Ahmad Haji Sadeqian told the Strategic Council of Foreign Relations, referring to the meeting of the British Foreign Office regarding Yemen, which was held in the presence of the representatives of the United States, England, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and the representative of the United Nations, without inviting the representatives of the National Salvation Government, stated: After the period of stagnation of two to three months along with the ceasefire, we are again witnessing the rise of developments and positions in the political environment, which are mostly carried out by the United Nations, the United States and the West with the aim of extending the ceasefire.
He added: During Biden’s trip to the region, the only issue that he could rely on as the achievement of his government in the Middle East was the issue of the ceasefire in Yemen. He has not achieved anything in reviving the JCPOA, he has not been successful in his dealings with bin Salman, and the issue of Yemen was the only issue that the American media could manipulate as an achievement of the Biden administration in the Middle East. Therefore, it is very important for them to continue this truce until the mid-term elections of the American Congress.
This analyst of Yemen issues stated that for the extension of the ceasefire in the second round, Ansarullah had set a series of conditions, including that the Sana’a airport remains active and flights continue from this airport, the disputed routes are reopened and the economic pressure on Saudi Arabia is reduced; this is while none of them were implemented.
He continued: Although Saudi Arabia promised to reopen Sana’a airport, this did not happen and the airport was closed again. The entry of fuel ships is also facing problems. For this reason, Ansarullah emphasized by publishing a statement of the Supreme Political Council that they will not extend this fire if the current situation continues.
Objectives of the five-party meeting
Haji Sadeqian said: Considering that the continuation of the ceasefire in Yemen protects Saudi oil facilities from Ansarullah attacks and the West attaches great importance to the continuation of Saudi oil production and exports in the current situation, the efforts of the United Nations and Western countries to extend this ceasefire has increased.
This expert on Yemen issues added: In the “five-party meeting” that was held with the British initiative to coordinate the fate of the ceasefire with regard to the positions of the National Salvation Government and to review the granting of concessions requested by Ansarullah, proposals such as this were made that in addition to Amman, Baghdad and Muscat flights, other destinations should also be added to the flight destinations of Sana’a airport. Of course, Egypt, which has already had a flight from Sana’a to it, recently announced that it will not allow a flight from Sana’a to Cairo airport for security reasons until some issues are resolved.
He added: One of the most important proposals and conditions that Ansarullah sought from the beginning of the ceasefire was to pay the salaries of government employees in order to reduce the economic pressure on the Yemeni society. Since the 2014 Ansarullah revolution, based on the agreement made with Hadi’s government, the salaries of employees throughout Yemen were supposed to be paid from the customs revenues of Aden and Hodeidah ports and the sale of oil and gas condensate. After the Saudi attack, Mansour Hadi’s government violated this agreement and after that, with the transfer of the central bank from Sana’a to Aden, which happened in 2017, Ansarullah and the people who lived in the areas under the control of the National Salvation government did not have access to national revenues.
The director of the Yemen desk of the Mersad think tank stated that it seems that this discussion was raised in the “five-party meeting” and that negotiations were also held in Muscat for the merger of the central bank of Sana’a and Aden.
He continued: In practice, it does not seem that these proposals will be implemented, because one of the proposals that Ansarullah has put forward and emphasizes on is the issue of exercising sovereignty over Hodeidah Port and Sana’a Fardgah. The flights and ships that enter Yemen are completely under the control and management of Saudi Arabia. Passengers are allowed to enter or leave Yemen with the coordination of Saudi Arabia, and the travel times of ships and planes are determined by Saudi Arabia, which is a clear violation of Yemen’s national sovereignty.
Haji Sadeqian added that the complete reopening of Sana’a airport and Hodeidah port will remove the pressure of the siege from the National Salvation government and regarding the merger of the central banks, considering that a series of new financial resources will be available to Ansarullah and the National Salvation government, which will cause a serious change in the political situation. and the field of the Yemen crisis; So, Saudi Arabia ultimately prevents its implementation. Therefore, it seems that, like the previous two stages, only promises are being made by the Saudis and the Westerners.
Haji Sadeqian added that the complete reopening of Sana’a airport and Hodeidah port will remove the pressure of the siege from the National Salvation government and regarding the merger of the central banks, considering that a series of new financial resources will be available to Ansarullah and the National Salvation government, which will cause a serious change in the political situation. and the field of the Yemen crisis; Therefore, Saudi Arabia ultimately prevents its implementation. Therefore, it seems that, like the previous two stages, only promises are being made by the Saudis and the Westerners.
He stated that it is not clear how these promises will be fulfilled to Ansarullah, and considering the positions of the Westerners, it is not clear whether the ceasefire will be extended this time as well. He said: Ansarallah is preparing itself for all scenarios. On the other side, the Saudis and the Arab coalition are seriously strengthening their forces. Among them, by creating a new group called “Eliman Al-Saeed” with 14 brigades in the east of Yemen, they have organized and equipped it. Minor clashes have also taken place in the last two weeks in areas such as Taiz, Al-Bayda and around Marib, which seems to rekindle the flames of conflicts.
This analyst of Yemen issues stated that Ansarullah has already announced its conditions for the extension of the ceasefire and the Westerners are looking for coordination, adding: Ansarallah has categorically announced its positions. It should be seen how the West can offer an operational proposal. Taking into account the total conditions, it is not possible to make an accurate prediction about the fate of this ceasefire.