Reza Majidzadeh – researcher in the field of economics

After World War II, antimony was a key element in making tungsten steel and hardening lead bullets. Today, it is used in armor-piercing munitions, night vision goggles, and the like.

Due to the wide military and industrial applications of this element, concerns have arisen in the world, so in response to this export restriction, companies such as Perpetua Resources, which only have domestic reserves of this element, are trying to With support from the Pentagon and the Export-Import Bank of the United States, explore ways to accelerate antimony production in the United States. The company is developing its projects in Idaho, USA. The country has not mined antimony since the Sunshine Mine in Idaho was closed in 2001. Still, it currently supplies 18% of its demand for semimetal through the recycling of lead-acid batteries, with the rest going to China (63 percent) and relying on other countries such as Belgium and India.

Now, the important question is, what approach and strategy does China follow regarding pseudo-metals? China is the world’s largest antimony producer, followed by Russia, Tajikistan, and Bolivia. The military tensions between Russia and Ukraine on the one hand, and the escalation of tensions in the Middle East as well as the continuation of the Gaza war on the other hand, have increased the pressure on the antimony supply chain, as it increases the demand for ammunition and defense technologies. In this situation, the sale of US military equipment to other countries has grown by 16% in 2023. This situation means the American military industry is highly benefitted from the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East, which threaten China’s expansionism in the New Silk Road project and the “Made in China 2025” grand strategy. In other words, China benefits from the conditions of world countries avoiding direct tension. Still, the benefit of the United States and some large arms companies depends on the development of war in different regions, establishing a crisis order that creates permanent and ongoing tension. It turns into a beneficial platform for the parties of crisis and tension. This is why China’s antimony export restriction policy should be considered in line with its trade war with the United States.

China’s trade war with the United States began during Trump’s presidency, and his goal was to counter the “Made in China 2025” grand strategy. Later, the scope of the trade war between the two countries expanded to include competition in corridors and the connection of Eurasian countries to key corridors for transferring resources and goods.

However, China’s main strategy in the area of semi-metals and key minerals is to limit trade in these items, which leaves the United States in a position of mineral supply shortage. The continuation of the supply of antimony based on the previous process means that China indirectly contributes to the development of war in strategic areas on the way to the development of the Silk Road (the proximity of Russia and Ukraine and the war in Gaza) and the extension of the duration of these wars means more cost and risk for the development of networking. China is on the way to connecting East and West and trade corridors. The scope of these risks and threats has expanded to such an extent that it also includes Taiwan and the cold confrontation between China and America has also been extended to this region.

However, a more important point also turns China’s current strategy regarding pseudo-metals into a preemptive trade war. Despite the close results of Harris and Trump in the US election polls, it seems that strategists have given more weight to Trump’s win. From this point of view, it can be said that China is playing firsthand so as not to repeat the experience of the trade war of 2015 and 2016 by Trump, and this time, it is China who takes the initiative. During the US-China trade wars, Beijing changed its strategies from a direct trade war (tariffs) to currency war strategies and non-American networking such as BRICS and Shanghai, linking the countries of the New Silk Road and developing clean energy projects in the countries along this road and development of economic presence, even for oil extraction in Afghanistan. Although China entered into a trade war with the European Union to maintain its dominant position and opened new fronts for a trade war with the European Union in areas such as electric cars and wind energy, it seems that China’s current focus is to gain a superior position before at Trump finds his way to the White House for a seconds time.