Dr. Mitra Rahe Nejat, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Russian gas alternatives for the European Union can be divided into six groups, adding: In previous years, North African gas was transported from Egypt and Algeria to Europe through a pipeline. , but today the sales of LNG gas is much more than the pipeline. Some 69 percent of Africa’s gas exports are made by Algeria and Egypt, the main destination of which is Europe.

Saying that North African gas exports supply 7 percent of Europe’s gas consumption, which is used by Italy, Spain, France and Turkey, she said: Algeria is the largest supplier of gas to Spain, which supplies 30 percent of the country’s needs, and is also the second largest gas supplier to Italy. While Russia supplied 21 percent of Italy’s needs; in May 2022, Italy and Algeria agreed on more gas deliveries, allowing Algeria to overtake Russia as gas supplier to Italy in the next two years.

The university professor continued: Although Egypt does not have a pipeline to be connected to Europe and sells 78 percent of its LNG to the Asian market, England is the country’s second gas export market after Pakistan. Despite the internal problems, Libya supplies 6 percent of the gas needed by Italy. Gas exporting countries in North Africa, although are second in terms of reserves, production and pipeline exports to Russia, they have the upper hand in LNG exports, because Russia depends only on the pipeline.

Saying that the total proven gas reserves of the African continent are equal to 34 percent of Russia’s resources, and North Africa’s reserves are only equal to 10 percent of Russia’s resources, she added: Africa and North Africa gas production is 36 percent and 15 percent of Russian production, respectively. In 2020, the total gas trade between Europe and Russia was nearly 185 billion cubic meters, which is about four and a half times the trade with North Africa, but only in the LNG trade the proportions seem different.

She explained: North Africa’s LNG delivery accounts for 84 percent of Europe’s imports. North Africa has helped Europe diversify its resources, which is critical to increasing security of supply. However, to replace more Russian gas, exports must increase significantly, and this is where the outlook is not entirely clear. With further reforms and encouraging investment in the local sector, boosting production and exports while slowing domestic demand growth, the region can expand its role as a gas exporter. If this does not happen, the EU will have to look for additional resources elsewhere to replace gas purchases.

The analyst of political economy reminded: Another resource of gas supply for the European Union is the Southern Gas Corridor, which is a large project consisting of four phases of exploration and development of “Shah Deniz” gas field in the Republic of Azerbaijan, the South Caucasus pipeline and its development, the Trans Anatolia Natural Gas Pipeline “TANAP”, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline “TAP” that brings gas extracted from the Caspian Sea to Europe. This project, which was completed in 2020, will transfer 10 billion cubic meters of gas to 7 European countries and provide 20 percent of the EU needs. The pipeline, which has made the Republic of Azerbaijan the main partner of the European Union, has led to the decrease in dependence of Southeast European countries on Russia.

The assistant professor of Political Economy and Public Policy Department of the Faculty of Law and Political Sciences of Allameh Tabataba’i University mentioned the energy resources of Iran, Iraq and Kurdistan as other alternatives to Russia’s resources for Europe and said: Although Iran is rich in oil and gas reserves, due to international sanctions cannot export its oil and gas to the European Union. Although international oil and gas companies are active in Iraq, the unfavorable political situation in that country is a big obstacle for large-scale investment in the development of production and export capacities, which is needed to bring its energy to Europe.

She continued: Closeness of Turkey and the government of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in recent years has opened up the option of exporting gas from north of Iraq, and this region can play a big role in supplying natural gas to Turkey. Considering the huge gas reserves of that region, if the differences between Erbil and Baghdad over the development of hydrocarbon resources and export strategy and income sharing are resolved, it can turn it into a supplier of Europe in the long term.

The member of the dean of the university referred to the negotiations between Europe and Qatar regarding supply of liquefied gas from that country and explained: Qatar is not recognized as a viable option for the upcoming winter; because larger investments must be made to transfer its gas. In fact, most of Qatar’s customers are Asians.

