Speaking to the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Omid Rahimi pointed out the reasons for the recent conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which led to the deaths of more than 100 people, like many other geopolitical issues of the Central Asian region, should be sought in the Soviet era when the ethnic demarcations of the republics of the region were formed from the 1920s to the 1930s, and the specific ethnic policies of the Communist Party strongly influenced these demarcations.

He added that in these countries, ethnic minorities from neighboring republics were present and power distribution arrangements were formed in a way that created ethnic, tribal and sometimes local supremacy. The root of the differences between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which continued during the years after independence, was also these policies.

This analyst of Central Asian issues called border marking an important factor in recent conflicts and said that although three decades have passed since the independence of these two republics, about 500 kilometers of the borders of the two countries have not been marked. The occurrence of border conflicts is also generally due to the ambiguity in this field as well as the interactions of the people living in the border villages in the fields of pastures, agriculture and the use of water resources. The most frequent scenario in this field has usually been the violation of a number of residents for daily affairs, the shooting of border guards on the other side, and the escalation of conflicts.

He continued that however, it should not be forgotten that the reproduction of these differences in the space of social networks has turned into a tension and, in fact, an inter-ethnic conflict between Tajiks and Kyrgyz, and this issue creates problems for the ethnic minorities of the two countries. This issue is especially aggravated by the tendencies of ethnic nationalism in one of the two countries.

Rahimi mentioned the special situation of the “Varukh” region as another issue that is important for the issue of borders and the occurrence of conflicts and explained “this region, which is a part of the territory of Tajikistan, is somehow located in the territory of Kyrgyzstan, which has no territorial connection with Tajikistan. To travel to this city, Tajiks must pass through a part of the territory of Kyrgyzstan known as the “Agh Sai” corridor. This issue has caused problems due to the claims of both sides regarding each of the territory used by the other side and also the issue of historical issues in the former Soviet period, especially the movements related to traffic to Warukh and vice versa”.

This expert on Central Asian issues stated that the sustainable solution of these disputes is primarily the use of political tools and compliance with the principles of good neighborliness to solve the problem, and said “Before this, the country of Uzbekistan also had similar border disputes with both Kyrgyzstan and It was Tajikistan. However, during the last five years and with the neighborhood policy of this country during the presidency of Shaukat Mirzayev, this problem has been almost solved and we have not seen such conflicts.”

Emphasizing that the political conditions related to stability, efficiency and transparency in both the republics of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have prevented the realization of this process, he added that providing financial resources and support to the joint border commissions of the two countries to mark the borders as soon as possible is another important action to prevent the recurrence of these disputes. Naturally, this issue will not be resolved until the assignment of pastures, agricultural lands, water resources and rivers and other resources in the points of border disputes are precisely determined so that the border forces can deal with high sensitivity to any movements in the points of dispute.

Stating that there is no connection between this conflict and other issues in the former Soviet Union such as the differences between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the war in Ukraine, Rahimi noted that the issue of border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is thirty years old and is not a new issue. The intensification of these conflicts every time, which has become much more sensitive especially since the military conflict of April 2020, is also a result of the internal developments of these countries.

According to this expert on Central Asian issues, factors such as the intensification of the degree of nationalism in Kyrgyzstan and the tightening of conditions in Tajikistan, as well as the power relations between political currents cannot be ignored in both countries. However, the role of foreign actors is also worth mentioning. Among other things, Turkey caused some concerns on the Tajik side by delivering “Birqdar TB2” drones to Kyrgyzstan last year, and during the recent conflicts, we saw some limited movements.

Regarding the reasons for the lack of attention to this conflict in the Shanghai meeting held recently in Uzbekistan, Rahimi reminded that both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have not had the desire to have third parties intervene in these conflicts and border disputes.

“Even in the military conflicts of April 2020, which had a significant intensity, both countries did not even accept Russia’s attempts to mediate in this conflict and acknowledged that this issue is a bilateral issue and they are capable of solving it alone. Finally, bilateral negotiations between the national security government committees and the ministries of foreign affairs of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan led to a ceasefire agreement and the formation of joint commissions”.

He stated that functional weaknesses and special internal procedures in organizations such as Shanghai are among the other reasons for neglecting this regional conflict and said that the topics discussed at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization two months ago and during the meetings of the Council of National Coordinators and the meeting of foreign ministers and other lower-level meetings are determined and regulated. Naturally, in an organization like Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it is not possible to put an issue on the agenda that has been happening for less than 24 hours.

Rahimi added that the functional weakness of Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the past regarding the occurrence of similar conflicts is also undeniable; But at the same time, it should also be mentioned that within the framework of the summit, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were able to quickly hold a joint meeting, and from this point of view, Shanghai Cooperation Organization created a platform to help resolve the dispute.