order will not be merely the result of competition among the United States, China, and Russia, but will be the product of the actions of a set of emerging powers, each of which has become an influential actor in its own geographical sphere.

Developments in recent years show that the center of gravity of global politics is not located solely in the capitals of great powers. Actors including Iran, India, Turkey, Australia, and some Persian Gulf countries, each with different patterns but a common goal, are strengthening their strategic autonomy and expanding their international influence.

These actors are not seeking to disrupt the global order, but rather to redefine its rules in a way that provides more space for the pursuit of their national interests. Therefore, the future of the international system cannot be understood merely by analyzing the relations of Washington, Beijing, or Moscow. Understanding the new order requires recognizing the growing role of emerging powers; countries that, through balancing policies, flexible diplomacy, and decision-making independence, have become important actors in the multipolar world of the twenty-first century.