In the mentioned treaty, which was signed based on a local and of course noisy referendum, the four eastern regions of Ukraine, namely Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, were annexed to Russia.

Putin announced that Russia will defend those territories with all possible means; a view that can lead to a perception of the threat of using nuclear weapons if necessary.

President Zelinsky announced that he would put Ukraine’s request for immediate NATO membership on the agenda, which is largely symbolic. On the other hand, the West and at the head of it the United States clearly declared that they will never recognize such an annexation. With regard to international organizations, the secretary general of the United Nations also announced that such an action would lack any legal value. In the Security Council, although the resolution condemning the annexation by Russia was vetoed, China’s abstention gave some people the impression that Beijing’s warnings to Moscow about reducing the level of tension and conflict in the Ukraine campaign has not been contrary to reality.

Regardless of the active and reactive measures in the issue of annexation, what is currently occupying minds as a puzzle is the battlefield and developments in the positions of the two involved parties and their supporters. What has created Russia’s action is the change in the face of war at the domestic, global, and especially public opinion levels, and what it will create will be weakening diplomacy, increasing the scope and intensity of war, and increasing problems inside that country.

The face of war today

For weeks, the campaign in Ukraine has not been going on according to Russia’s wishes. On the one hand, Western arms aid, as well as intense media pressure from Kiev’s allies, have reduced threshold of Moscow’s tolerance. From this point of view, to some extent, it can be concluded that actions such as annexation or increasing missile attacks to the checkpoints and exits of the disputed areas are carried out under the influence of those actions and the need for a persuasive response.

Ukrainian advances in Kherson, Kharkiv and Luhansk continue. Undoubtedly, Western arms aid is the most important factor behind Ukraine’s recent victories. If the objective and struggle of the West is to increase Russia’s expenses due to the country’s attack on Ukraine, at least it has been somewhat effective in the past months. Apart from the issue of arms support, Western media also put Russia in a tight spot every day more than the previous day. It must be admitted that domestic and international public opinion has been greatly influenced by the global media effort and has put pressure on Russia. Daily, the media talk about the escape of Russian soldiers, the successes of Ukraine and also the failure of the Kremlin’s plans, and all such cases have changed the face of war both in the field of action and in the media; an issue that has pushed Russia to the necessary harsher and more reflective behavior such as the recent annexation treaty.

Weakening diplomacy and intensifying conflicts

The more the level of tensions and conflicts increases, the more involved parties distance themselves from diplomacy. In addition to this equation, the issue of increasing self-confidence of the parties after each victory should be considered. After the recent conquests, Zelinsky spoke about the liberation of Crimea and this means his determination to continue the conflicts. Currently, Russia’s action on the issue of annexation has made the situation more complicated. After signing the annexation treaty, the President of Ukraine announced that there will be no peace talks as long as Putin is the president of Russia. On the other hand, Russia has sent its reserve forces to the battlefield, which could cause a change in the balance of the battlefields in Ukraine if Ukraine’s quick counterattacks do not reduce its effectiveness. In this way, things like continuation of the war, whether in the direction of occupation or liberation, sending more troops and weapons to the campaign, and any kind of more tension-causing measures, in addition to weakening the chances of diplomacy, will also intensify confrontations.

Internal situation in Russia

Since Russia’s failure to advance towards Kiev, the focus of the conflict has shifted to the Donbas region. Now Russia is signing the annexation treaty, which is the demonstration of that country’s relative success. If Russian public opinion ignores the incompleteness of the conquest of those regions, the counter-attacks, the recapture and the advance of the Ukraine army in some regions, they will most likely support Putin. However, Russia’s action can be seen as part of the Kremlin’s effort to alleviate Russia’s bad conditions inside the country around the issue of the Ukraine war. In addition to the anti-war nationalists, now President Putin is mobilizing his domestic supporters such as the veterans as well as the Siloviks such as the Chechens and their leader Kadyrov and the Wagner Group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and finally the press and war bloggers (Millblogger). The first category is due to the criticism of the public mobilization method and the lack of official declaration of war with Ukraine, the second category is due to their opposition to Defense Minister Shoigu and General Lapin, the commander of the Ukrainian Front, as well as other military personnel, and the third category is due to the asymmetric role and direction in the issues of war and adding to the fire of several divisions, have put pressure on Vladimir Putin.

Finally, it can be concluded that the Ukraine war is the scene of a complex theater. Every actor, in whatever role he plays, gives the audience the feeling that this violent show is not going to end.