Jaafar Haqpanah stated in an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website: “Assuming the truth of the news that shows Turkish military activity in northern Syria has increased, it seems that all of this is focused on the transitional situation in Syria. We need to see what goals and priorities Turkey is pursuing in Syria at the current stage.”

Haqpanah continued: “It is assumed that Syria today has a situation similar to Iraq in the first decade after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s government. That is, the weakness of the central government’s sovereignty, the presence of numerous non-state militia groups affiliated with and supported by outsiders, and foreign penetration and intervention are evident in this country. In these circumstances, it seems that Turkey is currently seeking to repel the priority threats it specifically feels in northern Syria, and the most important of them is the continued presence and activity of Kurdish militia groups inclined to the PKK in the Kurdish cantons in northern Syria.”

This expert believes that Turkey does not want this situation to continue at all and even wants to repel this threat with a direct military presence and strengthening of militia groups such as the Free Syrian Army.

He stated that Ankara’s other goal is to stabilize and establish stability on Syria’s northern borders in a way that allows the return of refugees.

Haqpanah continued: “The third goal is to confront the movements of militia groups that can operate almost freely in Syria today. Given the weakness of the central government, the abundance of weapons in the hands of the people, and the fact that these groups have many foreign supporters, this issue can pose many threats to Turkey’s future. Therefore, Turkey is trying to take some kind of initiative by taking preemptive measures in northern Syria while repelling these threats and having the possibility of bargaining with the new Syrian government and other powers.”

The expert on Turkish affairs explained in response to whether Ankara is seeking a military presence in Syria: “In fact, this goal depends on the formation of political relations with the new government in Damascus because Turkey is not the only effective actor in this area and is not very willing to take measures that have a cost, but rather wants others to pay the cost and benefit from it; in the security aspect, it is also willing to fend off threats in the form of cooperation with its allies.”

He continued: “Turkey also established small military bases in Iraq, but it preferred to meet its security requirements in northern Iraq through cooperation with the Kurdistan Democratic Party or even the central government in Baghdad, and it continued to pursue its economic goals. This situation is also possible in the new Syria, and perhaps Turkey is seeking to achieve this, which does not mean a large military presence.”

Finally, regarding the fate of Russian military bases in Syria, Haqpanah said: “This issue is subject to considerations that will not necessarily be determined in Syria, and agreements between major powers or agreements between Moscow and Washington and the future of the war in Ukraine or Gaza are effective in this regard.”

He emphasized: “Of course, the Russians are seeking to replace their military base in Libya, but the possibility of continuing the Syrian military presence and maintaining the Tartus base is not ruled out, and the new government has not ruled out the issue. Therefore, it should be borne in mind that perhaps under certain conditions, the Russians will return to Latakia and Tartus.”