Fariborz Arghavani – Associate Professor of International Relations, Shiraz University

Statistics show that China and the United States have a trade deficit of nearly $250 billion. This deficit is not so significant that Trump can easily ignore it, given his interest in trade and the slogans he raised in the previous term and the 2024 election campaigns. Therefore, we should expect him to try to get the Chinese on the path he wants in various ways, primarily through the imposition of numerous sanctions.

Another point is that although the Chinese plan to circumvent possible sanctions or reduce their impact, the country will definitely move towards negotiations. Just as during the previous Trump presidency, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Trump in Alaska and reached reasonable agreements.

That is, despite the plans it has made to reduce or eliminate the pressures of the Trump era, Beijing also has negotiations on its agenda and will probably try to reduce the volume of sanctions by making concessions or limiting them to areas that will not have an adverse effect on the country’s industrial and manufacturing economy. Therefore, the idea that the Chinese will ignore the negotiated solution is not very realistic. Although, if the negotiations are not successful, they will choose other solutions.

Recently, the Economic Times wrote in an article that China will announce new policy measures to protect its exports from the threat of Trump’s latest tariffs. By presenting a nine-point plan including export credit insurance, increasing financing for international trade, and supporting cross-border e-commerce, it is strengthening its export sector to counter the possible increase in tariffs by the Trump administration.

These measures aim to reduce the impact of the anticipated US trade restrictions and maintain a favorable environment for Chinese exports. Of course, considering the volume of Chinese exports to the United States, which is estimated at over $400 billion, and most of it includes manufactured goods, the imposition of customs tariffs on them by Trump will cause severe damage to Chinese companies and it does not seem that it can be compensated by solutions such as e-commerce or insurance because insurance companies in China can pay for a certain amount of this damage. Moving towards the expansion of e-commerce, given that most Chinese products and exports to the United States are consumer products, is time-consuming and may not necessarily respond to or compensate for American tariffs in the short and medium term. Even if we accept that e-commerce can be an effective solution, the Americans will have the same ability to exercise control and restrictions in this area, and the Chinese will probably be forced to move towards selling through intermediaries and third parties to the United States.

Finally, although Trump talks very quickly and simply about imposing sanctions or tariffs on Chinese goods, which will undoubtedly be detrimental to the Chinese, this process also harms the American economy.

Most Chinese goods are manufactured and consumed in the United States, so imposing customs tariffs on these goods will directly impact the American economy by creating a shortage of supply in the American market and, as a result, increasing prices in this country.

Therefore, it cannot be said that the imposition of customs tariffs will be entirely in favor of the United States and against China because the economic interdependence between the two countries will also cause some damage to the American economy. As a result, this process will probably lead to dissatisfaction among parts of American society or even American firms that are trading partners with the Chinese.`