Seyed Mohammad Hosseini – Economic Affairs Expert

For decades, analyses of Iran’s power in geopolitical literature have been focused primarily on two elements: vast hydrocarbon reserves and its strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz. Whenever Iran’s levers of pressure have been discussed, the oil market, energy exports, and maritime security in the Persian Gulf have been at the center of attention. However, developments in recent years suggest that the structure of power in the global economy is undergoing rapid change, and new sources of influence and deterrence are emerging.

Today’s world no longer revolves solely around oil. Food security, raw materials for advanced industries, agricultural supply chains, and emerging energy sources have become just as important as oil was in the twentieth century. In such an environment, Iran possesses capacities that have received less attention, yet in the future they may become effective instruments of geopolitical bargaining.

Understanding this reality has become increasingly important for Western policymakers. This is because new economic dependencies are not necessarily defined in the fields of oil and gas, but rather are taking shape in sectors directly linked to the future of global food security and energy security.

Chemical Fertilizer: An Effective and Forgotten Factor in Global Food Security

The war in Ukraine and the crises in global supply chains revealed an important reality. Global food security depends, before anything else, on sustainable access to chemical fertilizers rather than merely on agricultural fields.

The increase in natural gas prices in recent years caused a surge in the cost of producing chemical fertilizers. Numerous economic studies demonstrated that disruptions in the fertilizer market can have effects far broader than disruptions in the market for certain agricultural products. Reduced access to fertilizers directly affects grain production, agricultural output, and food prices. Iran enjoys significant advantages in this field. Access to vast natural gas resources, urea production capacity, and a suitable geographical position for exports to regional markets have made Tehran one of the potentially important players in the chemical fertilizer market.

The significance of this issue becomes even more apparent as many of the world’s major fertilizer producers face export restrictions, environmental pressures, and rising production costs. In recent months, even China has imposed new export quotas on urea in order to manage its domestic market. This trend indicates that the global fertilizer market is gradually entering a sensitive and strategic phase.

Under such circumstances, a country capable of providing stable production and reliable exports in the field of chemical fertilizers will not merely be an exporter of petrochemical products; rather, it will become part of the global food security equation.

Green Hydrogen: The Geopolitics of Energy in the Twenty-First Century

If chemical fertilizer is linked to the future of global food security, green hydrogen is related to the energy security of the coming decades. Many industrialized governments, particularly in Europe, consider hydrogen to be one of the most important tools for the transition away from fossil fuels.

Competition over hydrogen is not merely a technological competition. Just as competition over oil became a geopolitical competition in the twentieth century, competition over the production, transportation, and standardization of hydrogen has acquired strategic importance in the twenty-first century.

Researchers in the field of international relations have repeatedly warned in recent years that the primary battle of the future will not be solely over hydrogen production, but rather over the establishment of governance rules and transfer mechanisms. A country that can secure an effective position in the hydrogen production and transportation chain will play a significant role in the future energy order.

From both geographical and energy perspectives, Iran possesses considerable capacities in this regard. Extensive energy resources, access to open waters, a transit position, and the possibility of connecting to Asian and European markets create conditions under which Iran can, in the long term, become one of the important players in the hydrogen economy. Realizing this potential will, of course, require investment, technology transfer, and long-term planning, but its strategic importance is such that it cannot be excluded from future geopolitical equations.

Power in the Age of Supply Chains

One of the most important lessons of recent crises is that the concept of power is changing. In the past, controlling raw resources alone was important, but today controlling supply chains has become even more significant.

A country capable of maintaining a presence in the vital links of the global economy will enjoy a degree of importance that may even prove more effective than military power. This reality is clearly visible in the fields of semiconductors, rare elements, advanced batteries, and even chemical fertilizers.

Under such circumstances, Iran must move beyond the traditional oil-centered geopolitical perspective. Future economic power will not be defined solely through crude oil exports. Participation in production chains, involvement in strategic industries, and playing a role in global food and energy security will shape new sources of national power.

This transformation is particularly important at a time when many countries are reassessing their economic dependencies. Wars, sanctions, and geopolitical crises have led governments to pay greater attention to the security of supply chains. This trend creates new opportunities for countries capable of presenting themselves as reliable suppliers.

The Role of the Strait of Hormuz in Redefining Iran’s Bargaining Power

For years, it was assumed that Iran’s most important strategic lever was its position in energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This assessment still retains its importance, but it no longer explains the entire reality. Today, Iran possesses the capacity to influence global equations in areas extending beyond fossil energy. The chemical fertilizer market, food security, petrochemical supply chains, and the emerging hydrogen economy can all become new sources of geopolitical influence.

The significance of these capacities lies in the fact that, unlike oil, they are less exposed to rapid substitution and are directly connected to the fundamental needs of human societies. Food security and future energy security are two areas toward which governments cannot remain indifferent.

The world is entering a phase in which geopolitical power is no longer measured solely by the number of barrels of oil or the volume of energy exports. Supply chains, food security, advanced technologies, and clean energy have become determining elements of national power. Within this framework, Iran possesses capacities that are defined beyond its traditional role in the oil market. The production of chemical fertilizers, access to inexpensive energy resources, an outstanding transit position, and the capability to participate in the hydrogen economy can create new levers for increasing the country’s bargaining power.

The future of Iran’s geopolitics will not be determined solely in Hormuz. Part of this future will take shape in the world’s agricultural fields, in fertilizer production plants, and in clean energy transmission networks; places where power will be exercised through less visible, yet deeper and more enduring, channels.