The Plan to Disarm Hezbollah and the Future of Lebanon

Online Strategic Council - Interview: The former Director-General of the Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: The U.S. plan to disarm Lebanon's Hezbollah, based on Resolution 1701 issued in 2006, is not a new issue, but its timing, coinciding with the Gaza War, which started in October 2023, has placed it in a different context. This is because, simultaneously with the Gaza War, Syria underwent extensive developments, and Lebanon, which had entered the Gaza War through Hezbollah, suddenly signed a ceasefire agreement with the Israeli regime.

Qassem Mobaleghli, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “After the ceasefire, the Lebanese government concluded an understanding with the U.S. and the Israeli regime, one of the important provisions of which was the full acceptance of Resolution 1701. In fact, one of the important conditions of the ceasefire was the disarmament of all paramilitary groups in Lebanon, specifically Hezbollah, so that weapons would only be in the hands of the Lebanese government.”

He continued: “The issue of disarming Lebanon’s Hezbollah is not merely an internal matter; it has taken on international dimensions, and resolutions have been issued in this regard. However, the reality is that the main reason and root of the United States’ serious support and emphasis on disarming Lebanon’s Hezbollah is to ensure the security of the Zionist regime. Of course, the new Lebanese government also came to power with the claim that it would fully implement Resolution 1701.”

Referring to the recent positions and statements of Lebanese government officials regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, Mobaleghli added: “Lebanese government officials have explicitly stated that they seek to fully and detailedly implement Resolution 1701, and this indicates that the Lebanese government is pursuing the complete disarmament of Hezbollah—a resolution that was not implemented in the past but is now on the agenda of the new Lebanese government. All these events show that the main goal is nothing but ensuring the security of the Israeli regime, and apparently, without the disarmament of Hezbollah, the parties will not reach a real peace agreement.”

The former Director-General of the Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs continued: “This is while the then Lebanese government had made peace with the Israeli regime in 1948 and reached an agreement on border demarcation, and later in 2006, another resolution was issued in this regard. Today, the Lebanese government is also trying to pursue the issue of peace with the Israeli regime based on the approach of disarming Hezbollah. While the central government of Lebanon has not waged any war against the Israeli regime over these years, today the implementation of full peace is conditional on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the implementation of Resolution 1701.”

Referring to the risks of civil war in Lebanon, he stated: “The Lebanese government still acts cautiously towards Hezbollah and tries to prevent a potential civil war as much as possible because if in the past these differences and tensions occurred between Muslim and Christian tribes and groups, this time a civil war would occur between Hezbollah and its domestic supporters and allies on one side, and the Lebanese army and government, which is supported by the West, on the other.”

Mobaleghli continued: “There is also the possibility that in the event of a civil war, the Israeli regime would exploit the situation and, by potentially entering the war, expand its dimensions and scope. Therefore, the Lebanese government and Hezbollah must be careful and act cautiously.”

Referring to the performance of the new Lebanese government, the former Director-General of the Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “Government officials are primarily seeking to flaunt and consolidate their power by disarming Hezbollah. Thus, they aim to ensure that Hezbollah does not retain its former power domestically and internationally.”

In conclusion, he emphasized that Lebanon is currently in a complex situation because opponents of disarmament believe that implementing Resolution 1701 will give the Israeli regime a freer hand to carry out airstrikes on Beirut, and this could pave the way for potential future events. Meanwhile, supporters of disarming Hezbollah emphasize that the U.S., pursuant to the memorandum of understanding and issued resolutions, must guarantee Lebanon’s security in the future. In any case, to prevent the potential outbreak of war and internal tensions, all parties must consider all aspects, make decisions, and take actions cautiously.

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