In an interview with the website of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Rahman Ghahremanpour referred to the decision of the Turkish government to normalize relations with Syria and clarified: After the meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Russia in Sochi, news were released about Putin’s request to Erdogan to enter into negotiations with Bashar Assad’s government instead of attacking northern Syria. In addition, Turkey’s internal conditions are as such that since months ago the discussion over Turkey changing policy towards Syria has been raised.
Stating that there are several reasons for the change in Turkey’s policy towards Syria, he pointed to the approaching presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey in 2023 and added: Considering that the Justice and Development Party and Mr. Erdogan have been in power for nearly 20 years, naturally their popularity has decreased, therefore there is a concern among them that they will not be able to win the elections. For this reason, the softening and change of policy towards Syria could have also been caused by this concern.
Political Parties Voice Strong Criticism of Turkish Government’s Policy towards Syria
The expert on international affairs, reminding that about 3 million and 700 thousand Syrian refugees live in Turkey and have imposed a high cost on the country’s economy, said: the social issues caused by the presence of those Syrian refugees in Turkish cities have caused many concerns and sometimes there have been anti-immigration measures and some conflicts. The issue of lodging, education and granting the right of citizenship are serious issues that have been raised in the Turkish society in recent years.
Ghahremanpour continued: Before this, the policy of the Justice and Development Party and the government was to grant citizenship rights to some of those Syrian refugees so that they could participate in the elections. This decision brought severe criticism from the People’s Republic Party as well as other parties.
He pointed to the consequences of the economic crisis, the increase in inflation to over 80 percent and devaluation of lira in Turkey and said: Those issues also made the economic pressure caused by the presence of the refugees in the Turkish society more noticeable, and in addition to the political parties opposing the government, some part of the people should also protest against the negative consequences of the presence of Syrian refugees. Therefore, the Justice and Development Party came to the conclusion that it should reconsider its past policy towards Syria.
Pointing to the Turkish government’s emphasis that it is ready to negotiate with Syria without any preconditions, Ghahremanpour added: The parties opposing the government, especially the People’s Republic Party, are trying to criticize the government’s policy towards Syria during the elections and refer to it as a sign of the ineffectiveness of Erdogan’s party. They have already emphasized that one of the signs for Erdogan’s regional policy being wrong is the failure of Turkey’s foreign policy in Syria.
The expert on international affairs recalled: The Turkish government initially wanted to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s government, but it did not achieve this demand, so now that stabilization conditions and groups opposing Assad have weakened, the Turkish government cannot follow its past policy. As a result, it is slowly trying to correct it by revising its past policy.
Referring to Turkey’s recent attacks on northern Syria, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of a number of Syrian citizens, he pointed out: The main factor in Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria is the “Kurdish” issue. Turkey is extremely worried that with the formation of something like the Kurdistan region of Iraq on the borders of Syria, the PKK will strengthen and the military operations of that group will intensify inside Turkey. This is the most important factor directing Turkey in its foreign policy towards Syria.
Ghahremanpour emphasized: Turkey seeks to increase its influence in Syria in the long term through Brotherhood groups and some other opposition groups, and use it to control the Kurds and increase economic presence in that country.
While explaining the consequences of the normalization of relations between Syria and Turkey, he said: Increase in economic relations between the two countries is of great interest to Turkey, and Turkish companies are already trying to play a role in the reconstruction of Syria. This issue can help Turkey’s economy in the current difficult situation. During the reconstruction period, Syria needs to import goods and services, and due to the long land borders with Turkey, imports from this country are easier.
The international affairs analyst stated that Ankara’s expectation and red line is that the Kurdish issue will be controlled by the Syrian government, and it would be nice for Damascus to be able to contain the Kurdish people’s units with the help of Turkey and bring them under control, adding: Normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria has many consequences and can be effective in stabilizing the political situation in Syria and returning Syria to the international scene.
Ghahremanpour said: Syria wants Turkey to withdraw its military forces from Syria and stop supporting its militias there; on the other hand, Turkey is still following military operations in northern Syria; therefore, the two sides must reach an understanding in the negotiations in this regard.
Regarding the consequences of Turkey-Syria negotiations on the weakening of terrorism in Syria and the region, he stated: Under the current situation, many opposition groups in Syria, the ISIS and al-Nusra have been weakened, if Turkey also reduces its support for opposition groups, Syria will experience more stability. Meanwhile, at the regional level, governments supporting extremist groups in Syria have also abandoned this policy; therefore, it seems that with this process and in case of non-intervention of extra-regional powers, we will witness the weakening of terrorism in the region.