Maritime Security of the Persian Gulf and the New Power Architecture

Dr. Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations, referring to the new security conditions in the region, stated: “The Israeli regime’s military attack on Doha on September 9 cannot be regarded as a limited incident; rather, it must be interpreted as a dangerous event within the security order of the Persian Gulf.” He emphasized: “This attack was the first direct action by the Israeli regime against one of the members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, and in this regard, it shattered the traditional taboo against aggression toward Arab states in the Persian Gulf region.”

He added: “This attack not only violated Qatar’s national sovereignty but also challenged the credibility of the U.S. security umbrella—the very framework that for decades has been the foundation of security for Persian Gulf states.” The international relations professor continued: “Qatar, as the host of the largest U.S. military base—Al Udeid—expected absolute protection from Washington; yet, the Israeli regime’s attack carried out under this umbrella severely undermined the credibility of American security guarantees. Today, in Arab capitals, this critical question is being raised: If the United States cannot defend its closest ally, how much can it truly guarantee the security of others?” This university professor explained: “The Israeli regime intended to send a strategic message through this action: that its own security interests take precedence over any American commitment to its regional allies. This message was clearly understood across the Arab world, and as a result, the destructive role of the Israeli regime has now become one of the central pillars in Persian Gulf security calculations.” He added: “From now on, the possibility of direct Israeli attacks against other countries is no longer a hypothetical scenario but a tangible threat that must be accounted for in all defense planning.”

Bakhshayesh Ardestani stressed: “This attack, in fact, marked the end of the era in which Persian Gulf states relied absolutely on the U.S. security umbrella, compelling them to seek indigenous and regional alternatives to ensure their own security. Today, the Persian Gulf region stands on the threshold of organizing a new, multi-layered security architecture, in which the previous unipolar order has given way to more complex interactions. Evidence of this claim is the strategic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan; reportedly, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are also pursuing similar agreements.”

This university professor, referring to Arab responses following the Israeli regime’s attack, said: “Immediately after the Doha incident, an emergency Arab-Islamic summit was convened to express solidarity with Qatar; however, more significant than political statements was the decision by the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council to establish new defensive measures.” He explained: “These measures included strengthening intelligence sharing, establishing an early warning system, and conducting joint air defense exercises; yet, historical experience with initiatives such as the ‘Island Shield’ force has demonstrated that such plans typically encounter difficulties during implementation.” Bakhshayesh Ardestani noted: “The Island Shield project, which was intended to serve as the cornerstone of joint defense for the Persian  Gulf Cooperation Council, never became operational due to lack of coordination and political disagreements. The same challenges have now resurfaced, and historical distrust and hidden rivalries among member states remain the primary obstacle to any genuine convergence.”

He emphasized: “In crisis situations, each country prioritizes its own national interests and is unwilling to share sensitive military information with others. On the other hand, establishing joint defense systems requires both technical and political integration—neither the necessary infrastructure nor the requisite political will currently exists.” He added: “Therefore, although the decisions of Persian  Gulf Cooperation Council members constitute an immediate response to the threat posed by the Israeli regime, they are largely symbolic in nature and will not bring about any fundamental change in the regional security architecture. Consequently, the Persian Gulf’s security vulnerability remains intact.”

Bakhshayesh Ardestani recalled: “Nevertheless, the emergence of limited maritime cooperation between Egypt and Saudi Arabia—as reported by the Stimson Institute—could serve as a model for more practical cooperation in the future. These collaborations demonstrate that Arab states are seeking to establish complementary security networks extending from the Gulf of Aden to the Strait of Hormuz, aimed at countering threats to shipping and energy routes.”

He stressed and warned: “Iran must carefully monitor these trends, because any new Arab alliance in the maritime domain—even if ostensibly directed against the Israeli regime or in response to insecurity—could, in practice, lead to a shift in the balance of power in the Persian Gulf. Tehran must employ smart diplomacy and active field presence to prevent the formation of structures that threaten its national security.”

Iran’s Strategy for Deterrence and Effective Maritime Presence

In another section of the interview, Dr. Bakhshayesh Ardestani, highlighting the necessity of Iran’s active role in securing the maritime domain of the Persian Gulf, said: “Iran must leverage its indigenous capabilities and geopolitical position to contribute to regional security.” He elaborated: “Historical experience has shown that whenever regional countries have relied on external powers, the costs of distrust and instability have increased. Iran must become the central pillar of regional security diplomacy and revive and actively pursue initiatives such as the ‘Hormuz Peace Initiative.’” He added: “To prevent security threats against shipping in the Persian Gulf, three simultaneous strategies are essential: first, enhancing military deterrence through expanded naval and drone presence; second, strengthening technical and intelligence cooperation with littoral states; and third, utilizing diplomatic channels to reduce misunderstandings.”

He emphasized: “Iran must maintain continuous security dialogues with countries such as Oman and Qatar, as these nations have consistently played a balancing role in Persian Gulf equations. Active participation in joint anti-piracy and counter-smuggling exercises can also contribute to confidence-building.” This university professor noted: “In a context where the balance of power in the region is shifting and new actors such as China and Russia have entered the arena, Iran must strive to solidify its position as a stable maritime power in the region. Any vacuum in Iran’s presence within Persian Gulf security dynamics may be filled by temporary alliances whose objectives are not necessarily aligned with Tehran’s interests.”

Finally, he stressed: “If Tehran can simultaneously strengthen its military deterrence and pursue and reinforce regionally focused dialogue-driven initiatives, it can assume a pioneering and decisive role in shaping the new security architecture of the Persian Gulf. The future of maritime security in the region does not lie in the hands of extra-regional powers, but in intra-regional cooperation and a shared understanding of real threats.”