Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “The Israeli regime’s airstrike on Doha and its targeting of centers associated with Hamas have not only severely challenged Qatar’s sovereignty but have also ushered the security and diplomatic equations of the Persian Gulf into a new phase.” He believes that “Tel Aviv’s action, with American support, shows that the presence of foreign forces in the region has become a factor of insecurity rather than ensuring security.” From this expert’s perspective, “American military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, which were supposed to guarantee the security of the Persian Gulf littoral states, have, in practice, failed to prevent the Israeli regime’s aggression, and this reality has created a deep gap between Washington’s promises and actions.”

Kanani Moghaddam emphasizes that “Iran had previously presented proposals for regional security cooperation, and now, with the ineffectiveness of American guarantees exposed, Arab countries will likely welcome such cooperation.” The senior international affairs analyst says: “Arab governments have now concluded that without confronting the actions of the Israeli regime, regional security cannot be assured. Therefore, they may welcome the formation of a ‘collective security pact in the region,’ which should be pursued.”

Collapse of Normalization Agreements and the Regional Pivot Eastward

Kanani Moghaddam believes that “the recent attacks by the Israeli regime have practically plunged the Abraham Accords and normalization agreements into crisis, and as a result, internal pressure on the UAE and Bahrain to reconsider relations with the Israeli regime has increased.” He points out that “the walls of the Abraham Accords have collapsed, and all promises and peace plans between the Arabs and the Israeli regime have been affected by the actions of Tel Aviv and Washington.”

According to this analyst, “the political consequences of this attack could be a shift of Arab countries toward the East and an acceleration of strengthened relations with Russia and China.” He clarifies that “countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE had previously moved toward Russian and Chinese weapons and technologies to diversify their defense equipment and reduce dependence on the United States, and now, with the aggression against Qatar, this trend will intensify.”

Kanani Moghaddam adds: “The trend of developments shows that the Israeli regime’s attack on Qatar marks the beginning of a new phase in regional interactions—a phase in which local powers must rely more than ever on their own capabilities and regional cooperation, and the role of trans-regional actors will be challenged.” In his view, “the future security and stability of the Persian Gulf require the unity of the relevant countries and joint planning to counter regional threats; otherwise, other Persian Gulf countries may also become targets of similar attacks.”