Davood Ahmadianpour – International Affairs Expert

In recent years, Europe has faced a security crisis on its eastern borders. The Ukraine war has clearly revealed the structural limitations and security dependencies of this continent. Numerous reports, including analyses by the European Council and European research institutes, emphasize that Europe has weaknesses in managing direct threats from Russia, and without U.S. support or guarantees, effectively countering Russia’s military and energy power is difficult.

Europe is not only confronted with defensive limitations but also, due to internal political complexity and economic dependence on Russia, is unable to make rapid, unified decisions. Internal disputes over defense budgets, reliance on Russian energy resources, and concerns about the economic consequences of any military confrontation are among the main obstacles to creating an independent deterrent capability for the European Union. This security weakness has created space for U.S. and Russian foreign policy initiatives to view Europe not as a primary decision-maker but as a reactive actor in power dynamics.

In facing the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. has proposed initiatives such as establishing a “buffer zone” aimed at reducing direct contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces and creating space for temporary compromises. However, many analysts have emphasized that such plans face severe limitations:

• Establishing buffer zones without strong military guarantees can result in the consolidation of occupied areas and weaken Ukrainian sovereignty;
• Experience shows that similar proposals, due to conflicting interests among Europe, the U.S., and Ukraine, have not produced tangible outcomes;
• These plans also allow Russia to gain geopolitical concessions through limited military pressure while reducing pressure on itself.

Overall, although these American initiatives appear to be efforts to reduce tensions, in practice, they do not account for Europe’s limitations and Russia’s resistance, and thus, their feasibility is low.

Europe’s security vulnerabilities and the U.S.’s limited initiative create space for Iran to play a more active role in balancing power in Eurasia. Tehran’s cooperation with Moscow in the energy and transport sectors, particularly railway projects and oil exports to Central and South Asian markets, exemplifies Iran’s exploitation of the created vacuum.

According to the Russian Center for Security and International Studies, connecting Iran’s and Russia’s transport networks to Afghanistan and Asian markets enables both countries to reduce Europe’s and the U.S.’s economic dependencies and enhance their regional maneuvering capacity.

These Iranian movements, in addition to providing economic benefits, also contribute to geopolitical balance in the region. With the U.S. focus on competition with China and Russia, Tehran can reduce direct Western pressures and strengthen its independent security diplomacy capabilities.

This situation simultaneously requires intelligent management of relations with all regional and international actors to prevent opportunities from turning into threats. The opportunity obtained for Iran highlights the importance of independent security diplomacy.

Tehran can consolidate its position in the new Eurasian order by leveraging soft power, regional networks, and economic and energy cooperation, and with strategic acumen, counter unstable U.S. policies and exploit Europe’s security gaps to play a decisive role in regional power balancing.

This reorganization not only helps reduce external pressures but also enhances Iran’s capacity to manage extra-regional crises. From a realpolitik perspective, a successful actor can create space for maneuver and influence amid major competitions and stronger actors’ constraints; a strategy that Tehran can implement precisely in the current conditions.

Iran’s Strategic Opportunity in the Geopolitical Reorganization of Eurasia

The Ukraine crisis and Europe’s security limitations, alongside the U.S. prioritization of competition with China and Russia, have created a new reality in Eurasia. In this reality, Iran, relying on its energy capacities and transport networks, has the opportunity to redefine its role in regional and extra-regional balancing.

Iran’s geopolitical reorganization requires independent diplomacy, a security strategy based on domestic capacities, and precise management of relations with major actors. In this context, Tehran can leverage the opportunities created and strengthen its position in Eurasian security, while Western and European actors grapple with structural limitations and dependencies.

In the new Eurasian order, countries that can manage flexibility, diplomatic independence, and economic power with precision will gain the most from the gaps created by the unstable policies of major powers, and Iran is currently one of the key actors in this process.