Vahid Ghorbani – Ph.D. in International Relations and China Affairs Expert

1. China and Soft Hegemony in the International Economy
   By focusing on financial, technological, and institutional tools rather than direct confrontation with the West, China is creating a soft hegemony. Its developmental initiatives provide the economic foundations for transitioning from the West-centric order. Reducing the dependency of SCO members on US-dominated structures and presenting a model of multilateral development for the Global South are important parts of China’s strategy. However, the sensitivity of some members towards economic dependency and pressure from the US and Europe reveals the practical limitations of this approach.
2. The Eastern Alliance: Opportunities and Limitations
   The Shanghai Eastern coalition comprises diverse national and geopolitical objectives: Russia seeks to mitigate the impact of sanctions, India pursues strategic independence, and Central Asian countries aim to attract capital and implement infrastructure projects. This diversity hinders full cohesion but offers a strategic advantage for China, as it brings geopolitical competitors together within a cooperative framework. The Tianjin summit demonstrated that the East is creating a flexible network of cooperation instead of a unified bloc, which could gradually replace West-centric institutions in the fields of finance, energy, and security, at least among members. Tangible examples include Eurasian transit projects, the Shanghai Development Bank, and energy trade in local currency.
3. Iran After the 12-Day War: Opportunities and Challenges
   Following the recent war with the Israeli regime and the activation of European pressures and the threat of Snapback’s return, Iran is in a special situation within the multipolar order. Iran’s full membership in the SCO in 2023 is a symbolic achievement that has provided political breathing space and diplomatic room for maneuver. This membership offers an alternative path in international political economy, but its actual utilization requires bilateral initiatives with members and the alignment of Iran’s economic policies with multilateral rules. For example, what Iran expects from emerging financial mechanisms like the Shanghai Development Bank within these arrangements is entirely different from what the core and driving members seek, and perhaps the necessary benefits from it (like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) will not be available for our country under the conditions of the sanctioned international economic environment.

Conclusion and Proposed Strategy
Recent developments in the SCO indicate that the global order is being reconfigured, and Eastern actors, particularly China and Russia, are establishing parallel arrangements to foster independent economic cooperation. The development of non-dollar financial infrastructures, joint energy projects, and Eurasian transit networks provides a flexible framework, preventing the complete concentration of power. In this space, Iran, as a new and sensitive member after the war with the Israeli regime, can play an active role by developing bilateral initiatives.

The multipolarization of the global order, contrary to common perception, is a gradual and complex process that creates both opportunities and risks. These opportunities include reducing dependency on Western structures and increasing regional influence, while the risks include countries that fail to align their economic and financial policies with international standards and Eastern tools. Therefore, while leveraging Eastern capacities, Iran must design an internal and strategic framework compatible with them so that membership in the SCO translates into tangible economic and political effects.