In an interview with the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations website about Turkey’s economic plan after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government, Fereydoun Berkeshli stated: Turkey has been seeking to strengthen its geopolitical and geographical position for years, but how it defines its position today with the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria will certainly present new opportunities and possibly challenges to Turkey. Of course, any scenario will be influenced by the future conditions of Syria. Certainly, 2025 will be decisive for this country and its future because governments and companies do not make investment decisions in conditions of tension and instability.

This senior energy expert stated that Turkey has a privileged geographical position. Still, this position could turn Turkey into an energy hub after the developments in Syria, or at least, Turkish leaders see themselves as such. Syria is in a region that connects the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe, which is favorable for Europe because it reduces their dependence on Russian gas. If this happens, the US LNG market in Europe will definitely suffer.

He continued: But the US will not be Turkey’s only challenge in becoming the regional gas hub and transferring it to Europe. Cyprus, Greece, Egypt, and the Israeli regime also have a 25-year gas contract, of which 18 years are still left. Greece and the Greek part of Cyprus are opposed to any expansion of Turkey’s influence in the corridor to Europe. Greece is a member of the European Union and necessarily has the support of the Union and will definitely react in this regard.

This senior energy expert, raising the question of how and where the gas Turkey is seeking will be supplied, stated: “When we look at the region, there is practically no significant gas. More than 60 percent of Qatar’s gas is exported in the form of LNG. The rest of the country’s gas is exported through pipelines to Oman and the UAE. Saudi Arabia also wants to buy gas from Qatar.”

Stating that Turkey is, of course, looking for a gas transport corridor through the Caspian Sea, Berkeshli said: “Based on this project, the transport of Azerbaijani, Turkmen, and Kazakh gas from the bottom of the Caspian Sea to Turkey, Syria, the Mediterranean or Europe is under consideration. But here, the old and deeply worrying discussion of Turkey’s Pan-Turkism project comes up, which has important staunch opponents such as Russia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Armenia, and China. At the same time, transporting gas through such a long land and sea route is costly. In addition, Turkey does not have significant facilities to enter into such a project.”

Regarding Turkey’s problems in becoming the regional energy center after Assad, he stated: There are a total of 14 million Kurds in the southern and eastern Anatolia region. However, international statistics state that the Kurdish population in Turkey is 20 million. In order to reach the oil-rich regions of Syria, Turkey is forced to control the Kurdish-populated areas of Syria, which is very challenging for Turkey. This senior expert on energy issues said about the views of the countries in the region, especially the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf, on Turkey’s economic plan for regional energy: From the perspective of the countries in the Persian Gulf region, this issue has other differences and boundaries. In the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East, governments have been formed based on three different and perhaps contradictory understandings of Islam: the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafis, and the Wahhabis. Of course, each of the above branches has numerous sub-branches extending to Afghanistan and Pakistan today. The current Turkish government mainly has Muslim Brotherhood tendencies. Therefore, it has close relations with Qatar. Qatar, with its high financial capacity, is a supporter of Turkey, but other countries, while maintaining good relations, do not have a positive opinion of Turkey’s excesses.

Regarding Iran’s view of Turkey’s approach to the new developments in the region, he stated: The Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq, which are historical countries in the region, are seriously opposed to any expansionist policy. It is obvious that these two countries are concerned about the possibility of expanding Turkey’s sphere of influence in Syria and the region. This concern is greater in Iraq due to the Kurdish population in the Erbil region.

In response to the question of how Turkey’s development policy will progress, especially in the fields of economy and energy, if stability is established in Syria, Berkeshli said: It is evident that the mere stability of Syria does not provide Turkey with energy advantages. Stability is the prerequisite and essential principle for achieving the goals for which Turkey has special expectations. Perhaps Iran and Turkey can cooperate in Syria in various fields. Iran has a well-known and proven capability in the construction of land and sea pipelines, petrochemical complexes, refineries, and terminals that can be used to rebuild Syria using financial resources from Qatar and other countries. Turkey is in dire need of Iranian technology. Projects of the importance and magnitude of energy centralization and the transfer of enormous oil and gas resources over long distances by land and sea require precise project definition, stability, and long-term security.

The senior energy expert noted that the Middle East has only two decades to break free from the cycle of backwardness. If international investors are confident in the region’s long-term stability and security, capital and technology will follow.

He emphasized that in the next decade, the importance of energy will shift from gas hubs to electricity hubs, and countries will prefer to transit electricity. Electricity is generated from gas consumption in power plants or electricity from renewable energies. In fact, the continuation of industrial civilization in the coming decades will shift from oil and gas to electricity.

In any case, the battle for international strategic corridors and waterways is undoubtedly one of the main geopolitical and geoeconomic phenomena of the coming years, and its main key will be struck in 2025-2026.

Berkeshli said that the Turkish government’s claims regarding the Middle East and Near East corridors indicate the increasing importance of international and regional transit corridors.

Stating that Iran’s economy should join the club of one trillion dollar economies, this senior energy expert noted that Iran’s economy has a short opportunity to join the group of economies with a GDP of more than one trillion dollars, and this can be made possible by realizing the resistance economy.

He added: In the coming years, geoeconomy will be understood in combination with geopolitics. In other words, geoeconomy will guarantee the regional advantage of the Islamic Republic of Iran. As much as Iran is known as an economic player in South America, it has a very weak presence in the Middle East with all its extensive economic capacities. The current situation is an opportunity to redefine Iran’s brand as a country with economic capabilities that must be used best.