Esmaeil Bashari – Analyst on the issues of the Korean Peninsula

The United States complains that North Korea has taken only tiny and insignificant steps towards nuclear disarmament. On the other hand, Pyongyang believes that it may have taken only a few measures, but the US has not taken any steps to lift parts of the sanctions. They grumble that Washington subordinates the lifting of the sanctions to the full nuclear disarmament of the Korean Peninsula.

As part of the deal, North Korea has so far delivered the bodies of those killed during the Korean war, demolished a rocket launch vehicle and destroyed a nuclear testing facility. There are speculations about the truthfulness of the measures carried out by North Korea. Nevertheless, Pyongyang invited journalists and cameramen for media coverage of its commitments. In contrast, the United States has not taken significant steps towards implementation of its commitments to North Korea. Washington merely stated that the Korean Peninsula is moving toward peace. Also, Trump promised the North Korean leader that the US would provide aids to improve North Korea’s present situation as compared to the past, but apparently no action was taken by him.

In general, the talks were frozen due to such reasons and ended up in the cancellation of the trip to North Korea by the US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

However, negotiations between the two Koreas are ongoing, albeit slowly. Also, some developments are taking place between North Korea and Japan, and the two parties have consulted on some agreements. Therefore, the White House is the only party that has stopped negotiations with Pyongyang and is waiting for North Korea’s reaction.

Despite inconsistencies, the situation is not such that the United States and North Korea would go back to square one and leave the negotiations altogether. Presently, they are still evaluating what concessions they can get from the opposite side. The franchises that North Korea wants to give to the United States is very different from those of the opposite side, therefore no substantial activity is seen from the Korean side.

Prospect of future talks

Regarding the prospect of future talks, there is an impression that the North Korean side would like to break the deadlock so that the negotiations would be continued. In other words, tolerating all-out sanctions and isolation from most world countries have made the situation intolerable for them. On the other hand, the violation of these sanctions could have resulted in a situation that would be difficult for many countries. Namely, even China, a close ally of North Korea, has been trying to comply with a significant part of these sanctions.

Hence, walking on the same road is so troublesome for North Korea that Pyongyang prefers to resume the negotiation with the United States. But at the same time, Pyongyang does not want to lose all the cards that have in hand without achieving concessions from the opposite side. So, it is most likely that the two countries will reignite the talks either directly or through intermediaries.

Another issue that could impact the situation is the economic tension between China and the United States. Washington has grudges that Beijing alleviated its pressure on Pyongyang and does not attempt to persuade its neighboring country to continue the negotiations the way the United States wishes. China, in every circumstance, is willing to have a neighboring Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons. However, China does not wish to witness the collapse of North Korea’s regime and risk a US-allied replacement.  The reality is that North Korea has strategic significance for China, and Beijing is in no way willing to act in such a way to lose North Korea.