Amin Rezainejad – Expert on Subcontinental Issues

The first issue is the increase in India’s military superiority over Pakistan. The F-35 fighter jets, which use the latest stealth technologies and artificial intelligence capabilities, can seriously threaten any type of Pakistani air defense. A capability that was previously highly challenging. For example, in the 2019 border conflict between India and Pakistan, an Indian fighter jet was shot down by Pakistani air defenses in the Line of Control area, and the Indian pilot was captured. India has a significant military advantage over Pakistan, which will increase significantly with acquiring these aircraft. The Pakistan Air Force currently operates mainly older Chinese fighters – such as the JF-17 Thunder – and Russian fighters – such as the MiG-29 and Su-30 – which are technologically and operationally inferior to the F-35. This could lead to a shift in the air balance between the two countries. In addition, India’s access to the F-35 could have a significant psychological impact on Pakistan, reinforcing its sense of weakness and threat. This could lead to increased bilateral tensions and even the possibility of military crises between the two countries. This could also make Iranian air defense systems more attractive to Pakistan, given their successful performance against American and Israeli aircraft in recent years.

On the one hand, Pakistan is likely to seek to strengthen its military relations with China and demand more advanced military equipment from this country. This could lead to an intensification of the Sino-Indian competition in the region. In addition, Pakistan may seek to use asymmetric warfare and seek to strengthen militia groups or develop smaller (tactical) nuclear weapons to change the balance of power in its favor.

Strategic competition with China is another issue that could complicate the dimensions of this event. China is currently developing its own advanced fighter jets, such as the Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-31. However, the F-35 fighter jets are still at a higher level in technology and performance. India’s access to these fighters could pose a direct threat to China’s air force. India and China are in a strategic rivalry in the Indian Ocean region, and by equipping themselves with the F-35, India could increase its capabilities in air surveillance and control of the Indo-Pacific region, thereby putting more pressure on China.

In contrast, China will likely use this opportunity to strengthen its military relations with Pakistan. This could lead to an intensification of the “India-China-Pakistan” triangle of competition. A competition that, given its scale, could also open the door to Iran and Russia. In addition, China may invest more in developing stealth fighters and other advanced military technologies to counter the F-35 threat.

The sale of the F-35 to India indicates a strengthening of the India-US strategic axis against Chinese influence in the region. This could lead to a new “balance of power” in the Indian subcontinent. As a member of the Quad (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India), India plays an important role in limiting China’s influence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Equipping the Indian Air Force with the F-35 could strengthen this role and even extend the scope of the competition between India and China to the Southeast Asian region. On the other hand, the sale of the F-35 to India can be identified as a “triggered factor.” A factor that causes other countries in the region, including Pakistan and China, to accelerate their weapons programs. This could lead to an increase in the share of military budgets in the GDP of these countries and effectively sacrifice economic development in all three countries for the sake of arms war. However, given the size of India and China’s economies, Pakistan suffers more from this competition than these countries. Rising military tensions could also increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used in the region, especially given that all three countries—India, Pakistan, and China—possess nuclear weapons.