U.S. Economic Recession and Its Global Repercussions
Dr. Saman Nikpay, in an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations’ website, stated: “The U.S. economic recession has implications beyond its domestic borders due to the central role of the dollar and the country’s position in the global supply chain.” He explained: “When the unemployment rate rises in the U.S. and industrial production declines, this not only shocks financial markets but also global trade. In such an environment, investors quickly withdraw from risky assets and move toward gold, the dollar, and bonds. This capital shift leads to a decline in emerging markets and a reduction in international trade volume.”
This expert emphasized that “countries dependent on exporting raw materials and U.S. industrial goods will be the first victims of this trend; China, some oil-rich Persian Gulf countries, and even European industrial economies are among the actors whose economic growth could be severely slowed by a recession in U.S. demand. Under these conditions, not only will global inflation intensify, but competition to attract floating capital in financial markets will also increase.”

Shifting Geopolitical Balances to Serve Economic Goals
According to Nikpay, “The Trump administration is attempting to curb domestic pressures by altering geopolitical balances; the recent threat to Europe following the fines imposed on Google sent a clear message that Washington is prepared to use geopolitical tools and even trade threats to gain economic concessions. Trump believes that by creating controlled crises in foreign relations, he can both divert domestic public opinion from economic problems and extract financial and trade concessions from competitors and partners.”
This U.S. affairs analyst believes that “such an approach has dual consequences: in the short term, it may yield some trade concessions for Washington, but in the long term, it increases distrust among America’s traditional partners. Europe, China, and even some regional governments are now seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar and the U.S. financial system—a trend that, if accelerated, could challenge the economic and geopolitical position of the United States.”

Strategic Consequences for the Global Economy
In response to the question of what impact this trend will have on the global economy, Nikpay explained: “If the U.S. fails to curb its domestic recession and continues to exert geopolitical pressure on Europe and East Asia, the global economy will face greater fragmentation. The formation of trade blocs independent of the U.S. will accelerate, and this could lead to a weakening of the dollar-based economic system.”
The U.S. affairs analyst added: “In reality, Trump aims to distribute the costs of the recession through aggressive foreign policies, but the main danger is that this trend could globalize the recession and create a negative cycle in trade and investment. Such a cycle would be particularly costly for developing economies, as these countries would face both declining demand in global markets and a reduction in foreign investment.”
This analyst warned: “If the Trump administration fails to balance its domestic economic policies with its geopolitical goals, the world will witness a new phase of economic instability—a phase that not only deepens the recession but could also alter the balance of power in the international system.”