Rahe Nejat stated that the discovery of Leviathan and Tamar gas fields in Eastern Mediterranean Sea can turn the Zionist regime into a gas exporter in that region, adding: The two fields have estimated reserves equal to 792 billion cubic meters. Despite the export potentials, the Zionist regime’s priority is to maintain its national interests, including energy security, and 60 percent of its gas reserves must be supplied to the domestic market.

She added: The “EastMed” 1,900 km pipeline, which sends 10 billion cubic meters of Eastern Mediterranean gas to South Eastern European countries, is another project aimed at diversifying gas supply resources of European countries; but the prospect of this export path is not very clear; because it seems that the Zionist regime is more willing to supply its gas surplus at market price to the neighboring countries, especially Egypt and Jordan, rather than investing in expensive infrastructures to use European markets.

The university professor pointed out: The Zionist regime has agreed to supply 45 billion cubic meters of gas to Jordan, and negotiations are underway to supply the excess gas through a pipeline to Egypt’s LNG facility, which shows the potential path of the Zionist regime’s gas export. Another export option will be supplying gas to Turkey; but considering the political differences between the two sides, this does not seem likely in the short term.

Dr. Rahe Nejat called the Republic of Azerbaijan the best supplier to respond to the European Union’s strategy to diversify gas supply from Russia and stated: That country has long cooperated with Western energy companies in projects such as the Azeri-Chirag-Deepwater Gunashli oil project and the gas condensate project Shah Deniz both by BP’s Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Pipeline. It seems that the scope of increasing gas supply from this country depends solely on the economic potential of gas supply projects.

Further continuing, she stated that Turkmenistan’s rich gas reserves are a logical resource for supplying gas to Europe and the option of supplying gas from that country has been discussed for a long time, adding: After long and unsuccessful negotiations for the construction of the “Trans-Caspian” gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan in order to bring gas to Europe, has changed its export strategy towards China, and China has secured most of the promising and relatively cheap upstream projects, including the first two phases of the Yolotan gas field, which produces up to 60 billion cubic meters per year, and the Bagtiyarlik gas fields, which produce 15 to 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

Recalling that in 2003, Moscow succeeded in persuading Ashgabat to allocate all its gas export capacity to Gazprom for the next 25 years, the international economic analyst said: Competition with China and Russia is one of the factors against sending Turkmenistan’s gas to Europe. In addition, the need to resolve the demarcation of water borders of the Caspian Sea among the five coastal countries is also necessary to allow construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline. Of course, negotiations on that issue between Turkmenistan and the Republic of Azerbaijan, which had reached a dead end, have been revived as a result of the current crisis in Ukraine.

The professor of Allameh Tabataba’i University added: Turkey has been able to implement a relatively successful energy policy by providing a significant amount of hydrocarbons and attract huge investments for the country’s ambitious energy transportation projects. Discussions about the possibility of building “TurkStream” instead of the failed South Stream project was another example of Turkey’s key transit position vis-a-vis Europe.

Saying that the key to the diversity of Europe’s resources is in Turkey’s position, Rahe Nejat pointed out the coldness of EU-Turkey relations in the past few years and said: Helping Europe’s energy security is no longer a target in itself for Turkey. In Ankara, Europe’s energy security is seen more as a bargaining tool than a shared strategic vision. However, when it comes to Russia’s pressure on the Republic of Azerbaijan, the interests of the European Union and Turkey are completely aligned in finding more routes for export of gas from the Republic of Azerbaijan to Europe through Turkey.

In conclusion, she added: Major gas discoveries in Eastern Mediterranean on the coasts of the Zionist regime and Cyprus may be used to supply the Turkish market and transfer it to Europe, if the basic geopolitical frictions can be resolved. EU diplomatic engagement could be crucial here, persuading the Republic of Cyprus to allow a pipeline of the Zionist regime to pass through its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to the EU, and be a tool to influence Turkey’s position on other issues. Therefore, by using such alternatives, Europe can reduce its dependence on Russia, and it is possible to cut off Europe’s dependence on Russia by 2025.