Vahid Ghorbani – International Affairs Expert

This warning was issued following reports of a secret visit by François Wu, Deputy Foreign Minister of Taiwan, to occupied Palestine in recent weeks. This covert visit indicates that Taiwan and the Israeli regime are moving beyond normal diplomatic interactions, with the main area of this cooperation seemingly being sensitive security and defense fields.

Previously, such interactions were conducted with great caution due to pressure from China and the One-China principle. Distinguishing between Taiwan and mainland China could have serious geopolitical consequences for the Israeli regime’s relations with Beijing. Beijing’s reaction highlights the strategic importance of the Taiwan issue for China’s national security and will affect the balance of power in East Asia.

Objectives of the Israeli Regime in This Cooperation

According to reports, informed sources stated that Wu’s visit was to examine defense cooperation. The primary focus of this visit was the establishment of Taiwan’s new missile defense system, known as T-Dome, part of which is modeled on Zionist technologies such as the Iron Dome.

For the Israeli regime, exporting military technologies brings economic and political benefits. This cooperation, even if informal, strengthens Tel Aviv’s position as a global provider of advanced defense technology. The exchange of military and technological experiences can lead to the joint development of new military tools, software, and systems.

An important structural factor in changing the Israeli regime’s calculations is China’s policy toward the United States and West Asia. The strategic competition between China and the United States – especially during the Trump era – has pushed Tel Aviv to rely more on Washington and its close partners. Consequently, cooperation with actors such as Taiwan has become essential for strengthening security networks.

China adopts a neutral or sometimes critical stance in West Asian conflicts – such as the Zionist regime’s aggression against Iran or Gaza. This approach has led some segments of the Israeli regime’s political community to feel that Beijing is not serious about defending this regime’s security interests and does not play an effective role in reducing threats against it. Therefore, Tel Aviv seeks to strengthen relations with actors that can significantly influence China’s policy.

Taiwan’s Objectives in Strengthening Defense Capabilities

The T-Dome system is a multi-layered air defense system. Apparently, part of its design and content is inspired by systems like the Israeli regime’s Iron Dome.

Taiwan, drawing on the Israeli regime’s knowledge and experience in multi-layered air defense, is building a defensive structure against China.

If this cooperation leads to the transfer of advanced radar and missile interception technologies, the island’s defensive capabilities against China’s anti-ship, cruise, and ballistic missiles will increase. This enhanced capability creates an asymmetric deterrent tool. Taiwan can make key areas around the island more difficult for Chinese missiles to penetrate. The result will be a reduction in vulnerability in Beijing’s military calculations and a shift in the regional balance of power.

When a smaller actor like Taiwan enhances its defensive capabilities, relative defensive power moves toward more complex and multilateral dynamics.

China’s Reaction, Its Tools, and Broader Consequences

China’s announced reaction reveals the importance Beijing places on preventing this cooperation. Does this warning signal that the Taiwan issue is becoming more securitized in Beijing’s foreign policy?

The One-China principle is now not just a political rule but part of China’s national security. Beijing considers any external interference a security threat. The intensification of military operations and maneuvers around Taiwan – as gray-zone pressure and operational deterrence – confirms this approach.

Official protests against foreign interventions indicate that China views Taiwan as a potential threat to national security and regional hegemony. The competitive aspect with the United States and the response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have turned this into a global security challenge. Beijing now shows greater sensitivity to foreign interventions in the regional security landscape, which is precisely the definition of securitization in international relations.

Beijing’s tools against the Israeli regime are primarily diplomatic, protest-based, media-related, and political, not economic or military measures that could force Tel Aviv to change. These protests are common in low-cost diplomacy and are not considered a real deterrent leverage. China has repeatedly reacted to similar actions by the Israeli regime.

Economic relations between China and the Israeli regime are strong, and cooperation in trade and investment continues. However, Beijing cannot unilaterally compel the Israeli regime to accept its demands using these tools. China’s most important pressure tool is its role in the political, economic, and military-security dynamics of West Asia, especially given China’s recent intensification of its critical stance on the Palestinian issue. China can also promote resolutions or statements against the Israeli regime’s policies in international forums.

Recent tensions surrounding Taiwan and Israeli regime-Taiwan interactions – with the explicit support of Washington – directly impact the framework of Sino-U.S. strategic competition, intensifying security and military dimensions. The development of Taiwan’s deterrent capability increases the perceived level of hostility between the two superpowers. Washington has declared support for Taiwan and the Israeli regime a security red line and is unwilling to reduce it to facilitate relations with Beijing.

The geopolitical consequence of this trend will be the consolidation of a multi-layered regional deterrence against China, increased strategic ambiguity, and a redefinition of the balance of power in East Asia. Thus, Taiwan’s enhanced defensive capabilities and potential reactions from the U.S. and its allies will occupy a new position in any of Beijing’s military calculations.

Possible Scenarios

The Taiwan issue is part of a long-term, complex structural competition between China and the United States in regional and global security. With these interactions, the boundaries of hostility and the playing fields for regional and international actors will become clearer after decades of ambiguity.

This situation indicates that mediation – whether by China in West Asian dynamics or by the Israeli regime in interactions with China and the United States – does not yield the desired outcome.

We should expect scenarios such as intensification of China’s gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, expansion of Taiwan’s informal security networks, increased Beijing’s role-playing in West Asia to pressure Tel Aviv, and the complication of China-U.S. competition with shifts in the East Asian balance of power.