In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Ata Bahrami pointed to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast on China’s GDP growth despite the decline in the world GDP and said: The economic growth that the Chinese can obtain in spite of all the consequences of the Corona pandemic in the world, can be examined in view of the differences in the political systems of China and the West. What the Chinese can do and the Westerns cannot, is rooted in their political system.

Saying that China’s political system is a one-party, rigid system, and by imposing social costs on the people can return to macroeconomic growth very quickly, he added: Western economies cannot do that because the cost of social security in the West, although has diminished compared to the past and moved towards liberalization, still it is very high while the Chinese do not make these commitments to their people.

The international economics analyst noted that the Coronavirus outbreak and its consequences had imposed heavy costs on the economy of countries to the extent that 2020 has become the worst year the global economy has experienced since the 1930s and the time of the Great Depression in the world. Western countries compensate for the economic costs of the Corona by printing banknotes, but China has not done so and accepted unemployment, because it does not commit itself to compensate the people for such losses, but in return, it has the agility to reduce its economic growth gap with other countries.

Bahrami further remarked: The weakening of the yuan has also been very effective in this regard and has maintained competitiveness, even against the US, which imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods. Because of this, the Chinese can return to the growth much faster.

Prolongation  of Corona Consequences in Western Economies

The expert on economic-political affairs reiterated that although consequences of the Corona pandemic will last at least for the next two years and that economic growth of Western countries will not recover so quickly, said: Many of the companies that were on the verge of bankruptcy went bankrupt, and in practice would resume their activities with some support. The consequences of the Corona in Western economies are very wide and it seems unlikely that they will be able to recover even in the next two years because the Corona is not over yet and they might be affected by the consequences of this epidemic for several years.

Regarding the consequences of the positive growth of China’s economy in a situation under which the world economy is in trouble caused by the Corona, he said: China will become the world’s largest economy in terms of volume next year. Although the US considers itself superior in terms of quality, China is ahead of the US in terms of GDP and this is a very heavy challenge for the US. Because they were the world’s first economy for about 80 years and now they are losing that position.

Bahrami, while pointing to the economic challenges of the US officials for overtaking China, also described its political dimensions as numerous and explained: In this situation, some US satellites are also turning towards China, and therefore new developments have taken place in the global political weighing. Whereas the policy pursued by the Chinese in recent years through which they easily veto resolutions and do not fear the Americans is rooted in this economic backing, which has been complemented with its large population and nuclear power.

Referring to the escalation of tensions between China and the US, and the US efforts to slow down China’s growth, he added: In fact, a new line has been formed in the international arena and China has practically given up its policy of silence in its foreign policy. The Americans have also realized that continuing this trend means the downfall of the US and want to prevent it. That’s why they created an arms race to stop China from growing so that China would spend money on arms production.

Bahrami continued: But through strengthening the Shanghai Cooperation Organization the Chinese tried to create a bloc against NATO. In the Middle East, too, they are seeking to line up against the US. In fact, the Chinese have come to the conclusion that they must either disintegrate or compete. The US policy towards the Uyghurs shows that they are fully interested in the disintegration of China and want to put the Tibetans and Uyghurs against the central government.

Effects of China-US Macro-Competition on World Economy and Politics

The politics-economics expert said that the US seeks to create regional competition between India and China by withdrawing its investments from China and directing them to India, and the Chinese are aware of this. Naturally, the macro competition of China and the US will affect economies of all countries and political coalitions. As we see, Pakistan is trying to move towards China and the Indians have completely turned to the US. China and Russia, on the other hand, have formed an alliance.

He stressed that in the future of the world political-economic system, we will be witness to a new Cold War that is not ideological like the Communist and Capitalist era; but has a complete security basis, and a new East and West are forming against each other. This process has been fully formed and launched, but how long it will take is unpredictable. The Cold War lasted seventy years, and we are still in that process.