Uncertainty about Brexit and Scenarios Ahead

2019/10/26 | interview, Politics, top news

Strategic Council Online: A European affairs expert says the House of Commons' reaction to Mr. Johnson's plans was a loss and at the same time a win for him but did not break the Brexit impasse. He said in the next few months, the situation in the United Kingdom remains ambiguous as to how London wants to exit the EU.

Morteza Makki, speaking to the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said: For the first time in three years, the House of Commons voted in favor of a plan to withdraw from the European Union with a deal, but they set another precondition that has somehow put Boris Johnson in a difficult position which leaves some uncertainty about the fate of the Brexit.

“The House of Representatives has said that despite the overall ratification of Mr. Johnson’s agreement with the European Union, there is not enough time left to reach agreement on the 110-page withdrawal bill in the next few days. So there is a high possibility that some changes would be made on the details of Mr. Johnson’s agreement with the European Union that would go far beyond what Mr. Johnson expects. For the same reason, the state of ambiguity on how the UK is going to exit the EU remains in effect.”

The analyst said the British community has become extremely bipolar, and part of the population is in favor of UK withdrawal from the European Union, with a difference of 1% or 2%, and the rest are in favor of staying in the EU. Mr. Johnson has threatened to suspend the principle of the deal if the threat of delaying Brexit is carried out because he knows that if he agrees to the delay, it is likely for the House of Commons to reach a compromise on the details of the agreement with the European Union, not expected and sought by Mr. Johnson. For this reason, the idea of a referendum is still on the table, especially if early elections are to be held.

Makki said: “Under the current circumstances, it is up to the EU to decide how to request the MPs to vote on delaying Brexit.” If the EU wants to accept a few-day or several-week delay, then there will be other scenarios, including the question that what will be the reaction of the pro-Brexit MPs on withdrawing from the European Union with this delay of a few weeks.

“But if the EU agrees to the House of Commons demand for a three-month delay, the EU will still face different scenarios, such as early elections, referendum, and the possibility of Mr. Johnson’s resignation and election of a new prime minister.

The European affairs expert on the assessment that under the current conditions the UK exit from the European Union by October 31 is virtually ruled out said Mr. Donald Tusk, President of the Council of Europe, has urged all members to vote in favor of the three-month delay. But France and specifically its foreign minister have said there is no need to delay Britain’s exit from the European Union. The French reaction, however, is noteworthy as one of the two main powers of the European Union.

He added the Germans are also keen for Britain to exit the EU with a deal, as the consequences of a no-deal exit will not only affect the UK but also the whole of the European Union and other countries with large trade relations with the UK will incur losses. These concerns exist in the European Union. So the prevailing view in the European Union is that if Britain wants to leave the EU, this exit will be with a deal.

Boris Johnson | Brexit | Britain | House of Commons | United Kingdom

https://scfr.ir/en/?p=114931

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