Dr. Mahmoud Dehghan, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referred to the concern expressed by the French minister of economy about the disruption of European interests by the United States and Washington’s dominance over that Union due to the Ukraine crisis, adding: The United States is the beneficiary of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the country succeeded in persuading Moscow to attack Ukraine after five years of planning, which was launched after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, and with its special tactics, and Russia also committed such mistake.

Saying that the US suffered a lot of losses during the Trump era and that due to the “America First” strategy, Europe distanced itself from it and was thinking about “independent European defense”, he noted: In fact, the US wanted to kill two birds with one stone; both to involve Russia with Europe and to remind Europe that this Union has no power without the US. It achieved both the goals. Russia and Europe both suffered, and the US is managing things from miles away. They even tried to involve China with Taiwan under the same situation, which China avoided.

The university professor while pointing to French President Emmanuel Macron’s displeasure with the several times the price of the US and Norwegian gas in a situation where Europe is having a difficult winter and is faced with inflation and public protests, continued: Although Europe was able to provide preparations for this winter, according to the forecasts, the European energy crisis in 2023-2024 will be greatly intensified due to the increase in Russian gas export restrictions and the unavailability of any new natural gas projects until next year.

He added: According to the conditions we are witnessing, the world order will change after the war in Ukraine, and whether we want to or not, we are in a situation where there is talk of the possibility of a nuclear war. The advance of the Ukrainian army by receiving the arms aid that NATO officially sends to that country, showed that Russia is weaker on the ground more than it was thought.

Dehghan, while explaining the situation of the battle between Russia and Ukraine, added: The world is entering a new order in which Europe and Russia definitely do not have their former position, and this system will be organized based on the bipolar system of China and the United States.

US dominance over Europe

Emphasizing that in this new world order, Europe will be dominated by the United States, he explained: If the conflict between Ukraine and Russia does not lead to the use of nuclear weapons, we will have the West under the leadership of the United States and a very weakened Europe in the field of energy, foreign and even military front, and in contrast, the East will be powerful economically and militarily, led by China. Russia will also be weakened if it is not involved in the collapse of its internal republics.

The analyst of international affairs, saying that the US, like the World War II, stands far from the battlefield and seeks to organize an order according to its interests, added: As Mr. Biden officially announced, the US is looking to increase the members of the Security Council and an order it follows is based on the acting of the current five main powers.

Dehghan, while referring to the concern expressed by various European authorities, experts and research institutes regarding the consequences of the Ukraine war and the future situation of Europe, noted: Europe had economic strength before the Ukraine war, due to which, in the Trump era, a kind of show of strength began before the United States. At that time, Europe was talking about the “brain death of NATO” and independent defense, but it had not reached the desired military power and had the assessment that because the US has separated itself from Europe, it can balance between Russia and the US and many agreements they sign in the military, nuclear and energy fields should act better.

According to the university professor; now that balance has been disrupted and currently Europe, which finds itself involved in a war with Russia, has neither the military power to stand up to the US, nor does it have the favorable economic and energy situation to be able to take completely independent steps. Therefore, after the historical periods of 1914 and 1945 when a new order ruled the world, we will probably witness a new order based on the competition between China and the US in the future.

Referring to the intensification of criticisms and internal divisions among European countries, the expert on international affairs, regarding the possibility of liberating Europe from the US domination and establishing relations with China, reminded: Europe was previously seeking to strengthen economic cooperation with China, which could be a form of bringing military cooperation. But with Russia’s attack on Ukraine, this possibility also disappeared.