Mohammad Khajui – Researcher on Lebanese Issues

This is in a situation where a ceasefire agreement was reached between the Israeli regime and Lebanon on November 27, after the bloody war that was going on between the two sides. However, this ceasefire agreement has not been fully implemented; in a way that the Israeli regime was supposed to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon after two months, but this did not happen, and the regime’s forces are currently stationed in 5 locations in southern Lebanon.

On the other hand, the Israeli regime has carried out numerous attacks on various spots in Lebanon during this period, with the justification that the  Hezbollah weapons were stored in these areas. The Israeli regime has also assassinated individuals it claimed were among Hezbollah’s effective forces and commanders. Three of these attacks took place after the ceasefire agreement in the southern suburbs of Beirut, or the suburbs, where Hezbollah’s base is also located. It seems that the Israeli regime is pursuing three specific goals with these attacks:

The first goal is to maintain and stabilize the new security equation that was formed after the recent war and resulted from the blows that the Hezbollah suffered.

The Israeli regime is trying to consolidate and impose its upper hand in terms of security in this region and to have freedom of action in targeting whatever it deems appropriate. This freedom of action by the Israeli regime in security measures, assassinations, and attacks is the same new security equation that has been formed in this region and which the regime is seeking to stabilize.

The second goal is to prevent the  Hezbollah from restoring its power and to ensure stable conditions that would allow the Hezbollah to regain control. These numerous attacks could challenge Hezbollah on its path to restoring power.

The third goal is to pressure the Lebanese government to advance the project of complete disarmament of Hezbollah. The recent war, despite weakening Hezbollah, did not lead to the Israeli regime’s grand goal of completely disarming Hezbollah. Since then, the Israeli regime, with its attacks on Lebanon on the one hand and US political pressure on the Lebanese government on the other, has been seeking to bring the situation to a point where the Hezbollah is completely disarmed, in other words, the incomplete half-finished project that has been carried out so far is fully implemented.

It seems that these conditions will continue, but if this strategy of “death by a thousand stabs,” numerous attacks, assassinations and political pressure cannot bring the Hezbollah to a point where it is completely disarmed, there is a possibility of another war between the Israeli regime and Lebanon with the green light of the US. Today, the US has completely given the Israeli regime a free hand in the matter of national security. Similarly, Washington is not currently taking any action to prevent the Israeli regime’s actions in Lebanon, and there is even a possibility that the regime will intensify its actions in the future to achieve its grand project of disarming Hezbollah.

However, regarding the options facing Lebanon, the reality of the matter is that the Lebanese government is not capable of exerting pressure on the Israeli regime in the current situation, and only from time to time do the Lebanese president or prime minister make political and media protests, and ultimately ask the United States and France, as the two parties observing the ceasefire agreement, to ask the Israeli regime to stop its attacks on Lebanon.

Also, the Lebanese army, which has been deployed alongside UN forces in the areas from which Hezbollah has withdrawn, has not taken any action as a deterrent to stop the Israeli regime from its attacks. This is in a situation where Hezbollah has not taken any action against the Israeli regime after the ceasefire agreement and has effectively dropped the ball in the government’s court.

In other words, the Lebanese government, which today emphasizes that the monopoly of weapons should be in the hands of the government, has faced a situation in which the responsibility for providing security has also fallen on its shoulders.

In the meantime, when the government’s inability to provide security is proven, Hezbollah’s logic on the necessity for the Resistance to possess weapons becomes clearer than ever. In other words, the Hezbollah has not taken any provocative action during this period so as not to give the other side an excuse; but we are witnessing that in these circumstances, the Lebanese government and the army have not been able to provide security, and this has created a complex situation. A historical look at the developments in Lebanon and its confrontation with the Israeli regime shows that in a situation where the government is not able to provide security, it ultimately seems that it is the ability of the Resistance that can act as a factor in saving the country and confronting the attacks of the Israeli regime and the occupation.