Ali Ahmadi – Expert on European Affairs

From Historical Alliance to the Gradual Erosion of Trust

Since the end of World War II, transatlantic relations have been one of the main pillars of the Western-centered international order. Relying on its military and economic power, the United States guaranteed Europe’s security, while Europe, in return, became Washington’s strategic partner within institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Nevertheless, developments over the past decade indicate that this historic alliance has entered a phase of gradual erosion.

Disagreements over the Ukraine war, the energy crisis, trade tariffs, climate policies, and even approaches toward China have demonstrated that the priorities on both sides of the Atlantic are no longer fully aligned. Analyses published by the European Council on Foreign Relations emphasize that Europe is gradually moving toward a more independent definition of its security and economic interests.

This transformation cannot merely be regarded as the product of changing governments in the United States or Europe; rather, it should be viewed as part of a structural transformation in the global order. Europe has reached the conclusion that absolute dependence on the United States, in a world moving toward multipolarity, may entail heavy strategic costs.

Economy, Energy and the Beginning of Strategic Divergence

One of the most important factors behind this divide is the issue of economy and energy. The Ukraine war and the resulting energy crisis placed European economies under severe pressure and turned Europe’s security and economic dependence on the United States into a controversial issue.

Studies by the European Council on Foreign Relations regarding the future of Europe’s energy indicate that the European Union is attempting to shield itself from future geopolitical shocks through large-scale electricity production, development of new infrastructure, and diversification of economic partners. This approach is not merely an economic policy, but part of Europe’s strategic autonomy project.

At the same time, many European elites believe that Washington’s unilateral policies — from extraterritorial sanctions to pressure for full compliance with U.S. security strategies — threaten Europe’s long-term interests. Analyses by other institutions also show that even among America’s traditional allies, growing dissatisfaction with Washington’s approaches has emerged.

This situation has pushed Europe toward redefining its relations with other powers. Today, discussion of economic and even limited security cooperation with China is no longer considered a political taboo in Europe. According to reports by the RUSI institute, some European circles view cooperation with Beijing not only as an economic necessity, but also as a tool for creating balance against American pressure.

Europe Between the United States, China and Russia

Today, Europe finds itself in a complex position. On the one hand, it remains dependent on the American security umbrella, while on the other hand, its economic and geopolitical needs are pushing the continent toward greater engagement with China and, in some areas, the management of tensions with Russia.

This duality has become particularly evident in the fields of technology and artificial intelligence. While the United States seeks to turn technological competition with China into a full-scale confrontation, many European countries are unwilling to completely sever technological and industrial cooperation with Beijing. Reports regarding possible Washington-Beijing talks over rules governing the use of artificial intelligence also demonstrate that the United States itself has become aware of the limitations of absolute confrontation.

Within this framework, Europe is attempting to define a middle and independent position for itself. The increase in Germany’s military capabilities, which has received attention in recent analyses, is also part of this process. Nevertheless, unlike in the past, Berlin no longer acts merely as the European arm of American policies, but seeks to play a more independent role in the continent’s security.

A Geopolitical Opportunity for Iran

The growing divide between Europe and the United States can create important opportunities for Iranian diplomacy. At a time when Europe is focusing more than ever on its economic interests and energy security, the capacity for redefining relations with Tehran has increased. Due to its geopolitical position, energy resources, and role in regional equations, Iran can become one of the important actors in Europe’s diversification strategy. From an economic perspective, Europe cannot remain indifferent in the long run to Iran’s energy and transit capacities.

From a political perspective as well, Europe’s divergence from America’s hardline and unilateral policies creates greater room for diplomatic maneuvering. This does not mean the end of disagreements, but rather indicates the emergence of a new realism in European foreign policy that is more focused than before on practical and economic interests.

In such an environment, Iranian diplomacy can take advantage of divisions within the West to establish more balanced relations with European actors and politically and economically benefit from Europe’s concerns regarding absolute dependence on Washington’s strategies.

The divide between Europe and the United States is no longer merely a temporary disagreement or the result of changing governments, but rather a sign of a profound transformation in the structure of the Western order. Europe, under pressure from economic, energy, and geopolitical crises, is gradually moving toward a form of strategic autonomy that could transform the future of transatlantic relations. In the meantime, countries such as Iran can, through a precise understanding of these developments, benefit from the opportunities arising from the intensification of the transatlantic divide to strengthen their regional and international position.