Hormoz Jafari in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations referred to remarks made by the Spokeswoman of the White House who had commented on Joe Biden’s decision to revise the relations with Saudi Arabia, and noted:” Security for energy was the prevailing principle over the U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia after the World War II, but for well over a decade, particularly during Obama’s Administration the equation has changed; from one hand the U.S. engineered a revolution in Shale oil and from the other hand, it followed Asia based strategy and confrontation with China through bipartisan support in foreign policy field”.

Having elaborated the U.S. proclaimed strategy to depart endless wars, decreasing clashes and establishing a new kind of interactions with the Middle East countries, he added:” having understood the changes, regional countries made effort to expand their interactions with China as the new emerging power. China was also a new energy market for Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, they witnessed even during Trump’s tenure of office that the U.S. had the highest level of cooperation with Saudi Arabia, when Aramco installations were attacked, the U.S. president said:” we do not want oil! China and Japan that need oil should defend Saudi Arabia!”.

Rescinding the Equation of Oil for Security for Saudi Arabia

The analyst of international affairs continued:” it was clear for Saudi Arabia that the equation of oil for security has rescinded and can not be counted on. The gap further widened as Biden took office, and Congress was putting its weight behind his approach, especially on the necessity to end the war in Yemen. Even at the junction, Biden had also spoken of revision in relations with Saudi Arabia, he took measures in this respect”.

Having stated that the gap between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia originated in the geopolitics of energy consumption, changes in the production and consumption field of energy as well as changes that have taken place in the structure of authority in the international system through shaking the structure of unipolar authority based on the U.S. hegemony, Jafari added:” with coronavirus declining trend and improvement process in economic status towards revival, the revival of oil production did not take place in the U.S.; because the Democrat Party Administration of the country attempts to bring the volume of greenhouse gas emission to zero through the policy of Clean Energy by 2030. In such a situation, no new authorization for drilling in federal lands was given to oil companies. There was only one exception that the authorization was given under pressure from Congress as well as public opinion”.

Having stated that with rising energy prices, tremendous pressure was exerted on the U.S. economy, he said:” Biden Administration succeeded to adopt the budget for the bill it had in the energy field, and proceeded with the policy. The U.S. Administration expected to have the company of Saudi Arabia all along the way. Biden even took a risk to his prestige when he made a visit to Saudi Arabia”.

Jafari reminded:” in Saudi Arabia, the issue of oil production was not dealt with. Instead, the U.S. concern about providing a part of oil against receiving Chines Yuan into the market was raised too. If such a measure was done or to be done, one can speak of the death of the petrodollar which has a strategic impact on the international fiscal field; because according to the agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., Riyadh should sell all of its oils in the U.S. dollar; if this does not happen, in fact, it means that the most important player countries in the world energy market including Iran, Russia and Venezuela will not sell their oil in the U.S. dollar”.

The analyst of international issues said the White House tried to make Saudi Arabia increase its oil production in order to control oil prices at least before the mid-term election of the Congress. He continued:” through the collaboration of Saudi Arabia with OPEC Plus, the policy of the Biden Administration was not successful. With the reduction of oil production only a few days before the midterm election of the Congress, naturally, a new shock will be given to energy prices in the U.S. and its economy in view of the present unprecedented inflation”.

Saudi Arabia’s Purpose of Striking Democrats

He spelled out:” if Saudi Arabia had any other objective except striking Democrats, it could have delayed the announcement of its decision to reduce its oil production for a few days, but with its approach, a serious blow will hit economic and political positions of Democrat Party in the Congress midterm election. Moreover, the reduction of oil production will strongly help Moscow, because it exerts tremendous pressure on European allies of Washington on the eve of the winter season. That’s why the U.S. is very angry and assesses Saudi Arabia’s decision as an obvious accompaniment with Moscow’s policies against the West, in a way that Menendez, the U.S. Congress representative announced that he would not vote for any bill that enhances the U.S. support to Saudi Arabia”.

Having reminded that China expected strategic partnership from Saudi Arabia and the country did not expect reduction of oil production as well as its rising price, he underscored:” At present situation, initially the rival party of Biden Administration at the Congress election will take the most benefit followed by Russia that will gain more incomes”.

The expert on international issues stated that Democrats were looking for the kind of relations with Saudi Arabia that is not based on carte blanche. He said:” Democrat Party will take decisions against Saudi Arabia, but at the present condition, it must be seen to what extent they have maneuverability. Anyway, the trend of deepening the gap in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia interactions is a reality. In order to fill the vacuum that originated from the U.S. unwillingness to provide security and general requirements, Saudi Arabia has the inclination towards extensive interaction with China. The relations between the two sides have gone far beyond the stage that the U.S. can probably hinder. Moreover, the U.S. maneuverability is not absolute either; as if when they suspended the sale of F-35 fighters to UAE, it approached France to buy Rafael fighters”.

According to Jafari if Republican Party was in the office in the U.S., it could have probably solved a part of the problems with Saudi Arabia.

He continued to elaborate on the consequences of spiraling tension in relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and added:” reduction of oil production, inflation and increased energy price cause Democrats to be under pressure in the Congress election and probably Republicans will win the majority of seats in the next Congress. The situation will cause to reduce the authority of the Biden Administration in carrying out its macro policies like Clean Energy and or JCPOA revival. Moreover, among other consequences of spiraling tensions are probably an enhancement of motivation in Arab countries of the Middle East to interact with Iran following a deep gap in their relations with the U.S., recession, and serious reduction of economic growth at the international macro level.