Hamid Khoshayand, expert on regional issues

The Middle Corridor or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) is a nascent trade network in Central Asia that connects China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Turkey. This corridor is an alternative to the “Northern Corridor” and bypasses Russia.

China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey are the “beneficiary” countries in the Middle Corridor. The Middle Corridor has “strategic benefits,” especially for Turkey because it turns Turkey into a country where the most important transit routes of goods and energy pass through it.

The Zionist regime also has a “positive view” of the Middle Corridor. It evaluates it as an opportunity to establish a connection between the Arab world and Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, with Israel playing a pivotal role. The Zionist regime and some actors competing with Iran in the region look at the Middle Corridor as a lever to weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran in the east-west corridor and neutralize Iran’s geographical capabilities.

Ayoob Kara, the former minister of communications of the Zionist regime, says: As a former Israeli minister, I believe that Israel should be supportive of the establishment of the Middle Corridor, as it will help to strengthen the Abraham Accords if it is expanded to include Israel, the United Arab Emirates and other countries in the region. Thus, if this Middle Corridor is built, we Israelis can also try to connect to it, as it will help counter Tehran by creating a stronger connection between the Turkic republics, Israel, and the Arab world.   We can connect to it via Turkey by ferry, and then, we have another set of trains going from Israel to Jordan and Saudi Arabia and from there to the United Arab Emirates.   In our times, this is within the realm of the possible.

However, the question arises whether the Middle Corridor can be a suitable “alternative” for the Red Sea route.

The Red Sea, connected to the Suez Canal, is one of the busiest and most important shipping lanes in the world. It plays a special role in maintaining the economic and political stability of many countries and is considered the “main artery” of world trade. It is estimated that between 12 and 15 percent of global trade passes through the Red Sea, which accounts for 30 percent of the world’s container shipping traffic.

Compared to the Red Sea, the Middle Corridor consists of 4,250 km of railway lines and 500 km of sea routes. The volume of cargo passing through this route in 2023 increased sixfold compared to 2021 and reached 3 million tons. If the current trade trend in the Middle Corridor continues, the transport volume could increase between 15 and 18 million tons in 2030.

Given that China is one of the main stakeholders in both the Red Sea and the Middle Corridor, in terms of transit time between China and Europe, the Middle Corridor takes 13-21 days, compared to the sea route, with 35-45 days, has a clear advantage.

But in response to whether the Middle Corridor can replace the Red Sea route, several points are important:

1. The Red Sea is an “established” route in world trade. Therefore, although the existing tensions have caused sea container transportation to decrease by almost a third in 2024 compared to the previous year, this is a temporary issue and can never reduce its “strategic importance” in world trade.
2. The Middle Corridor’s capacity is very small compared to the 12% volume of the Red Sea in world trade, even despite the tensions of recent months. The Middle Corridor and other transit routes are not easily able to replace the Red Sea in world trade, even in the long term.
3. The tensions in the Red Sea are intermittent and controlled and will end sooner or later with the end of the Gaza war. Even though, contrary to Western and American propaganda, the Red Sea is “safe” for other countries of the world, except the Zionist regime and the ships that are moving towards the ports of this regime, there is no threat against them.
4. Although in 2022 and 2023, we have seen a significant increase in goods transit, a 33% rise in traffic in 2022, and subsequent investment in the Middle Corridor, but the analyses of international institutions, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation have paid attention to the severe operational “challenges” in the Middle Corridor, which include insufficient capacity, high costs, and an average of more than 50 days of inefficiency of transportation. This is while the uneven roads and the Siberian glaciers, periodic conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the resulting challenges reduce the “attractiveness” of this corridor in the long run.

Therefore, most of the reports published with “double optimism” regarding the Middle Corridor and the increase in its cargo and transportation capacity are not realistic and are more “media noise” than reality in the field.

All the discussions and figures that are published in this regard have not yet reached “tangible results,” and considering the infrastructure problems and obstacles and challenges faced in strengthening the Middle Corridor, including serious bottlenecks in the rail sector and the limited capacity of the Caspian Sea for commercial shipping, it takes a lot of time for this corridor to find its true status. Therefore, despite the current development plans and large investments, the Middle Corridor cannot be completed even in the long term.