Abdol-Reza Faraji-rad – Associate Professor of Geopolitics

US-Europe ties became complicated after President George W. Bush’s era and his controversial invasion of Iraq followed by a favorable close relationship during the presidency of Barack Obama that prevailed between countries along the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean. However, with the arrival of President Trump, such close relations have almost disappeared.

Several factors have contributed to the distrust between Washington and Brussels. First, the US has introduced heavy tariffs on imported goods from Canada, China, and several European countries. During and after his presidential election campaign, Trump has always promised that he will act towards increasing US production and return its outgoing capital to the country.

Distrust in the US – Europe relations

To achieve this goal, Trump’s strategy has been to upsurge tariffs for certain imported goods such as steel and aluminum. This has caused European disappointment and reciprocation. The dispute still continues, although Americans seem to have somewhat lessened their pressure. But Europe’s distrust in the trade with the US remains.

The second dispute between the US and Europe is about the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which has raised concerns and caused Europeans to hesitate on having a coherent relationship with Washington. Even in the United States, protests have been launched against the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement, and most of the US states declared their respect for the Paris agreement.

Another issue is the debate on NATO and President Trump’s pressure on the US allies to have a bigger share in the budget of the military alliance. This led Europeans to realize that the US president was not very much committed to the issue of European security. What matters to him, they believe, is materialistic benefits and that he has no strategic view on the issue.

Although Europe has agreed to increase its share of NATO spending, the Europeans are still distrustful of Washington’s policies and strategies. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated: “We have to stand on our feet and we can no longer cooperate much with the United States.”

These issues occurred at a time when the Russian-Ukrainian dispute was ongoing, a top concern amongst Europeans. In fact, Eastern and North European countries believe that Russia is violating their airspace and they felt they needed the Americans and NATO to back them more than ever.

Washington’s withdrawal from the JCPOA

Another issue of great importance for US-European relations is Washington’s withdrawal from the JCPOA. After the US exit from the international deal, Washington launched the first package of sanctions against Iran, while the second package will be arriving in November, in which the countries that already cooperate with Iran, especially European countries, will be sanctioned by the US if they continue to have transactions with Tehran.

JCPOA is a deal that Europe, alongside the US, has played a major role in shaping it. The Europeans initiated the agreement with Iran and in the earlier stages of the negotiations, they were prone to reach an agreement with Tehran when former US President George W. Bush caused damages to the deal.

In the next phase, the US played a role and negotiations between Iran and the P5 + 1 led to JCPOA deal. But President Trump broke the deal in May, announcing that he wanted to put Iran under severe economic pressure, including stopping its oil exports and cutting off its trade exchanges through the international banking system.

Europe and the JCPOA

In the meantime, Europe had a number of issues with the American measures. First, Europeans considered JCPOA a security issue for themselves. Second, the agreement was considered as an issue of credibility for the European countries that participated in the negotiations because it was an international agreement that the Europeans played an important role in its shaping. The third issue was the US pressuring European firms while ignoring the interests of Europe. European officials contend that President Trump is focusing on the American interests and that the benefits of the US allies are of no significance to him. However, after the US withdrawal, Europe considered the virtues of the agreement and announced that it will keep the deal and defend its security and commercial benefits.

Notwithstanding, major European firms often have trade relationships with the United States, and in case if they also continue trade relations with Iran, the US will impose sanctions on them as a result of which they are expected to suffer heavy damages.

For this reason, it’s difficult for major companies to maintain trade relations with Tehran, and Europe is looking for leeway to maintain economic ties between smaller companies and Iran. Europe is also seeking to introduce a new SWIFT banking system to make financial transactions with Iran possible.

Conclusion

It seems that economic issues between Europe and the United States will be ongoing, and there is no clear prospect to the dispute between the two parties, at least during the first term of the Trump presidency. Trump is an aggressive and unpredictable person, and Europeans cannot push forward with a solid relationship with the current US administration.

Under such circumstances, there are two issues that will impact European-American relations in the future. First, as the mid-term elections of the US Congress are coming in November, it might be possible that the Democrats win the majority of votes in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate. Second, if President Trump fails to win the presidential elections in 2020, the European-American relations will face new facts and new changes.