Morteza Makki – Researcher of European issues

Polls showed that Marine Le Pen’s National Community Party would win an unexpected victory. French President Emmanuel Macron hoped that the voters would choose the moderates from among the extreme right, leftists, and moderates. However, unlike the previous elections, the votes of the National Assembly Party were no longer negative votes.

In previous periods, the French people showed concern about the performance of the ruling parties by voting for the candidates of far-right parties, and usually, in the second phase of the elections, the results were different, and moderate parties won more votes. This is even though such a scenario did not occur during the French parliamentary elections. One of the reasons for the dissolution was the same scenario. He thought the French people were looking to show their dissatisfaction with the ruling party t in the European parliamentary elections, and the chances of victory of Marine Le Pen’s National Assembly party would decrease in the early parliamentary elections. Now, according to the results of the European Parliament elections, it is said that Mrs. Le Pen’s National Assembly Party will win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat chamber. The second phase of the French parliamentary elections is very sensitive and important.

France is divided into 577 regions, each with one candidate in the parliament. The center-left parties and the coalition of centrists supporting Macron have announced that if their candidate is in third place, they will withdraw in favor of the Center-Left Front, and the Center-Left Front has also chosen such an option and announced that in any area where their candidate is in the third place. If he is ranked third, he will resign in favor of the candidate of the moderate coalition.

For this reason, predicting the second round of French parliamentary elections has become very complicated and challenging. Still, there is no doubt that Marine Le Pen’s National Assembly Party will hold the parliamentary majority. One of the reasons for the tendency of the French people to the extreme party of the National Community is economic issues and the situation of immigrants in France. After Russia attacked Ukraine and the price of energy carriers increased, France’s economic growth almost stopped, inflation increased, and people’s purchasing power decreased. This greatly impacted Emmanuel Macron’s position among the French people. Another issue is immigration. In recent years, we have witnessed a wave of massive migrations from North Africa and the Middle East toward Europe. European countries on the Mediterranean coast included the most destinations for immigrants. Maybe after Italy and Greece, France and Spain have been the most receptive to immigrants. One of the main axes of the propaganda programs of the far-right National Assembly party has been to change the immigration policy in France. A policy that, if the French rightists can take power in the parliament and the government, they will create a serious challenge to the common migration policy of the European Union.

In the domestic arena, coexistence between citizens of French origin and citizens with immigrant and non-French roots will face more challenges and problems. The suburbs of France’s big cities consist mainly of Africa and Asia, and the economic and racial divides are now creating a tense situation in this region.

It has created France’s borders. The intensification of anti-immigration policies will increase social and political tensions in French society and challenge the multicultural policy of France and other European countries.