Dr. Mahmoud Dehghan in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations referred to the recent tensions between Poland and the EU, commented on the Yes vote of Poland during the voting session of the EU on Brexit as an indication of the willing of the country to exit the EU and noted that:” Poland is not a developed country and the presence of such countries in the EU was aimed at benefitting from the advantages of their membership”.

Having referred to the problems of Poland in connection with migrants’ crisis, he added:” the strong European countries used to allocate a quota in such cases. They sent all migrants to satellite countries of the European Union, and in a way they created so-called grade 1 and grade 2 Europe! Europe grade 1 does not accept any migrant except the selected ones; And Europe grade 2 that accepts the majority of unskilled migrants along with their families. Therefore, after practicing this policy the economic and unemployment crisis of these countries intensified”.

The university professor noted:” countries like Poland where there is no strong government and internal flourished economy, had to close their borders and prioritize their internal regulations over those of the European Union. The disputes expanded gradually. Based on some analyses, it seems as these challenges go on, we will witness either expelling or voluntarily exiting of Poland from the Union”.

Having said that countries like Poland have not enjoyed the promises that strong countries of the European Union pledged in order to accede them into the Union, he continued:” Poland did not manage to be benefitted from the special aids of the European Union during economic crises. Now, Paris has warned Warsaw that she will suffer from “de facto exit” of the European Union if she continues to challenge it! the warning that has Germany’s support too”.

End of Honey Moon of Peripheral Countries of Europe with the EU

Having referred to the economic-political condition of Poland, her concerns about Russian policies, and also threats and pressures of the EU on those countries willing to leave it, spelled out:” It seems that the honey moon of the statesmen of the peripheral countries of Europe to the EU has come to an end. We witness that the EU has stepped in the same route as the U.S. did. In fact, the U.S. has turned into a country with five strong states in the center and many peripheral states that serve the center. The Soviet Union had organized the same system, whenever she deemed necessary she used to untie the rope and release them”.

Poland Sees Herself Inevitable to Change Nature

The international analyst added:” countries like Poland and Hungry assess the EU regulations as despotic and they know well if they are going to stay with the EU they have to make changes in their political systems and thus they have to change qualitatively”.

He added:” While the membership in the EU did not considerably help them as they expected; we witnessed a devastating flood that took place in Poland and left scores of deaths, but Europe neither extended them with economic aids nor physical assistance even”.

Dehghan said numerous crises proved the satellite countries of the EU that if they want to stay in the European Union they will have to face dual challenges. He continued:” Great Britain did not have economic problem with exiting the EU, but cultural and political ones. The country that used to be the first Empire, had turned to the fifth power in the European Union; however her exit will not cause any change either; because now it is GNP that talks first in the world”.

The university professor added:” at present situation of her presence in the EU, Poland intends to connect herself to those countries with veto right. In the meantime, she also tries to be benefitted from Germany’s financial aids, but Germany has never accorded with her assistances to Poland like those offered to Italy. Poland knows well that she is considered as a grade 2 member at the European Union”.

Dehghan underscored:” although in a certain juncture, some countries were rapidly acceded to and became members of the EU, but ultimately only those countries can remain in the EU that have effective role and meaningful presence, as well as to be economically, politically, socially and culturally homogenous, other countries will automatically be either deleted or will play no role in long term”.

Having referred to the positions of different Polish statesmen on the membership in the EU, and the demonstrations of Polish people to support the continuation of her membership, the expert on international affairs elaborated the challenges ahead of the country in case of exiting the EU and said:” as we witnessed with regard to England, the majority of those who voted for Brexit were elders who felt their British proud had tarnished. The youth voted mostly for non-exit and they were not aware of the crises they would face as now they are facing with its consequences. In Poland too, the youth and the majority of people are in favor of maintaining their links with European Union.

He continued:” The EU and its central core try to attract the peripheral countries through the youth but the governments struggle to preserve the nature of their systems, and to prioritize their internal regulations as well as their economic links”.

The university professor referred to the challenges that have been created for Poland by Russia, and added that we witness that Russia is doing the same along her borders with Poland as she did with Ukraine. Step by step Russia is paving the ground as she did to Ukraine, when she imposed chastisement against Ukraine with accession of Crimea Islands and Europe did nothing but to impose temporary sanctions against Russia. The peripheral countries to the EU are observing these risks.

In the meantime, Dehghan referred to the emphasis of Poland Prime Minister who said the country was willing to continue her presence in the EU and make effort to control the situation through crisis management with the EU. Dehghan said:” despite all these issues, if the Polish government wishes to insist on exiting the EU, it will face tough and internal extensive riots of the youth who play a pivotal role”.