With the inevitable withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, which was a “strategic failure” for that country, the said policy was largely sidelined, but it was never abandoned. It may be thought that the White House has come to terms with the loss of its military presence and influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. But the reality shows something else; the United States is still eyeing this region and using various mechanisms to “revive influence” in Afghanistan and Central Asia with an aim of separating them from Russia and China.

Last year, on the eve of the emergency withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan, Secretary of the State Blinken traveled to the region and met with foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan within the framework of C 5+1, and conveyed the message that Central Asia is still on the foreign policy radar of the Biden administration.

The United States has three specific strategies in Central Asia that it has not retreated from until today: countering China’s growing activities, countering Russia’s continued influence, and trying to isolate Iran regionally.

The United States cannot be indifferent to the presence of Russia, China and Iran in this region, so the most important policy it is currently pursuing in Central Asia is defining a “new military, security and intelligence position” in order to consolidate and stabilize its presence and influence in this area. In this framework, some actions are being carried out, which can be categorized into two parts:

First; due to the fact that the Taliban has dominated Afghanistan and will not allow the resumption of the US military activities in that country for an indefinite period, the White House is aiming to “organize informal intelligence and espionage networks and structures” in Afghanistan. “Making Afghanistan insecure” with an aim of political and security exploitation is on the agenda of the US intelligence agencies. In such a way that it even uses destructive and terrorist tools, including ISIS, to disturb the situation in that country. It should not be forgotten that the US, for 20 years, has been looking at Central Asia through the lens of its military and geopolitical interests in Afghanistan.

Second; “is defining the new sphere of influence in Central Asia”. For this purpose, the United States intends to transfer the ownership of 62 airplanes and helicopters that were transferred to Central Asia by the pilots of the Afghan Air Force after the expulsion of that country from Afghanistan to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Airplanes and helicopters that the US no longer needs due to being worn out and requiring major repairs by American technicians, provide Washington with a “leverage” and, in other words, an “opportunity” in exchange for an informal agreement to “deepen security relations” and fight against terrorism, to provide them to Tashkent and Dushanbe.

Such an agreement could include the expansion of information exchange to the deployment of troops or aircraft in those countries in the long term, which could mean creating a “firm military foothold” in Central Asia. The US knows very well that transformation of Central Asia into an area of ​​influence for any power will bring the control of neighboring countries in the region, which is extremely important in terms of security and military; but the US is facing three serious obstacles in this field:

Firstly, Central Asian countries are not interested in hosting the US bases and military equipment in their countries because of their experience in Afghanistan and their interactions with Russia and China, and due to their avoidance of tension and conflict.

Secondly, Russia and China, as two effective players in the region, which have an outstanding military and economic presence in the countries of Central Asia, especially Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, do not welcome the return of the United States to the region and do not even accept establishment of a small military base in that area.

Thirdly, the United States lacks the tools and capabilities to prove to the countries of the region that have had deep relations with Moscow and Beijing for years that the economic and financial benefits of their military and security cooperation with the United States are greater than its losses.

The US effort and planning to establish a military foothold in Central Asia will definitely have negative consequences. The most important consequence is the “spread of insecurity and instability” in the region. The experiences of the past years show that, with regard to the fact that the US is a “crisis-creating and crisis-living regime” and “hegemony” exists in its essence, therefore, its military and security presence in every corner of the world gradually causes conflict, insecurity and instability in that area. Central Asian countries hosting the US bases and equipment means hosting insecure and crisis-creating trends in the medium and long term.