In relation to EU sanctions on Moscow, the issue of ineffectiveness of such measures can also be investigated. While since the beginning of the Ukraine war, nearly six sanctions packages have been implemented by Brussels against Moscow, it seems that even in the heart of Europe, there is a view that these sanctions have not punished Moscow and have failed to make it retreat, but on the contrary, have increased pressure on Europe.
Recently, Viktor Orban, the right-wing Prime Minister of Hungary, also announced that the European sanctions strategy on Russia has not been effective and that this bloc needs a new strategy.
It seems that the issue of lack of common positions and interests in the European Union, especially in the foreign policy dimension, is the most important reason for the gap and lack of success in the decisions of this Union and the implementation of these policies. Despite the many efforts made in relation to the adoption of a common foreign policy from the Maastricht (1992) to Lisbon (2009) treaties, Brussels has never been able to easily implement a policy, especially at the macro and strategic level.
Regarding the causes, perhaps the most important one is the attention of the member states to national interests and prioritizing them over transnational interests in the form of a common union. As with the Russian sanctions, Brussels does not have the ability to create a strong and clear consensus against Moscow. On the one hand, there is pressure from the United States and its European allies such as Lithuania to intensify sanctions against the Kremlin; Sanctions that are the most difficult are defined in the energy sector; And on the other hand, the interests and limitations of countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary make it difficult to achieve results. For this reason, the multiplicity of interests and lack of consensus in decision-making and drawing foreign policy goals and strategies make their effective implementation difficult.
Of course, in addition to the lack of decision-making power and achieving consensus, the realism and chance of success of a strategy according to the conditions is also a significant issue. As mentioned, the most important and most effective option for European sanctions is in Russia’s energy sector, but mentioning words like the most important and most effective does not guarantee the success of a policy, because just as Russia needs to produce and sell energy, Europe also needs to buy and consume it.
It may be easy to say that there is no immediate and suitable replacement for the supply of Russian oil and gas to Europe; Even if it is found, countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, due to being landlocked, cannot easily implement the program of changes in the source of receiving gas. On the other hand, even with an alternative source, considering the volume of Russian exports, the price of energy will remain high, and the economy of European countries will not be able to bear this increase in fuel costs, as Orban also pointed out.
It should be noted that according to statistics, since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, the price of fuel in Europe has increased by nearly 20 percent; An issue that can be aggravated with the beginning of the cold season; Therefore, Europe is unsuccessful in the matter of choosing the desired targets in Russia for sanctions, because it has targeted a sector that it needs, and this is contrary to realism in the field of politics, despite the limitations of tools and levers.
Although the sanctions on Russia by the European Union were from the beginning with economic goals and focused on the sharp reduction of this country’s incomes, the increase in energy prices not only caused a serious problem to this country’s incomes and its balance of payments, but also to the European countries themselves with an economic crisis. Although the West was successful in shaping public opinion and providing arms assistance and preventing the military conflict from spreading to other parts of the region, it appeared weak in the issue of exerting effective economic pressure on Russia.
Perhaps, after the suffering of the war victims and Ukrainian citizens, the biggest victims of this war are the citizens and especially the low-income classes of Europe. The grain crisis and the food supply chain, along with the fuel crisis, were definitely more effective than cutting off Russia’s access to the SWIFT system. It seems that either the leaders of the European Union and even the United States were not accurate in their calculations in this matter, or Russia knew how to take countermeasures to deal with the sanctions.
The success of any strategy in international politics requires examining and providing appropriate solutions for correction, new planning and more effective implementation. The issue of Europe’s failure to plan and implement effective sanctions against Russia is not an exception to this rule. Maybe Orban who is not very popular in Europe, is right here and this union needs a new strategy, and trying to restore the current strategy is not very helpful.
Anyway, Brussels should come to a conclusion soon, because winter is approaching.