The Impact of the Caspian Sea Water Level Drop on Maritime Borders and National Security
Dr. Saman Ghasemi, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referring to the worrying trend of the Caspian Sea water level drop, stated: “According to satellite data, the water level of the Caspian Sea has dropped by more than one and a half meters over the past three decades, and this trend, if continued, could cause fundamental changes in the maritime borders of countries.” He explained: “The drop in water level, in addition to environmental consequences, has extensive geopolitical implications; because the Caspian water borders are defined based on the water level, and with the shift in this level, the likelihood of disputes over islands, platforms, and access routes increases.”
The analyst added, “In many existing documents, the baseline for determining borders is dependent on the average water level, and the drop in this level changes border calculations. Therefore, coastal countries must agree on a fixed framework for managing the climatic consequences on borders before the crisis reaches a point of tension.” According to Ghasemi, “Alongside these changes, secondary threats are also taking shape, including an increase in salt dust, damage to biodiversity, and climate migrations. These trends threaten the national security of countries and could lead to competition over remaining resources and waters.”

Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation in Managing Environmental Crises
The geopolitics expert, emphasizing the necessity of regional cooperation, said: “The Caspian Sea is a complex system of shared interests, and no country alone can manage its crises, therefore, it requires multilateral mechanisms in which Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan take coordinated action to combat environmental pollution, revive fish stocks, and conduct climate monitoring.”
Ghasemi reminded: “Iran can play a leading role in the southern axis of the Caspian. The experience of cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in climate monitoring and the use of remote sensing technologies is a model for other countries. Also, the formation of specialized working groups in the fields of environment, fisheries, and groundwater resource management can strengthen confidence-building and synergy.” He warned: “If environmental cooperation does not align with geopolitical objectives, countries may move towards competition and mutual restriction in the future; therefore, Caspian environmental agreements must be institutionalized not as a symbolic commitment, but as part of the security doctrine of the coastal countries.”
According to this expert, “Iran has high scientific and technical capacity to present joint plans in the fields of wetland restoration, reducing oil pollution, and combating land subsidence. Active participation in joint environmental projects, in addition to ecological benefits, could be Iran’s soft diplomacy tool in the north of the country.”

Development of Energy and Transportation Infrastructure on the Southern Coast of the Caspian
Ghasemi, emphasizing the link between the environment and the maritime economy, stated: “Protecting the Caspian and developing coastal infrastructure are two sides of the same coin. Unsustainable development on the southern coast of the Caspian poses a threat to energy security, while smart development based on environmental assessment can strengthen both energy security and Iran’s geopolitical position.” He said: “Port projects such as Amirabad, Astara, and Anzali must be developed simultaneously with climate monitoring systems and sustainable infrastructure. Cooperation with regional countries for standardizing transportation routes, using green fuels, and combating oil pollution is essential.”
Ghasemi finally noted: “The Caspian Sea is not merely a natural resource, but a geostrategic expanse that could play the role of vital straits in the future. Climate change, energy competition, and transnational projects in Central Asia have placed the Caspian at the intersection of environment, security, and geopolitics. To prevent further damage, Iran must formulate its comprehensive maritime security doctrine based on climate stability as soon as possible.”